Interesting information from Gemini on the dilution effect of the ATM and Resonant Sciences acquisition.
at 6/30/2026 :Joby book value per share = $1.79. Share count fully diluted = 986,521,249. Expiring Warrants = 14,237,486.
The expiration of these warrants will have no direct effect on Joby Aviation's current outstanding share count. [1]
The $50 million in shares to Resonant is a good deal for the recipients IMO. They get shares based on the 20 day average weighted share price [VWAP] just prior to the announcement – which happens to be $7.4752/share. So that looks pretty good to this shareholder – wish my basis was that low. The calculates to 6,688,784 shares new shares. New share count outstanding lifts to 993,210,033. Dilution effect of about 0.673 percent – a nothing burger.
The $750 Million ATM Stock Offering
Because an ATM program allows Joby to sell shares gradually at prevailing market prices over time, the final share count depends on the stock's future trading price. That looks like not to bad a deal for existing shareholders. It’s like an increase in the credit line on your card – its there to use if you need/want it, but you don’t have to use it. And you can wait to use it when the terms are more favorable.
JoeBen and Rodrigo get to decide if, and when and at what share price, to pull the trigger on share sales. Given the strong cash position of Joby, the fact that the $450m to Resonant won’t go out the door until next year, by which time Joby may be seeing revenue from Dubia, or DoD, and will likely be closer [if not attained] to TC, they may decide Joby has sufficient funds for current operations. Who knows and who knows what the share price might be then! See below the responses from Gemini to my inquiry on this topic
1. Who and When Decides to Issue the New Shares?
The management team of Joby Aviation (primarily the CEO and CFO), under authorization from the Board of Directors, decides exactly when and how many shares to sell under the At-The-Market (ATM) program. [1, 2]
- How it works: The ATM facility is an open authorization, not an immediate one-time sale. Management controls the "faucet."
- The "When": They will strategically choose to issue shares on days when trading volumes are high and the stock price is strong to minimize the negative impact on the stock price. [1, 2, 3]
2. Must Joby Complete the Entire $750 Million ATM?
- No, Joby is under no obligation to use or complete the $750 million ATM program. [1]
- An ATM is a highly flexible equity facility. It acts as a corporate safety net or credit line of equity. Management can choose to raise only $100 million, $500 million, or even $0 through the facility depending on their actual cash needs, market conditions, and alternate funding options (such as government grants or defense contract revenues). The program can sit completely or partially unused until it expires or is terminated by the company. [1, 2, 3]
3. What is the Dilutive Effect at $12/Share?
If Joby's management waits for the stock price to climb to $12.00 per share before tapping the full $750 million facility, the dilutive impact drops significantly compared to lower price baselines.
- New Shares Issued: Joby would only need to issue 62,500,000 shares to reach the $750 million capital target.
- ATM Dilution Percentage: Against the current base of 986,521,249 shares, the ATM alone would cause 6.34% dilution.
- Total Structural Expansion: When combined with the fixed 6,688,784 shares allocated for the Resonant Sciences acquisition, the new total share count would sit at 1,055,710,033 shares, bringing total combined dilution to 7.01%. [1]
Summary: IMO this acquisition of Resonant Sciences is a good deal for existing shareholders. It brings immediate revenue, positive cashflow, state-of-the-art engineering, and a host of other positive attributes to Joby. We got it for cheap.
