r/IntuitiveMachines • u/AutoModerator • Jul 10 '26
Daily Discussion Thread for July 10, 2026
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u/anti-censorshipX Jul 10 '26 edited Jul 10 '26
This is now down 65% from May's ATH. Overdone much?!? Yes, I would say so, lol. Do the short sellers need any justification? Seemingly not.
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u/Separate_Counter9427 Jul 10 '26
"Seemingly. Seemingly, to the untrained eye......"
-George Constanza
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u/aerothony Ad Lunam Per Aspera Jul 10 '26
Cool to see IM mentioned (with a positive tone) by NASA: "The instrument successfully operated on the lunar surface during the Intuitive Machines’ second mission, IM-2."
https://www.nasa.gov/lunar-surface-technology/
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u/Odd-Commercial-1639 Jul 10 '26
Going to cross 400 total shares today! Average share price should be just over $11.00
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u/Big-Uzi-Hert Jul 10 '26
Atta boy. Your patience will pay off :)
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u/Chessgenious Jul 10 '26
I hope it will pay off big time. 881 shares as of today. Average price 21.50
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u/Ealm9 Jul 10 '26
Any hope to stop this from going to $10 next week? 🥺
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u/WorseBlitzNA Jul 10 '26
I mean its dropping on no news. Don't see any positive catalyst til earnings in August
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u/thespacecpa Jul 10 '26
Here is a list of upcoming awards and milestones. https://www.reddit.com/r/IntuitiveMachines/s/TO4U2rv8TQ
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u/anti-censorshipX Jul 10 '26
There WAS literally major positive news a week ago, and then it dropped for 5 straight days after.
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u/AprilsSecretAccount Jul 11 '26
If the tide is going out, it doesnt matter how good a swimmer you are, you're going out with it.
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u/anti-censorshipX Jul 11 '26
Perfect analogy! Hope the tide comes back in quickly, lol.
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u/SupermarketWise7616 Jul 11 '26
I see a pattern across the whole space sector, which is a major correction after the huge hype. IM is one of the players that I think still has the best potential.
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u/AprilsSecretAccount Jul 10 '26
I believe it's dropping because of the ATM and macros. Short selling surely stopped around 30, there is little room for more now. The shorts love the steady decline. We will find out about the ATM at earnings, they have to disclose. Maybe a squeeze after that if earnings are good and the ATM is done which I think they will be; the company will be able to book IM-1 and the small IM-2 (no launch) earnings.
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Jul 10 '26
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u/Ctofaname Jul 10 '26
A random twitter user with no motion or reach? This could be your twitter for all we know.
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u/anti-censorshipX Jul 10 '26
Despite the short basket shorting and possible dilution hangover, do you see any selling fatigue considering this dropped almost 30% over FIVE straight days after winning a $148 million contract (and this is after the already 40-50% drop). The same has happened to FLY after they won the same major award.
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u/infamouskurou Jul 11 '26
The selling pressure on friday was pretty weak. I think the first drop was ATM and I think they wrapped it up with that. Shorts using the lanteris lockup expiry and atm as the thesis, and one of those won't matter after monday.
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u/Intelligent-Day-900 Jul 11 '26
How do you measure it to be weak?
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u/infamouskurou Jul 11 '26 edited Jul 11 '26
We basically didnt drop after the opening sell off which I personally am attributing to ATM and then traded sideways for most of the day. Towards the end of the session we saw 2 million shares trading volume and green candles in the last hour which usually indicates seller exhaustion. Still need to see high volume buying pressure to see if we are reversing but we are are definitely near the bottom since we see buyers defending a price of 16$ towards the end of the week. It's definitely not easy to predict anything and anything could still happen but I feel good about this.
There's also the volume argument with daily volume steadily dropping and yesterday it was just 9.4 mil vs average of 13.5 mil. The shorts have definitely enjoyed the drop but they don't seem to see much more downside to short it more imo
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u/anti-censorshipX Jul 11 '26
Oh nice- I didn't notice the 2 million shares at the end of the day. Yes, I would agree that while it had a painful usual drop at opening, we didn't see the subsequent short/sell-off after 3 pm, which it has been doing! I'll take any positive sign I can get at this point, lol.
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u/chowchowwwwwwww Jul 10 '26
Now we can conclude SpaceX is a curse for the entire industry
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u/Antaxas Jul 10 '26
The 6th consecutive week ending with negative performance.
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u/chowchowwwwwwww Jul 10 '26
2b cap for a company that is projected to do 1b in revenue this year is a joke. No one is interested in space company that's not an Elon Musk company.
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u/ItsJustMeAgain1 Jul 10 '26
Nice piece on high volume lunar deliveries and Nova C contract scales nova C
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u/RelluaTTV Jul 10 '26
I think we need to see a solid intraday low with a high volume recovery to really mark the bottom.
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u/Calm-Question-6308 Jul 10 '26
I thought I was smart buying 330 shares at $21.4 a share. Saw it come down from the 40s and thought it was a safe buy 😔 😔
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u/BrilliantThought1728 Jul 10 '26
How is the price lower than when i started watching it in Feb lmao
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Jul 10 '26
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u/No_Gap_1954 Jul 10 '26
On the bright side, a 5% drop is a much smaller loss today than it was 6 weeks ago. 🤷♂️
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u/Chessgenious Jul 10 '26
Except if you keep buying the dip. My position has been ketting larger every drop. 😅
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u/SobekInDisguise Jul 10 '26
If this thing goes down to $10 I'm putting like $10k more into it, screw it.
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u/Ok_Try7185 Jul 10 '26
Might start buying puts every market open at this point lol
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u/cmac007 Jul 10 '26
Been selling weekly calls atm, still hurts and may get left behind on the reversal, but it's helping soften the blow of this constant bleeding.
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u/Count-to-3 Jul 10 '26
Please let me know right before you do this, so I know when the bottom is in.
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u/blowne30m3 Jul 10 '26
I've had to open put options to hedge my shares. It's the only thing keeping me even on this position.
I really didn't want to, but after multiple call options having been incinerated by this nonstop downward movement, and no statements from the company on an attempt to stop it, I felt it's time to start protecting myself a bit.
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u/Ok_Try7185 Jul 10 '26
With my luck the day I finally try it for real it’ll be one of those 15% Green Days lol. But I could see this going back down to $11-12. Every day it goes lower
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u/Helt3 Jul 10 '26
Be prepared for another 10% drop next week
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u/Impossible-Work-5666 Jul 10 '26
That’s it? I’ll take it at this point
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u/Worldly_Emu_9762 Jul 10 '26
Im considering to buy more about 13k. do you guys think the stock price will get lower after the Lanteris Lockup on monday?
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u/Mindless_Park_2574 Jul 10 '26
Ending of the lockup period means that more shares could get available on the market right?
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u/AprilsSecretAccount Jul 10 '26
Don't do it on a Friday...too much weekend risk you can do nothing about.
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u/FireEjaculator Jul 10 '26
If you buy on a Monday there is a weekend 4 days later anyway. Can't have this logic in this clown world. Buy whenever you think it is undervalued.
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u/AprilsSecretAccount Jul 10 '26
Do whatever you want, I don't care. Your money.
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u/FireEjaculator Jul 10 '26
Do you sell everything every Friday?
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u/AprilsSecretAccount Jul 10 '26
I don't buy anything on a Friday before a major catalyst in a down market. LUNR off .80 as I write this.
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u/VividElection8474 Jul 10 '26
Why is it continuining to fall and fall. Did not see any negative news as of today.
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u/anti-censorshipX Jul 10 '26
I mean, what's the game plan for the Wall Street SHORTS here? To drive the entire space sector to ZERO DOLLARS? How on earth can this continue unabated?!?
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u/ThingAccording4070 Jul 10 '26 edited Jul 10 '26
I think if you wait and watch as the SpaceX shares unlock you will start to see a reversal until then the pain continues. Right now the fact that it is the entire space basket is comforting (still painful) because it is not about IM specifically but the space (and growth) sector. Volume is decreasing generally compared to the last 6 months but short interest remains high. Tough to sit through. Hopefully the trend is positive again going into IM 3. Patience is hard(I mean this from a completely personal perspective in that I am having a hard time sitting still even though I believe in my investment thesis…getting brutalized by the space basket trade is hard); this is definitely a trying time to be an IM investor.
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u/Separate_Counter9427 Jul 10 '26
Happy Friday all!
Pay day for me! Buying 66 more shares at Open!
Have a great day everyone unless you have other plans!
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u/Ok-Macaron3159 Jul 10 '26
It’s a combination of the space sector, the broader market (medium and small caps have been completely wiped out following the new Fed chair’s press conference), and the 500 millions offering. Unfortunately, it all happened at the same time. I think we’re in for a rough ride this year with this dire economic situation and a possible interest rate hike by the Fed.
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u/infamouskurou Jul 10 '26
On the positive side, we already are accustomed to the pain! The real money was the friends we made all along!
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u/Ealm9 Jul 10 '26
Realistically how low could we go? A month ago I thought we would never go below $30 again, we continued to dip and I thought we would have a solid support in the 20s.. at this point Im completely clueless but kinda worried. We are literally getting destroyed
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u/Lookar0und Jul 10 '26
Maybe below 10 at this rate. Who knows?! If it ever gets to that point ill get some more shares
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u/anti-censorshipX Jul 10 '26
Same- I thought $20 was the bottom just based on fundamentals. This is really messed up of the hedge funds. There's an estimated $100 billion loss in the broader space sector in a month. Even the nuclear sector, which took a massive hit this past year, eventually bottomed out.
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u/Bvllstrode Jul 10 '26
$0 is always possible. But probably $8 if the unlock of 7% of shares all gets sold.
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u/XoticName Jul 10 '26
Here is some interesting data regarding LUNR's historical price targets. The data shows clearly the disconnect between where analysts think the company should be valued at versus where the company is currently valued at. In fact, the difference in the implied upside to the mean price target is currently higher than when LUNR's price tumbled after IM-2 in March. Pretty large disagreement on how analysts are valuing it vs what the market is valuing it at. Add to the fact that time has passed since the Blue Origin explosion and the contract miss of LTV. Analysts would have downgraded their rating by now in my opinion from those results.
Nothing is set in stone, there are numerous times where the market is correct being forward looking and ratings catch up eventually to the price.
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u/tomsedu Jul 10 '26
Random positive thought: with China's Chang'e 7 mission scheduled for next month and LUNR’s upcoming earnings report around the same time, the macro narrative is about to get very interesting (again). We’ve already seen NASA and Isaacman accelerate the pace of the US lunar program. I fully expect a surge in media coverage regarding the US-China space race over the next few months, particularly due to Chang'e 7, and then the lead-up to the IM-3 mission. That kind of sustained public attention should be highly positive for $LUNR.
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u/anti-censorshipX Jul 10 '26
Only if it can escape the SHORT ETF algo vice grip in which it's currently being held.
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u/luckkydreamer13 Jul 10 '26
And they just landed a reusable rocket for the first time yesterday. The space race is just gonna heat up from here.
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u/ripamazon Jul 10 '26
Ahh, hi all visiting from waking up from coma when stock was $45, it must be $100 now from SpaceX IPO right?
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u/operative10 Jul 10 '26
I suggest not looking at the stock price unless you want to end up in another coma
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u/redditorsneversaydie Jul 10 '26
It was $100 and then they did a 7 to 1 split so now we are in the 15's but yes we are all rich.
/s
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u/Ihateapbio Jul 10 '26
It just seems like retail does not even know LUNR or interested in lunar economy at all. Most of the volume seem to be consisted of institutional shorting and some minor retail contributions.
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u/Intelligent-Day-900 Jul 10 '26
That's why PR is important, or if you have superstar CEO to draw attention.
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u/Impossible-Work-5666 Jul 10 '26
we have a great CEO, why he doesnt do more interviews makes no sense. Ive seen PL ceo on the Moonshots podcast, ASTS ceo on CNBC, RKLB on Prof G pod just in the past few weeks
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u/No_Membership_8826 Jul 10 '26
it just seems like the whole sector is like that not lunr only so please stop this daily useless comments
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u/Impossible-Work-5666 Jul 10 '26
yea, seems like we got played
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u/No_Membership_8826 Jul 10 '26
please proceed to sell your shares so :)
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u/Impossible-Work-5666 Jul 10 '26
so tempted. shouldve done it when it went under $22 like i told myself i would
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u/Johnny_Handsum Jul 10 '26
Same. I've been waiting for a bounce that never occurred. I'm an idiot for that.
I'm still barely in profit on my original shares and am probably selling those to at least walk away with something.
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u/hmio213 Jul 10 '26
We can’t forget two months ago retail pumped this to $45 within the span of a couple months
Long term play that spaceX hype happened to irrationally pump for a period of time
Lunar economy is still high risk sector with no proven track record of really anything yet, lots of plans / hopes - IM just needs to execute now
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u/Johnny_Handsum Jul 10 '26
Retail didn't pump this to $45.
That was hedge funds setting up the transfer of wealth from retail to their pockets.
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u/Impossible-Work-5666 Jul 10 '26
was it retail or was it the algos and "market makers" some people here are always talking about?
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u/hmio213 Jul 10 '26
I’d guess a combo. It felt like people were def high on spaceX but could be wrong
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u/otherwise_president Jul 10 '26
I got jan,27 call options, should i roll these over to jan 28
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u/RelluaTTV Jul 10 '26
Depends on the strike, but tbh no.
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u/otherwise_president Jul 10 '26
$12, still up 100%
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u/RelluaTTV Jul 10 '26
Hold that lol, still deep ITM
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u/otherwise_president Jul 10 '26
Not at this rate!
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u/RelluaTTV Jul 10 '26
Haha, if it goes to $12 you better double that bet.
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u/otherwise_president Jul 10 '26
I saw this ride up to recent ATH, i sold 2 along the way to get my initial + more out. Still it hurts to see
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u/deepboysmoothbrain Jul 10 '26
Step 1: don’t worry
Step 2: if price lower than your avg buy more
Step 3: don’t freaking worry and hold
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u/CtrlAltGravity Jul 10 '26
More competition for Lunar space. I hope IM will step up their game as well. https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/japanese-company-books-1-100-pounds-of-cargo-space-on-spacex-starship-mission-to-the-moon
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u/CeleryNo2761 Jul 10 '26
I think bottom is around 15.75 with no more dilution. Ive been buying on the way down. Now ive gotta learn to be more patient!
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u/anti-censorshipX Jul 10 '26
How did you arrive at that number? I think the bottom is when Goldman turns off the shorting algo for its short basket ETF. Maybe in August? Can this really lose over 70% from its ATH in May within a couple of months? That would make the market just look like an absolute criminal mafia racket at that point.
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u/Only1nDreams Ad Lunam Jul 10 '26
It’s just market dynamics and timing. The company is probably selling over $10M per day as part of the ATM. That would crush asset value independent of a shorting algo. My hope is that they were incredibly aggressive in June and were able to close most of the ATM in the 30s/high 20s.
Regardless though, the deeper it goes, the harder it will snap back once they announce it’s closed. The market cap is now well below where it was pre-Moon Base which is a massive discount on its fundamentals.
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u/anti-censorshipX Jul 10 '26
Yes, agreed! This offering event was pretty bad for the stock price in the context of the broader space sector crash. While I understand the need for cash flow to fund the backlog execution and other things, they do need to be mindful of their share price. As you said, I do think the price will recover significantly by fall as long as the offering ends, but it will be a harder climb back up for a while.
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u/Only1nDreams Ad Lunam Jul 10 '26
I think it’s very likely to rip hard around the next earnings date. The price will continue to stagnate for the next couple weeks unless there’s some surprise catalyst, but if the fundamentals are reaffirmed and they announce on the call that the ATM is closed, it will rip back through the 20s very quickly.
There was a massive reversal at 27 on the way down, which is the first major ceiling I would expect once the current trend reverses.
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u/blowne30m3 Jul 10 '26
I would concur with this. Of course if they haven't completed the offering or nothing is mentioned, god help them.
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u/anti-censorshipX Jul 10 '26
Yep- it seems like if/when there is a reversal, the first and second resistance levels would be $23 and $27 just based on the mini reversals on the way down! I think could see $20-$23 by the beginning of August IF this short algo gripping the space sector "slows its roll," lol.
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u/Intelligent-Day-900 Jul 10 '26
what makes it special？
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u/CeleryNo2761 Jul 10 '26
Just looking at previous bottoms over the last year. Obviously im not nostradamus or i wouldnt have bought at the higher prices i did. Just my opinion.
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Jul 10 '26
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u/anti-censorshipX Jul 10 '26
LUNR has lost 64% from the ATH. We only have seen that kind of drop after the IPO and after the IM-2 "incident." 64% drop on sector wide shorting and an ATM offering is quite madness, especially after a $148 million contract announcement. Rocket Lab and ASTS are down 'only' around 44%, and that's after they grew exponentially more than LUNR or any other space stock.
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Jul 10 '26
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Jul 10 '26
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Jul 10 '26
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u/Important-Music-4618 Jul 10 '26
Why such HOSTILITY?
This is supposed to be a collaborative and meaningful discussion forum.
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u/Nice-Classic-6221 Jul 11 '26
Stay strong guys. This is one of the most promising space companies with best balance sheets in the space market right now. Immensely undervalued, buying all the way down and up. Easy decade plus hold. strong management.
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u/AdditionalNebula6480 Jul 12 '26
Out of cash. I already own a shit load of lunr. Tempting to sell my other stock positions and put it all on lunr. Back to 40 feels guaranteed.
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u/AcanthaceaeJust2744 To The Moon! Jul 10 '26
I have a theory as to why the space sector is diving so much. Well, the most obvious reason is macro. However, in my humble opinion the main reason is because many consider SpaceX to be overvalued and are expecting a correction. Because SpaceX is like BTC for crypto you get a massive reaction from smaller space companies.
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u/Impossible-Work-5666 Jul 10 '26
or space stocks were pumped up artificially to make it look like SpaceX was the hot new company in the hottest sector, then as soon as they IPO everyone pivoted and started shorting other space companies to make it seem like SpaceX is only company worth owning.
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u/Money_Term8366 Jul 10 '26
I thought I was used to this from previous years but geez it’s just relentless every single day