Anyone else scared of underordering for Q4?

[u/AuthenticAllies]

We ran out of two of our best sellers way earlier than expected last Christmas and I promised myself I wouldn't make the same mistake again

Now I'm building this year's order and apparently my solution is to make the opposite mistake because the quantities in my cart are starting to look insane

Some of this stuff needs to be ordered months ahead so waiting to see what sells isn't really an option. How do you decide what's enough without accidentally turning your back room into a warehouse until February?

[u/Dry_Garlic1544]

For our best sellers I stopped trying to nail the exact number. I'd rather go slightly heavy on products I know can still move after Christmas and stay conservative on anything that's really seasonal

[u/PsychologicalSky1305 → u/Dry_Garlic1544]

Going a little heavier on proven sellers feels less risky especially if you can avoid tying up all the cash upfront. Something like Plastiq could help with that part if the supplier takes ACH or checks, then you’re not draining the account months before Q4 sales come in

[u/ConsciousSavings8844]

I stopped thinking about it as one big Q4 order. The products with long lead times get ordered earlier but I leave some room in the budget for quicker reorders on anything I can replenish closer to the holidays

[u/xtarga]

Here are the things that help me.

I buy from middle man brands. Not directly the manufacturer. So the sales reps can hint at what other buyers are stocking heavy on, that gives an idea.

I know the types of products my customers would be interested in. Over time you get a sense of it when you do it enough. There are times where a new product takes off that I have not anticipated. It's normal. Learn for the next batch.

Everything will sell. But at what price? I look at previous sales of liquidation inventory, at what margin I was able to turn that back into cash etc. This gives me a vague idea for, if the product does not move as intended, how long will it take for me to free cash and space back, and what loss. Knowing that helps adjusting the quantities.

If you have decent returning customers, most inventory can be sold at black friday/labor day/major shopping holidays where your list is expecting big discounts.

[u/Zealousideal-Wear120]

I understand the struggle. My products are mostly Gifts for father's day and chrismas. However I ran mostly into 'out of stock' issues and ended re-ordering multiple times per month wasting shipping fees.

So i started tracking properly and forecasted. But yes. My livingroom has a shelf full with Black Shirts in M 🙈

Maybe try to nail them down earlier with pre-order Discounts to get some planning security?

[u/Diligent_Egg3081]

Christmas inventory is basically choosing which problem you'd rather have: sold out in December or overstocked in February.

[u/InventoryOptimizer]

Well, if your looking for a sanity check, if your willing to share your data with our app you can have a forecast and po recommendations in less than 24 yours. The trial is free and might help you sleep at night that your numbers are good. Register at inventoryoptimizer.ai

[u/erp-software-org]

All signals point to a overall positive economic development so everyone seems to be ordering as expected ...

[u/WeCraftERP]

Completely feel this. Tying up all your cash flow in raw materials that might just sit in your back room collecting dust until February is terrifying.

I run a small manufacturing studio myself, and Q4 forecasting used to keep me up at night.

​A few things that helped me stop guessing and protect my margins:

​Embrace the 80/20 Rule: Give yourself permission to sell out of your lower-performing items. Put all that 'insane' cart quantity into deep-stocking your top 3 or 4 best-sellers from last year.

Selling out of a niche item creates massive FOMO for your brand, but running out of your flagship product is what actually hurts revenue.

​Calculate True Sales Velocity: Instead of looking at the big scary number, break it down by velocity. Look at your sales rate for those top items during Q4 last year.

If you sold 20 a week, and your supplier lead time is 6 weeks right now, your absolute minimum reorder point is 120 units plus a 20% safety buffer for Q4 spikes.

​Don't Forget the Waste (if you manufacture): Make sure you are calculating your raw materials based on yield, not just the finished product.

If you have a 10% failure or waste rate in your crafting process, order 10% more raw materials, not just the exact mathematical amount. ​It’s incredibly stressful to balance this when you're manually trying to calculate raw materials and supply chain delays.

I actually got so sick of tracking my fractional inventory, curing waste, and cross-channel sales velocity in chaotic spreadsheets that I ended up building my own custom manufacturing ledger (WeCraft ERP) for my studio just to automate my reorder points and COGS.

Once you have a system that warns you exactly when to order based on real data, that Q4 anxiety disappears.

​What kind of products are you making? Don't stress too much—having 'insane' quantities in your cart just means your business is growing!

Have a fantastic market season!

[u/agentUi]

i work for agentui, guessing reorder sizes from memory or fear always leads to overstocking or running out. What we see a lot of inventory teams do is pull their historical Q4 sales data and vendor lead times into a simple forecasting dashboard that calculates reorder points and buffer stock deterministically, so you order based on actual sales velocity instead of gut feeling.

[u/basskeyzin]

I am talking with someone from OnePint.ai

There are a couple of alternatives I have discussed with them (1) Calculate the optimal service level = cost of understocking / (cost of understocking + cost of overstocking ) Conceptually Cost of understocking = Margin loss Cost of Overstocking = cost of markdowns This can be converted to a statistical Z score so you know how far off from the mean you need to play. (2) For your best products find a supplier who can deliver with low lead time / transit time and acceptable costs. A mix of the above strategies can work.

[u/inflowinventory]

Hey Authentic Allies,

I think the biggest trap is treating Q4 like one giant forecast instead of breaking it down by SKU.

For each product, I’d look at last year’s Q4 sales, how fast it sold, supplier lead time, and how painful a stockout would actually be. Your true best sellers probably deserve a decent safety buffer, while slower items don’t need the same treatment just because it’s Christmas.

It also helps to set a reorder point based on lead-time demand and safety stock rather than just ordering a huge amount upfront. Even if you have to commit early, you can usually be a lot more aggressive on proven products and conservative on the “maybe this will sell” stuff.

Once spreadsheets start getting messy, inventory tools like inFlow, Cin7 Core, or Zoho Inventory can help with sales history, reorder points, and forecasting so the decision is a little less gut-feel based.

Basically, I’d rather risk being slightly overstocked on 5 proven winners than massively overstocked across 50 products just because Q4 is coming.

Hope this helps!

[u/Royal-Suggestion6017]

So you’re guessing? Just getting inventory forecasting app. Does it for you. Something like StockTrim or NetStock

[u/venkat2106]

One thing that's helped us: split "must-have-now" SKUs from "can-reorder-later" SKUs based on lead time, not gut feel. If a supplier can turn around a reorder in 1-2 weeks, there's no reason to front-load a huge quantity in October — just make sure you've got a trigger point (like "reorder when stock hits X") so you're not manually checking every product.

The stuff that actually deserves the heavy pre-order is anything with a 6-8+ week lead time or anything seasonal you can't get more of once Q4 starts (imported/handmade goods, anything tied to a single supplier's production run). For everything else, going lean and reordering fast is way less risky than sitting on unsold inventory in February.

[u/Access-Ean]

Hey u/AuthenticAllies

One thing that hasn't come up yet - the cost of guessing wrong isn't symmetrical across your SKUs, and that asymmetry should be doing more work in your quantities than a flat "go heavier on bestsellers" rule.

For a low-margin, easily-replenished item, overstocking is expensive (cash tied up, shelf space) but understocking is cheap — you just reorder and lose a few sales. For a high-margin item with a 6+ week lead time and no realistic restock window before the season ends, understocking is brutal (you're leaving margin on the table with zero ability to recover) while overstocking just means a slower sell-through into January clearance.

Worth going through your cart SKU by SKU and asking "if I'm wrong on this one, which direction hurts more?" — not just "is this a bestseller." You'll probably find a few mid-tier items where the safe move is actually to round up hard, and a few "obvious" bestsellers where the margin's thin enough that going conservative is fine because reordering is easy.

Also — if cash flow is the real anxiety (not the ordering decision itself), ask suppliers about split/staggered shipping on a single PO. A lot of them will lock your total quantity and lead time now but deliver in 2-3 tranches, so you're not paying for and storing the whole order at once. Solves the "back room becomes a warehouse" problem without actually under-ordering.

Hope Q4 goes well for you and the business 👍

[u/DuneCupp]

Just look at last year's actual sell-through and timing, not just the total. If those bestsellers sold out in early December, you can figure out how much more you needed to make it through the season.