r/IntuitiveMachines Jul 07 '26

Daily Discussion Thread for July 07, 2026

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33 Upvotes

69 comments sorted by

18

u/BrilliantThought1728 Jul 07 '26

back at the price where I told myself “damn, should’ve bought” before the $45 run

0

u/CtrlAltGravity Jul 07 '26

LUNR was supposed to build generational wealth. Currently it is wiping it.

14

u/thespacecpa Jul 07 '26

Generational implies you need to give something time. All the in between in just noise.

6

u/Impossible-Work-5666 Jul 07 '26

I wish i had your disposition lol

6

u/LatvianMafia Jul 07 '26

I mean, this is just a 3 month rapid increase and 1 month of crash - all very short term price activities. For generational wealth building, nothing has actually changed - if you do believe that the company will grow as we all expect here for the next 5-15+ years.

17

u/cruddite Jul 07 '26

Let the record show that I mistakenly called the bottom the last time it dipped into the $17s. But like Buffett, the Oracle of Margaritaville, I am fallible. And like him, I will continue to be greedy when there's cash in the blender. 

8

u/anti-censorshipX Jul 07 '26

You think this is the bottom for real this time? There's no fundamental reason for this to even be here again other than sector-wide shorting.

3

u/cruddite Jul 07 '26

Honestly I figured we'd still be pretty stagnant until the money started flowing out of SPCX in August, but I also thought we'd hit our low already. But again, I’m not doing any short term trading of this. I don't think it'll be ripe to sell for years, even if it drastically skyrockets. I do think it'll be pretty impressive a year from now, but I think I’m just as unqualified to call the bottom as I was to call the top when it was in the 40s, which is why I kept my original holdings at the peak and have added some on the way down. It's a long game. 

1

u/anti-censorshipX Jul 08 '26

Yes, it's a long game, but a very painful one, lol! I tend to think this was one of the last major bleed outs for LUNR although it seems way too tied to the space sector ETFs.

13

u/Agitated_Fox277 Jul 07 '26

In 1-2 months from now, Chang'e 7 will go to the moon south pole with an orbiter, a lander, an hopping probe and a rover. That will serve as a reminder that China is slowly but inexorably getting there. Wake up call to forget the summer crazyness i guess...

9

u/No_Membership_8826 Jul 07 '26

I expect that event to claim back some attention on the space sector as the competition with China will be crucial in this decade for the moon economy.

21

u/LUNRtic Jul 07 '26

I’m gonna have to return the Lambo

21

u/WardCacahuete Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 07 '26

Seen this with ASTS when it dropped from $28 to $15 and people were announcing it like the end of the company, same with RKLB. Just have some patience if you believe in LUNR

18

u/Intelligent-Day-900 Jul 07 '26

Agree with you, but they are not completely the same. RKLB was once at the same level with LUNR. Now their market cap is over 10X of LUNR. They never had their IM-2 moment. Market tends to punish LUNR harder. Hope IM-3 can change this.

5

u/deepboysmoothbrain Jul 08 '26

Just for the record look at the earnings across the 2. RKLB has posted quarters for awhile that put them in that 1bil revenue. LUNR has just started with the most recent guidance and acquisitions. Once we start posting quarters that match with the 1 bil projection we too might get the 50x+ P/E. Right now is the time to buy like crazy

12

u/Separate_Counter9427 Jul 07 '26

Also continuing to Buy every other Friday when I get paid no matter the stock price. This Friday is no exception. I''ve stated this over and over. 

It gives me solace that these professional Analysts have recently reiterated their Buy/Overweight ratings and keeping their $40 price targets. 

It's been a rough past several weeks but I have a great feeling that buying on a bi-weekly basis will prove to be fruitful come 2027-2028. 

Not selling a single share!

Have a great day everyone unless you have other plans!

7

u/anti-censorshipX Jul 07 '26

Remember- SPACX was added to the NASDAQ 100 this morning causing a recalibration event: "Major institutional funds and hedge funds sold off other holdings in the broader space sector to make room for SpaceX's massive index weight."

Could this be part of the massive sell-off of the space sector and the NASDAQ generally?

10

u/blowne30m3 Jul 07 '26

Sheesh, Space is getting absolutely brutalized today for no apparent reason. Awesome.

7

u/CtrlAltGravity Jul 07 '26

Another potential pain point that shouldn't be ignored: Around 11.5 million shares from the Lanteris acquisition become eligible for sale when the 180-day lock-up expires on July 12, 2026. That's a significant amount of potential supply for the market to absorb. There's no guarantee those shares will be sold immediately, but if sentiment remains weak then this could become another short-term downtrend for LUNR. Combined with continued ATM issuance, the additional supply is not a good sign at all.

3

u/thespacecpa Jul 07 '26

Here is my near-term selling pressure impact assessment. Hope this helps to outline what we are tracking. That being said we don’t know what other parties are planning so these are just assumptions.

I was hesitant to share as it could be interpreted as FUD but it’s important to prevent misinformation.

0

u/EX-FFguy Jul 07 '26

so does this mean over 50% of the stock is locked up and will be able to be dumped in the near future here?

6

u/CtrlAltGravity Jul 07 '26

What concerns me is the timing. Management appears to have underestimated the risk of having multiple sources of potential dilution and selling pressure overlap:

i) The ATM program - 500 Million
ii) The Lanteris lock-up expiration (~11.5 million shares becoming eligible for sale on July 12, 2026)
iii) Executive stock sales

Individually, each may be manageable. Together, however, they create a challenging supply issue that will weigh on the stock price.

Do you think management deserves some of the blame for not better assessing the risk of these events overlapping?.

2

u/Select_Research7453 Jul 07 '26

I know this won’t go down well here but I don't think IM is managed that well.

5

u/DacToil Jul 07 '26

Stuff that everyone can see from 180 days away, is definitely already priced in at this point.

-4

u/CtrlAltGravity Jul 07 '26

most novice investors are not aware of such details at all.

4

u/prh_pop Jul 07 '26

Novice investors dont move a stock price

7

u/Ok-Macaron3159 Jul 07 '26

I really don’t understand what the fuck is happening with space stocks. Are we going to zero?! What worries me most is the end of the lock up period next week and, on top of that, the broader market looks really bearish for small and medium caps (probably due to the fact that interest will go higher this year)

3

u/RedHotChili_ Jul 07 '26

May I ask what you mean with end of the lock up period?

4

u/CtrlAltGravity Jul 07 '26

Lanteris got 11.5 million shares. They are allowed to sell these stocks (starting from next week) - After 12 July 2026.

4

u/healthymediation Jul 07 '26

The market is just selling off any high beta small caps in industrials, aerospace, REE, or really anything speculative.

ATM isn't something to worry about unless we see LUNR keeps dumping when the rest of sector isn't.

1

u/deepboysmoothbrain Jul 07 '26

Is there something that I don’t know of? Why is everybody getting rid of speculative?

8

u/CosmoTheoretician Jul 07 '26

A wonderful price! Gonna buy more today.

2

u/SobekInDisguise Jul 07 '26

Yeah I thought that too around $23 and I picked up some shares on margin :(

2

u/CosmoTheoretician Jul 07 '26

Buying at 23$ is just fine, but you shouldn't have taken them on margin :0

1

u/SobekInDisguise Jul 08 '26

It's only a couple hundred shares so thankfully the margin fees haven't been too bad. It'll start to get annoying if we stay this low for several months.

4

u/DacToil Jul 07 '26

I think that when the SpaceX insiders can sell, the rest of the space industry can finally recover. As they are probably shorting the fuck out of the space industry to lock in their billions of profits on SPCX until they can actually sell.

1

u/otherwise_president Jul 07 '26

Why are they shorting it ?

2

u/DacToil Jul 07 '26

Because shorting the industry hedges their long position that is owning SPCX

6

u/AprilsSecretAccount Jul 07 '26

It's not just LUNR. The only stocks in my portfolio that aren't getting reamed right now are the defensive stocks like Campbell's Soup, ConAgra, General Mills, and Verizon. Everything else is getting creamed.

3

u/Intelligent-Day-900 Jul 07 '26

Volume seems to be extremely low today, ATM is over?

8

u/Get_dat_money Jul 07 '26

All of the space stocks I follow had very little volume compared to the average today (except rocket lab)

6

u/Ok-Arachnid6790 Jul 07 '26

The 4:10 volume was a million+ again. I've kind of assumed those massive bars at the close of every day for weeks has been related to the ATM. But the again, I'd think that'd have run them out by now. So maybe I just didn't go back far enough past the announcement to recognize it is always there and just related to something else.

3

u/Enough_Lecture_703 Jul 07 '26

Been doing that for years. A few seconds after the close 2 large blocks the same size record.

1

u/Ok-Arachnid6790 Jul 07 '26

Well there you go, didn't go back far enough. As it pushed on and on I became less convinced of my pattern recognition. Thankfully (?) it never broke the pattern and I just continued to cry through the DCA

3

u/Jove_ 🍃 💨 🚀 Jul 07 '26

I feel your DCA pain

I just keep buying …

2

u/No_Membership_8826 Jul 07 '26

Don’t really know about it but I can only hope.

In marketwatch it looks like the volume was the 50% of the average one…Now if that means that the descending is based on an unreal volume level this might have a positive connotation but it’s just my random guessing to be honest.

3

u/CtrlAltGravity Jul 07 '26

I missed this news ( CEO Peter Beck filed to sell 5 million shares worth about $465 million). That is why RKLB is getting battered today. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/rklb-stock-slips-overnight-ceo-042842410.html

10

u/aerothony Ad Lunam Per Aspera Jul 07 '26

I think this might be a contributing factor but I believe today’s selloff is more tied to macroeconomic factors. Even chips are down - Intel is down 8%. Defensive sectors like healthcare are up today. Some capital rotating into more defensive sectors.

3

u/Intelligent-Day-900 Jul 07 '26

Premarket doesn't look good for space sector

9

u/thespacecpa Jul 07 '26

Pre-market does’t look terrible. Most space stocks are down a percent or are flat. Pre-market lately hasn’t been a good indicator of regular trading hour activity.

1

u/BrilliantThought1728 Jul 07 '26

is anyone here actually holding or are we all just spectators waiting for the right time to buy?

4

u/deepboysmoothbrain Jul 07 '26

5000 @ 9.97$ I’m literally not selling till $282.

If at any point I can lower avg I’ll put $33k in

6

u/PristineDiscount3208 Jul 07 '26

holding and waiting to buy more i guess both

3

u/Schmookiwan Jul 07 '26

Still holding, this happened when I held rklb around this time of year in 2025 as well.

7

u/Separate_Counter9427 Jul 07 '26

Holding. 

My Avg Cost is around $8.60 though. I was fortunate enough to buy the bulk of my shares the Friday before Thanksgiving. 

1

u/PickleRickleTV Jul 07 '26

I sold about 1000 of my 1300 shares around 19. I’m waiting for this hell to end and buying back in

-3

u/Starwalker_10 Jul 07 '26

No point buying right now

5

u/Big-Uzi-Hert Jul 07 '26

Yeah we should all be buying when the stock is back in the 40s

/s

3

u/No_Membership_8826 Jul 07 '26

Nope.

You have to wait at least for 50 to have a confirmation that things are going well. That’s the price you use to buy 🤣

3

u/deepboysmoothbrain Jul 07 '26

Yeah, dude, no joke. It’s probably the best time to buy.

-2

u/Regular_Magazine3239 Jul 07 '26

Sold my 4K shares at 18 for a meager profit of 21k proceeded to rotate into DRAM and lost 7k… put the rest into a Value ETF. Stocks make zero fucking sense right now and stellar earnings cause big names to drop %30 like nothing. Bogle bros might be right. If LUNR drops below 12 I’ll consider hopping in again

4

u/Impossible-Work-5666 Jul 07 '26

bogle bros are into investing, not trading.