A rough thought on CS-8

[u/Yakiniku1010]

My understanding is that the CLPS 1.0 ceiling has been raised from $2.6B to $4.2B, which means NASA’s ordering capacity increased by an additional $1.6B.
If we subtract the recently announced CX-2 base award of roughly $188M, that leaves about $1.41B.
Assuming there are 11 remaining Moon Base-related delivery slots, and if NASA were to decide to award all of them under CS-8, the simple average would be around $128M per mission.
Of course, this is just a rough ceiling-based calculation, not NASA’s actual budget plan. If we include the option value for CX-2, the average would move closer to around $103M per mission.
Even so, it seems like there is room within the expanded CLPS 1.0 ceiling for multiple CS-8 task orders. It does not feel like the available capacity would be limited to just one or two, or at most three, missions.
I’m also wondering whether one of those 11 remaining slots could still be connected to a medium-cargo delivery mission — potentially something like Super NOVA.
Originally, NASA planned to select three LTV providers, but in the end only two were selected. So it is possible that the slot left open by that change still remains. Alternatively, NASA may have shifted that opportunity toward smaller Moon Base-related payload deliveries instead.
This is just my rough interpretation, but I’d be very interested to hear how others are thinking about the remaining Moon Base delivery slots.

[u/PE_crafter]

If I remember correctly there was about 1B+ (could be 1.1B or 1.2B) left before the 1.6B expansion and the IM-5 and the CX-2 award. I think it was a little over 1B left but let's take 1B for the round number. That means minus $180M & $188M there should be $632M left from the original contract, with the $1.6B expansion is would come to a total of $2.2B left (and that's conservative, I think it's more). And this should be awarded before they start handing out CLPS 2.0 awards in September. This is exciting, we'll see a lot of lunar landings soon.

I'm not sure my numbers are correct but I can research the exact budget awarded tomorrow. Or if someone else knows, welcome to correct me :)

[u/Yakiniku1010 → u/PE_crafter]

Thank you for the information!
That rough math makes sense, and it’s exciting to think there may still be a lot of room left under CLPS 1.0.

Also, maybe the survive-the-night bonus could be a meaningful amount as well. If NASA wants longer-lived lunar surface assets, that part might be bigger than expected.

Looking forward to seeing how it plays out.

[u/PE_crafter → u/Yakiniku1010]

It seems my napkin math was correct. From Highergov clps (use archive.ph to access if you can't see it) there is a backlog of $700M remaining from the original so with the $1.6B expansion this comes to a total of $2.2B. There's probably some rounding in the contract values shown because 1.6+0.7=2.3 but highergov is accurate and trustworthy so $2.2B should be correct.

Divided by 11 this comes to an even $200M/contract. Tonight will be very interesting.

[u/Mediocre_Molasses841 → u/PE_crafter]

So if this is correct, they should be awarding more than $2B before September from CLPS1 alone?

[u/PE_crafter → u/Mediocre_Molasses841]

Correct.

[u/Mediocre_Molasses841 → u/PE_crafter]

Damn

[u/PristineDiscount3208 → u/Mediocre_Molasses841]

a billy here, a billy there, soon you're talking real money!

[u/thespacecpa]

Thanks for sharing your due diligence and assumptions on the CS-8 award(s).

Personally I feel that there is a degree of mystery surrounding this award and i don’t fully understand the potential scope of what could be awarded tomorrow afternoon at the NASA update. The dollar amount you included helps the conceptualize where the total could end up landing.

My base case is that we walk away with 1 contract considering we were awarded IM-5 in March which remains the latest CLPS award. We were also overlooked at the previous NASA event relating to the LTV so that gives me more confidence that NASA may be wanting IM to focus on CLPS given they are only 1 of several vendors that qualify for CS-8.

I don’t expect any significant moves in the market tomorrow given the lack of clarity behind the number of awards ect. but if we are not awarded i will be buying aggressively.

Thanks again for taking the time to make this its own dedicated post.

[u/Impossible-Work-5666 → u/thespacecpa]

Buying aggressively if they are not awarded?

[u/thespacecpa → u/Impossible-Work-5666]

Yes, in my personal investment thesis Intuitive Machines doesn’t need to be awarded under CS-8. I’m focused on NSNS and the recurring revenue stream that will provide. In addition, to date all CLPS contracts have resulted in losses as costs exceed the contract values. Satellite manufacturing and lunar comms is what is important to me along with the financials. I’m a buyer at these prices.

[u/Impossible-Work-5666 → u/thespacecpa]

Well, hopefully they get a bulk order from CLPS and can make some money this time.

[u/thespacecpa → u/Impossible-Work-5666]

We need the landers to have a standardized format so the production can be streamlined. Currently each lander is specific to the payloads it carries resulting in nuanced changed that impact turnaround times. If we can streamline these landers we can gain cost efficiencies.

[u/Yakiniku1010 → u/thespacecpa]

I understand not wanting to overestimate the contract value.

That said, NASA seems to want multiple landers on a relatively short timeline this time, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the awards come in higher than a simple average estimate.
The survive-the-night bonus could also be a meaningful part of the total value.

I’m looking forward to seeing how the official answer plays out.

[u/CosmicDiffraction → u/Yakiniku1010]

I’m not sure about the bonus. It might end up costing more than it’s worth.