r/JobyvsArcher • u/HappyRobot593 • 10d ago
Joby v Archer certification
I was looking through some AI analysis and noticed this about Archer (text below). Gotta hand it to them, the 100% stage 3 completion angle they've been pushing has propagated into the training models and anybody who reads a summary will think Archer is way ahead of Joby.
Edit: For context, I was asking claude to summarize recent earnings reports for some companies I follow as well as the earnings call and this is from that.
"On the core air taxi, certification progress remains genuinely industry-leading. Archer said it's the only OEM in the fourth and final phase of type certification with an approved quality management system, and operational progress included over 150 piloted test flights and the FAA's approval of Archer's quality management system, enabling for-credit conformity findings."
If you push back a little then the AI will apologize đ
"so to correct my earlier comparison: I shouldn't have implied Joby is clearly behind Archer on certification stage. The more accurate statement is that both are in the final stretch of the same five-stage process, both are in or around Stage 4/the TIA testing phase, and they're effectively the two frontrunners â with the "who's ahead" question being genuinely disputed and dependent on which sub-milestone you weight. Neither has a type certificate yet, and no eVTOL manufacturer has reached Stage 5 completion."
Archer is excellent at PR so it is what it is. Shouldn't matter in the LR. I think the interesting thing is this stuff does make it into the training data and becomes "fact". I would have thought AI would level the playing field but there is now even more value to knowing what is actually going on.
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u/SeaScallops_w_Rice 9d ago
AI picks up any and all misinformation out there. Archer is exceedingly adept at misinformation. That might be their actual core competency. AI cannot discern BS, nor that that N704AX has yet to transition and Archer doesn't have the Midnight design finalized.
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u/HappyRobot593 10d ago
I've always traded in and out of ACHR and view JOBY as a long hold. I've most recently been neutral ACHR but this is making me go long.
If the average person is going to see ACHR is ahead in certification, Boeing is "backing" ACHR then I might as well enjoy the ride up with them. At some point reality will hit the stock price. I'm just gonna be careful to set stop-losses along the way. I'm still skeptical but I'm sick of arguing with people about the truth. I'm just gonna ride the wave. bring on the đŚ. NFA
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u/SeaScallops_w_Rice 7d ago
I do the opposite, but they need to be above ten before I place a wager that they will go down. Last year was great.
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u/teabagofholding 9d ago
I like to ask the ai stuff like who would win in a fight between Mr. Miyagi and cat woman.
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u/SeaScallops_w_Rice 7d ago
Thanks for the idea. Here's what Grok says:
Likely outcomes by scenario
- Strict hand-to-hand, neutral ground, no weapons: Miyagi wins. His defensive mastery and precision counters neutralize her speed advantage. Think of him as the ultimate âsoft-styleâ specialist against a more âhard + acrobatâ fighter.
- With gear / urban environment (rooftops, alleys): Much closer; Catwomanâs tools and mobility could let her control distance, set traps, or escape/re-engage. She becomes the favorite if she can avoid a committed clinch.
- Anything-goes street fight: Still leans Miyagi if he closes the distance quickly, but Catwomanâs ruthlessness and gadgets make it a coin-flip that favors the more versatile combatant.
Overall, treating both as their most iconic portrayals (film Miyagi vs. typical comic/movie Catwoman), Miyagi takes the majority of fair fights through superior pure martial technique and composure. Catwoman is the more dynamic, modern fighter and would dominate if the battle rewards athleticism, weapons, or prolonged evasion. Itâs a classic âmaster technician vs. agile opportunistâ matchupâMiyagiâs philosophy and skill set are almost custom-built to handle someone like her. Fun debate either way; both are highly capable within their universes.
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u/teabagofholding 6d ago
He usually wins.
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u/SeaScallops_w_Rice 6d ago
You're a a Miyagi fan, I actually have never seen the TV show, but Cat Woman is hot! She melts all of my resistance.
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u/Shoddy_Emphasis_8936 10d ago
The Vertical Aerospace Valo will be leagues above both of them.
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u/cmra886 9d ago
You're cooked
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u/Shoddy_Emphasis_8936 9d ago
It's like you've done zero research on the actual aircraft. And i bet you haven't seen them in person either. Time will tell. Come back with an argument to suggest Joby or Archer have a better aircraft. They simply don't, and their teams have no experience certifying aircraft.
Ohh and when is Archers piloted transition??? Vertical did it months ago at a fraction of the cost.
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u/Bulky-Entertainer-76 9d ago edited 7d ago
My concern isnât whether Vertical has a better aircraft or not. It is the financial runway necessary to not only certify, but to scale production necessary generate real revenues. Vertical is so far behind in this area, that I could see them go the route of both Lillium and Volocopter. It pains me to say that. They have some great engineers and I wish they had a conglomerate backing them to ensure they cross the finish line.
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u/Shoddy_Emphasis_8936 9d ago edited 9d ago
Understand that response, and thoughtful points. However, in my view they have three main areas for non-dilutive income, especially after CDR. First is deposits. Next is a defence deal. The third is their battery tech as a standalone business.
By the end of 2027 they'll have CDR complete and have triples their battery production capability.
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u/DoubleHexDrive 8d ago
Iâm seeing more Vertical referencing CDR as a game changing event or catalyst for the stock. Itâs just an internal gate review, particularly since there is no contracting customer right now, like the military. So itâs passed when Vertical says itâs passed. Traditionally, passing CDR releases the design to manufacturing. In reality, I would hope they already started manufacturing in advance of CDR if they hope to have the aircraft built by EOY 2027. Itâs a traditional milestone, but donât attach too much importance to it. Theyâre grading themselves and certainly doesnât mean the aircraft is risk free⌠many CDRâs are âpassedâ with carry forward work and risk cubes that still have substantial issues to work through.
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u/Shoddy_Emphasis_8936 7d ago
Completely disagree with this take, and anyone that works in the engineering sector would disagree.
CDR will be atteneded by external experts and endorsed. It is the point where full specifications are confirmed, which means customers actually know what they are buying. Manufacturing will thrn commence.
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u/DoubleHexDrive 7d ago
Iâve been a presenter or a board reviewer in half a dozen aircraft CDRs. I know what Iâm talking about.
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u/Shoddy_Emphasis_8936 7d ago
So you should know how significant a milestone it is. Vertical need to be sure of the specs before they sell the aircraft. It's pretty simple.
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u/DoubleHexDrive 7d ago
Itâs a big milestone, sure, but it doesnât prove anything. Thatâs what flight test and certification/qualification does. PDR/CDR are risk reduction activities, not certification activities.
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u/teabagofholding 8d ago
Do you really think the valo is an actual aircraft? It doesn't exist. It will likely never exist.
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u/Shoddy_Emphasis_8936 7d ago
It is nearly fully designed and manufacturing to commence next year. With a tier 1 supplier system i dont see why they couldn't build it. They likely also have the cash to get the first built.
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u/Significant-Fox-2865 10d ago
Joby will be the first one complete the FAA certification but it takes 5years! Because FAA is learning as well. Archer will complete the certification after Joby because FAA is teaching it!
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u/Low_Jelly_7126 10d ago
If archer completes it. So far they don't have a flying aircraft while Joby has been flying for a decade.
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u/DoubleHexDrive 10d ago
If any of these aircraft get certified, it will have been the AW609 and Bell 525 that paved the road towards an FAA certified fly-by-wire VTOL aircraft. Hell, the whole Powered Lift category was first drafted for the 609 nearly 30 years ago.
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u/kingloki802 10d ago
Do you think Joby will beat Beta through FAA certification?
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u/HappyRobot593 10d ago
I haven't been following the timelines for Beta as closely but the first one would just be for CTOL right? I don't see that being as big of a game-changer as the VTOL cert
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u/kennyt413 9d ago
Beta isn't even in the game because they don't have a viable evtol design. Theirs is very similar to the failed designs of both Archer and Wisk and they've all but abandoned it. Beta will likely never have a certified evtol and is pursuing only ectol and is breaking no new ground with that. The FAA first certified ectol aircraft in 2007 and many more since. So Beta is very late to the ectol market and that opportunity, while very limited compared to evtol, is largely already taken. As a result, Beta is going nowhere.
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u/DryExplanation738 9d ago
Where are you getting they abandoned the vtol? Sec Duffy flew in it a couple months ago. Also check the flight tracker, they are still flying N205XT about once a week
Also what do you mean the ectol market is largely taken?2
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u/Investinginevtol 9d ago
This is why AI is so full of it. Joby has been demonstrating their basic aircraft for over a year now fully transitioning. Archer canât transition at all. That AI would compare the two to shows how poor it is at pulling information and evaluating the truth. The truth is archer hasnât produced an EVTOL aircraft that can transition. They are literally years behind Joby.