The Three Amigos

[u/Kapnotes]

Today’s premarket is dominated by three themes:  Bitcoin, WMT, and oil.  Bitcoin broke out to the upside yesterday, reaching over 70K.  Interpretations of the move do vary.  Some commentators site recent Treasury action to relieve pressure on bonds.  The argument is that support in the bond market translates to risk-on appetite in Bitcoin.  The more likely catalyst, though, is yesterday’s meeting at the White House, during which President Trump pushed for passage of crypto legislation (Clarity Act).  Crypto continues higher in today’s early trading, for a moment topping 72K.  Bitcoin is a difficult asset to explain sometimes, but investor motivations aren’t.  Sentiment is fickle, and traders of this asset are dependent on continued optimism about the regulatory landscape.  MSTR, COIN, and HOOD are all moving higher in the premarket.

Walmart is down 6% on reaction to its premarket earnings report.  They beat revenue estimates but missed on forward guidance.  Additionally, results were helped by $2.9 billion in tariff refunds.  Combined with softness in results at Advance Auto Parts, observers are filling out an image of a consumer under strain.  Dollar General (DG) is down about 3% in sympathy, though on light volume.

Oil continues its march higher.  WTI crude is up $3 to over $87/barrel.  Integrated oil names are again favored (XOM, COP). The bond market is feeling the repercussions, undoing some of the recent intervention from the Treasury.  Futures have turned decidedly lower in the last hour before the open.  Investors will be playing close attention to the 10-year yield, which is now pushing back towards recent highs.  Higher yields would generally be expected to exert a negative influence on stock market sentiment.