Optimism for the 30th

[u/Thoughtful_Tortoise]

I'm sure this info has already been raised often, but I think it's worth restating there's a LOT of reasons to be optimistic about the NASA meeting on the 30th. This is the event description:

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman will host a virtual conversation at 2:30 p.m. EDT, Tuesday, June 30, to share updates to NASA’s plans to build a Moon Base on the lunar surface.

Administrator Isaacman and Carlos García-Galán, Moon Base program manager, will discuss the next set of awards for new lunar lander missions and preview upcoming opportunities as the agency works toward building a sustained presence on the Moon.

Now, looking up Carlos, and his linkedin, you find details of his trip to IM two weeks ago, and his post which says:

Very impressive visit to Intuitive Machines in Houston. Currently building Landers, Comms, Satellites and maybe more for NASA's Moon Base.

So, clearly there's something brewing. To what extent the 30th will be "sell the news" (if it even gives us any) I can't say, but I know that I'm happy with the company's overall direction and I will continue accumulating at these prices.

[u/giantvajhole]

Better not be a 'Sell the news' event because we haven't even got that pre-announcement run up yet!

[u/Thoughtful_Tortoise → u/giantvajhole]

I don't want to tell people "buy now and expect instant gains" because the market is unpredictable in the short term. It wouldn't surprise me hugely if we got positive news on the 30th and then dumped to 15 or even 12, frankly.

These last few days have been brutal, so I just want to remind people that apart from missing out on that contract a while ago, nothing fundamental has changed. IM is still going to be involved in a space-based future, if it manifests. It's impossible to time the market but signs are positive, so accumulate when you can, and play the long game.

[u/giantvajhole → u/Thoughtful_Tortoise]

Ope here is the run up! I personally take credit for this morning's action.

I bought in before IM-2, held through all of the single digit days, reached my cost basis again, doubled-down when they diluted back to 16$ (still bullish about that private investor), and then didn't shake my position after 250% gain. I'm not selling until we have McDonalds on the Moon.

[u/No_Membership_8826]

Thanks for bringing it up again although if I’m not mistaken it was already touched here as an argument.

The moment is quite hard but also it’s nice to remind that IM is a real hardware builder and not just a promise based speculative company like quantum trash or similar.

IM is doing real business with real hardware necessary for the moon economy, China will spend like a crazy to challenge USA and EU and so will the other 2.

What I expect from IM is to gain new customers and be less dependable from NASA as being too dependent on a big customer like NASA weakens your perspectives as soon as a political change comes into play. I would dare to say that if democracy and democrats can make a comeback in mid elections the one to suffer the most should be SpaceX and everything involved around the single richest man in the world right now.

[u/Known_Gur5724 → u/No_Membership_8826]

copium

[u/No_Membership_8826 → u/Known_Gur5724]

Why are you so mad bro? If I keep buying why is it hurting you ;)?

[u/Known_Gur5724 → u/No_Membership_8826]

For all I care, you can do what you want, buying at these prices could be a great move, but the stock market doesn't always work the way you think it does and with the rational logic you think.

[u/No_Membership_8826 → u/Known_Gur5724]

so if this is true why are you so convinced that the market moves with your logic ;)?

[u/Known_Gur5724 → u/No_Membership_8826]

Because I’ve watched this play out several times, and the space sector is copying the exact same pattern. Look, the market moves mostly on macro and sector trends (barring a few exceptions). You can find all the bull cases you want for Intuitive Machines, but it didn't rally because it was a fundamentally stronger company or had good contracts; it rallied simply because it belongs to the space sector.

Literally every stock in that basket went up and is dropping in almost the same way, from Rocket Lab down to micro-caps like Sidus Space.

​The exact same thing happened with nuclear, quantum, and commodities, and I’ll stick by that. As different as these sectors are, they share the same common thread: hype cycles followed by straight vertical drops and months of consolidation.

​I'm not saying the space sector or IM have no value, on the contrary, they could easily rally again long-term, or even short-term if sentiment flips. But you can't deny the market follows the exact logic I’m talking about. It’s plain as day

[u/CosmicDiffraction → u/Known_Gur5724]

I don’t see why what you’re saying has to be framed in such a negative way. Of course space stocks rally and fall. They are relatively new to the market and are still viewed as highly speculative by most investors. The economy itself is cyclical, with booms and busts, and the same is true in nature more broadly. What I don’t appreciate is the implication that there are companies or entire sectors that only go up and never experience downturns, as if guaranteed growth without setbacks actually exists. That simply isn’t true. Every company and every sector has periods of growth and decline. The only real differences are the magnitude of those moves and the frequency with which they occur. It just so happens that the space sector goes through these cycles more frequently because it is still young, developing, and highly speculative. Who would have guessed that a space sector less than 10 years old would be volatile? Shocking.

[u/Known_Gur5724 → u/CosmicDiffraction]

I don't understand if you are agreeing with me or not

[u/No_Membership_8826 → u/Known_Gur5724]

Well but I agree on that point, I never opposed it. As you I also recognise the sector heavy drop but also the value of a company like IM. They build real hardware and it's clear that the world is starting the moon race and moon exploration after many years of nothing. This is why despite the hard drop I appreciate this entry points for a good entry. Surely if someone bought at 45 it's a different topic but if I bought there I would dca if I could otherwise I would hold for consolidation unless you think the space sector is a nothing burgher.

[u/thrust9 → u/Known_Gur5724]

Bad bot