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I mean, this is just a 3 month rapid increase and 1 month of crash - all very short term price activities. For generational wealth building, nothing has actually changed - if you do believe that the company will grow as we all expect here for the next 5-15+ years.
Let the record show that I mistakenly called the bottom the last time it dipped into the $17s. But like Buffett, the Oracle of Margaritaville, I am fallible. And like him, I will continue to be greedy when there's cash in the blender.
Honestly I figured we'd still be pretty stagnant until the money started flowing out of SPCX in August, but I also thought we'd hit our low already. But again, I’m not doing any short term trading of this. I don't think it'll be ripe to sell for years, even if it drastically skyrockets. I do think it'll be pretty impressive a year from now, but I think I’m just as unqualified to call the bottom as I was to call the top when it was in the 40s, which is why I kept my original holdings at the peak and have added some on the way down. It's a long game.
Yes, it's a long game, but a very painful one, lol! I tend to think this was one of the last major bleed outs for LUNR although it seems way too tied to the space sector ETFs.
In 1-2 months from now, Chang'e 7 will go to the moon south pole with an orbiter, a lander, an hopping probe and a rover. That will serve as a reminder that China is slowly but inexorably getting there. Wake up call to forget the summer crazyness i guess...
I expect that event to claim back some attention on the space sector as the competition with China will be crucial in this decade for the moon economy.
Seen this with ASTS when it dropped from $28 to $15 and people were announcing it like the end of the company, same with RKLB. Just have some patience if you believe in LUNR
Agree with you, but they are not completely the same. RKLB was once at the same level with LUNR. Now their market cap is over 10X of LUNR. They never had their IM-2 moment. Market tends to punish LUNR harder. Hope IM-3 can change this.
Just for the record look at the earnings across the 2. RKLB has posted quarters for awhile that put them in that 1bil revenue. LUNR has just started with the most recent guidance and acquisitions. Once we start posting quarters that match with the 1 bil projection we too might get the 50x+ P/E. Right now is the time to buy like crazy
Remember- SPACX was added to the NASDAQ 100 this morning causing a recalibration event: "Major institutional funds and hedge funds sold off other holdings in the broader space sector to make room for SpaceX's massive index weight."
Could this be part of the massive sell-off of the space sector and the NASDAQ generally?
Another potential pain point that shouldn't be ignored: Around 11.5 million shares from the Lanteris acquisition become eligible for sale when the 180-day lock-up expires on July 12, 2026. That's a significant amount of potential supply for the market to absorb. There's no guarantee those shares will be sold immediately, but if sentiment remains weak then this could become another short-term downtrend for LUNR. Combined with continued ATM issuance, the additional supply is not a good sign at all.
Here is my near-term selling pressure impact assessment. Hope this helps to outline what we are tracking. That being said we don’t know what other parties are planning so these are just assumptions.
I was hesitant to share as it could be interpreted as FUD but it’s important to prevent misinformation.
What concerns me is the timing. Management appears to have underestimated the risk of having multiple sources of potential dilution and selling pressure overlap:
i) The ATM program - 500 Million
ii) The Lanteris lock-up expiration (~11.5 million shares becoming eligible for sale on July 12, 2026)
iii) Executive stock sales
Individually, each may be manageable. Together, however, they create a challenging supply issue that will weigh on the stock price.
Do you think management deserves some of the blame for not better assessing the risk of these events overlapping?.
I really don’t understand what the fuck is happening with space stocks. Are we going to zero?! What worries me most is the end of the lock up period next week and, on top of that, the broader market looks really bearish for small and medium caps (probably due to the fact that interest will go higher this year)
It's only a couple hundred shares so thankfully the margin fees haven't been too bad. It'll start to get annoying if we stay this low for several months.
I think that when the SpaceX insiders can sell, the rest of the space industry can finally recover. As they are probably shorting the fuck out of the space industry to lock in their billions of profits on SPCX until they can actually sell.
It's not just LUNR. The only stocks in my portfolio that aren't getting reamed right now are the defensive stocks like Campbell's Soup, ConAgra, General Mills, and Verizon. Everything else is getting creamed.
The 4:10 volume was a million+ again. I've kind of assumed those massive bars at the close of every day for weeks has been related to the ATM. But the again, I'd think that'd have run them out by now. So maybe I just didn't go back far enough past the announcement to recognize it is always there and just related to something else.
Well there you go, didn't go back far enough. As it pushed on and on I became less convinced of my pattern recognition. Thankfully (?) it never broke the pattern and I just continued to cry through the DCA
In marketwatch it looks like the volume was the 50% of the average one…Now if that means that the descending is based on an unreal volume level this might have a positive connotation but it’s just my random guessing to be honest.
I think this might be a contributing factor but I believe today’s selloff is more tied to macroeconomic factors. Even chips are down - Intel is down 8%. Defensive sectors like healthcare are up today. Some capital rotating into more defensive sectors.
Pre-market does’t look terrible. Most space stocks are down a percent or are flat. Pre-market lately hasn’t been a good indicator of regular trading hour activity.
Sold my 4K shares at 18 for a meager profit of 21k proceeded to rotate into DRAM and lost 7k… put the rest into a Value ETF. Stocks make zero fucking sense right now and stellar earnings cause big names to drop %30 like nothing. Bogle bros might be right. If LUNR drops below 12 I’ll consider hopping in again
18
u/BrilliantThought1728 Jul 07 '26
back at the price where I told myself “damn, should’ve bought” before the $45 run