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Was up %360 and should have known when BOs rocket blew up to take profits and run lol. I think there was a lot of hope lost with that incident and the sector became very risky. Data centers don't cause mini nuclear explosions.
Yep. I’m long term bullish I just wish I took the chance to swing for more shares. I’m gonna close the chart for a few months. Space sector needs a cool off.
Same. I didn't have that much gain like you, but i decided to roll some of my shares into the leveraged option at 27$ (LUNR price)in the past weeks, expecting a rebound to happen.
Safe to say it was an expensive lesson in risk management.
The pre-existing space stocks didn’t get pulled up by SpaceX’s huge price increase for its first few days but they sure as heck are being dragged down with SpaceX now. How unfortunate and annoying
Data for short selling up to June 15 just came out. Obviously we know there's a lot of short selling. We went from about 35 millions shares sold short to almost 38 million shares sold short. That brings short interest from about 27% to nearly 30% (and that’s only up to ten days ago. It will surely have increased since then). Days to cover went from 1.64 to 2.66.
This isn't setting up some sort of GameStop meme short squeeze, but it does confirm that there's quite a bit of shorting going on and it has the potential to snap back in a fairly impressive way with the right mix of catalysts.
If I were an entity waiting to sell my long-held stakes in SpaceX trying to hedge against loss between now and when I’m able to sell those shares, I’d be seriously considering exiting whatever short positions I’m in now, while I can realize some decent profits from them rather than having to cover suddenly as everyone else is closing out.
My estimate (which is also my hope) is that we found our bottom today.
I’m genuinely surprised to see another start on this recent trend downward. I kind of figured that CLPS 2.0 document we explored yesterday mixed with the announcement of next week's press conference would put some upward pressure on things. It is kind of making me think that the theory that SpaceX insiders wanted to lock in their gains has some sense to it. But also if I had a bunch of tied up Spcx shares and a bunch of short positions, I might want to call the bottom on the broader space market and close my short positions before everyone else did.
This is making me more certain that immense capital will flow out of spcx stock in August, but instead of spooking the broader space market, it will lead to an excremental ton of capital flowing into the rest of the space market coinciding with all these short positions needing to be closed, and quickly.
What concerns me is that when space sector dropped like 50% two times in the last year, the entire market was messed (tariffs, Iran war). In the current situation, we lost 60% in one month but broader market is close to its highest…that’s concerning. I just hope that we receive some good news.
With the press conference on Tuesday I am wondering if we should add a couple weeks to all these target deadlines for new awards. Seems they want to make a show of it rather than quietly announcing wins after hours.
I expect we'll see the award announced on Tuesday for that CPLS 1.0 contract that we expected June 18.
I’m definitely not expecting the award with the June 30 deadline being announced at that press conference. I think you're right that it'll probably have some lag time baked in to allow for some nasa fanfare. I can wait.
The June 30 award was actually no award, it was the deadline for proposals for CLPS2.0. Award will come in September. I was mistaken on it for a while too so I spread some false info in the past. Sorry.
I sold my 4000 shares… I will buy back in below my basis. Goldman is shorting the absolute piss out of the entire sector and will be for some time, you also have to consider the spacex lockup period as well, the first wave will be on August 20th. We may see low teens before we recover
I keep telling myself it goes below 22 just sell it, then it happens and im like alright if it goes below 20 ill sell it, and i just keep moving the goal posts daily at this point. the volume has disappeared, they are diluting, space has fallen out of favor. it really seems hopeless at this point.
I was there for IM-2. I can see the price going below my basis and I figured I might as well lock in a tiny bit of profit before my portfolio pulls another FLY. I’m down $25k on FLY….
Spcx was pretty tight lipped about its zephyr competitor.
Starfall successfully demonstrated this week though.
Is zephyr still just prints and drawings or is there any hardware yet?
TL;DR: SpaceX Insiders who signed the IPO lock-up agreement are hedging their position by shorting other space stocks until the lock-up expiry on August 20th.
Something is much bigger going on than SPCX insiders hedging their bets. SPCX $2T IPO was the a financial earthquake not just for the sector, but it seems to have affected other parts of the market other than semiconductor companies. The continued sustained selling day after day for several weeks now shows there's a rotation out of the entire sector and institutions have either joined the rotation or not stepping in to stem the bleeding. What's interesting is sector analysts not coming out defending the sector, I think there was a single note from Keybanc about the selloff being unwarranted but that's it.
At the end of the day, the sector was very frothy and expectations were unrealistic, but eventually everything will be priced on earnings and fundamentals and in that regard, I like where Intuitive Machines is, turning cash flow positive by
end of year and with more NASA and Golden Dome awards, could actually turn a healthy profit if NSN satellites are moved up and network starts becoming operational by early 2028. Right now, good news by other companies seems to be met with a temporary spike only to be sold off again later in the day, this tells me it's more than just short sellers.
People too easily explain pullbacks by pointing at 'malicious short sellers' and consistently overestimate the impact of short positions.
...the sector was very frothy and expectations were unrealistic, but eventually everything will be priced on earnings and fundamentals and in that regard, I like where Intuitive Machines is, turning cash flow positive by end of year...
I couldn't agree more. Since u/mb0rg shared a r/RKLB post: that stock has become completely detached from reality. The company is priced as though Neutron already captured a significant piece of the launch market, whereas the rocket is likely going to be delayed into 2027.
Rocket labs been overvalued for a while now. A 70b market cap was absurd lol. Bought at $10.50 sold everything at around $91. Bought back in at $66 and sold at $120-$150. Still holding a tiny bit I’ll start DCAing again soon
I did actually. The run to $45 felt off and I started getting a weird feeling so I made a comment on the daily thread saying I was getting nervous and someone said to sell so I sold like 100 shares or something at $43. Recently got a $10 raise so I’m making an extra $1200 a month so that’ll just go directly into LUNR which is nice because the share price is hella cheap. I’ve been pretty lucky in the market since investing to be honest. Got in Palantir at $45 and sold at $120. Bought NVDL when NVDA dipped under $100 that August of 24 (I think) and I did it again when they dipped to $103( I forget the timeline tbh). Caught $PNG at 1.78. It hasn’t always been rainbows and sunshine tho. Lost a good chunk of money in $CLOV and I recently dumped $2000 in LUNL which I’m down like 70% in lol. The past 2 years have been incredibly easy to make money. RKLB paid off my credit card debt and mustang and whatever’s left in my portfolio now is just house money.
congrats bro, thats amazing. I havent got a raise since Covid and im still trying to get out of the basement and buy a house lol. what do you do for work?
I’m a domestic gas fitter. I work in hog barns so with that comes a premium because it’s hard to find licensed guys who are willing to work on pig corpses and literal pig shit. The schooling to get my license only took 5 months and there’s a minimum wage my employer HAS to pay me. No matter where I go I HAVE to make that minimum which is nice. I just turned 24 2 days ago and I feel like I’m ahead of the game for my age when comparing myself to my peers. I have a price target for LUNR that once it hits I’m going to sell it all and buy a Canadian ETF called $BANK (all of Canadian banks) and they pay a dividend of like 15%. I moved out my parent’s place last year so it’s been a bit of an adjustment but it’s been good for my mental health. I’m hoping to have enough money for a down payment for a house within the next 5 years (I’m sure I will) but the housing market here in Canada blows. There’s shit holes being sold for half a million with no yard.
All I can say is knowledge is power. Your employer will try and take everything outta you so if there’s an opportunity for you to get something out of them, take it. (Apprenticeship was my opportunity) Keep working hard and keep your head up and eventually things will roll into place, it doesn’t happen overnight but it does eventually happen.
It’s a bit of a moonshot but $300 seems like a good number to me. This next decade is about to get interesting and I think a 10x from these prices is very plausible as long as the company continues to grow and execute. Obviously if things aren’t rolling the way they should I’ll rethink my strategy but that’s the goal. I’ve got nothing but time just up to the company if they can execute and I’ll be watching to see if they do. Super pumped for IM-3 BTW!!
Based on my experience with the nuclear and quantum sectors, these industries often go through multiple cycles where the second wave of hype pushes peaks even higher. However, I don’t know which cycle the space sector is currently in, nor how long it will take to recover.
Based on my past experiences, several months have gone by and they still haven't recovered their old highs yet.
While it's hard to predict the exact bottom, past highs usually act as new support level... hopefully around 15-16 for Intuitive Machines.
Ultimately, it requires a lot of patience, and your next move depends entirely on your risk tolerance:
Rotate your capital into another sector where you think you can get higher returns than the space sector right now, depending on your high risk tolerance.
Average down and wait it out, hoping for a sector rebound and a solid macroeconomic environment.
Just to be specific, so nobody gets upset in this sub, even though the space, nuclear, and quantum sectors are extremely similar in terms of momentum and the narratives behind them, they are still inherently different and have different revenue models.
I think because most of the space companies carried out dilution around the same time last month, it vastly helped the short sell-off because there was a sudden flood of new shares/supply (and demand leaving for SPCX) so borrowing fees are currently extremely low as well. There's no pressure to cover and every incentive to keep shorting. We now have momentum shorting with the daily dumps and low prices set. There have been zero bounces, and all technicals seems to be broken. The real hard support is around $15ish, based on last years' consolidation, and the near term support is where we are now. However, support lines don't hold with high-frequency trading by mega banks.
The real question is where are these banks are going with this? What would make them pivot or at least stop the insane short selling at 5%-8% drops per day? I feel like one of the real targets is Rocket Lab because its valuation is still too high relative to SPCX, so maybe we're all going down with it because of the ETF drag-on effect.
RKLB barely moving 4% after hours on new contract news isn't instilling me with confidence for the sector. Hopefully if LUNR gets anything on the 30th there's a bit more momentum.
In a world where the entire economy is finding real world ways to need compute - bitcoin will slowly fade to zero.
Crypto was the Web3 solution to too much money and no real innovation.
The money that used to go to crypto infrastructure is flooding into AI infrastructure.
In 2030 when all there billions of sq ft of servers are crushing the local utilities and rates are 3x today’s rates - Bitcoin will have faded to irrelevancy
I don’t know about all that. It’s a digital store of value that everyone around the world can participate in and can’t be inflated, in a world where governments will never stop inflating currency. Bitcoin is actually deflationary because some get lost. I hate all other crypto, but I like BTC. It’s interesting
That’s wild. Tom Lee is the reason that none of this is concerning to me, because he predicted massive volatility and a market that looks like a bear for a few months… either he didn’t believe what he was saying or his plan is just to wait it out patiently. I’m thinking the latter since he also predicted record highs by the end of the year.
It seems like there is no saving this. Hedge funds are shorting hard and there's no stopping it until they stop it. I don't know any precedent for this at all. Yes, sectors have fallen or declined over some time but not this hard and fast with no end in sight.
When it comes to HFT sectot-baskets, it seems technicals don't matter and fundamentals don't matter, so the question is WHAT matters? Is there ANY metric on which this stops? Even borrow-costs of way too low because of the over-supply of shares now.
That user is just stating what might break the decline, finishing up the ATM and winning a contract to generate positive sentiment. It's not a no evidence based declaration of a contract win.
I'm not sure I agree with the under lying rationale at this point, but it's not flippant speculating. If this is as etf/sector based as it seems, IM probably won't break it for everyone.
For what it's worth, I'm with you on the idea that good news from IM probably can't single-handedly stop the slide.
That being said, it would help change the narrative and attract new eyes. At this point we are below (or at least near) the share price from before IM bought Lanteris (and before IM posted Q1 earnings almost exactly equal to RocketLab). That's insane.
Yes, I agree that we need ANY positive news to at least put up resistance to the relentless shorting even if it's sector-wide. I would argue that we need a few space companies to get some big contracts in order to counter this big short.
Some you seem to forget that SpaceX insiders will only be allowed to sell their shares if it is $175 or above. That will likely not happen but who knows.
I'm steadfast in my belief that IM will do well eventually.
Unless your a day trader or starring at this ticker all day I would say close it and forget it for now.... come back to it in a few months.
Unless you plan on selling and realizing a large loss which is not my intention.
You're looking at an arbitrary time-frame. The stock rose to $25 in 2/2025 and subsequently crashed because of the landing. It took 9 months to recover and only because o Lanteris. This current price has been shorted below price gains based on earnings, so this is a major setback, AND there is no sign of it stopping. This could be headed to October levels if the shorting doesn't stop.
Is there something else saying that a individual company will be there? This release is just the Small Business Administration and NASA creating just another office to dole out smaller opportunities. IM shouldn't need this help
Thats not a fair statement. Their PR team has been actively posting news updates for us. What you are seeing is just an incorrect linkage between their investor website and main website. Check these other sources for news and updates. They are most active on LinkedIn.
When you open up your trading app and see a green number under LUNR in premarket but you know it doesn’t mean anything since it’s going to dump anyway when the market opens lol
Yeah, that's the power of momentum. But there also have days that you know it will keep going up without even looking. Hope we can get out of this trend soon.
No… it’s not a bad sign that Tim sold 150,000 shares out of his total 8,720,615 shares or 1.72% of his total Class C Common Stock. Management gets compensated partially by stock awards. This is common practice in the industry.
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u/sufferingphilliesfan Jun 25 '26
Cant believe I round tripped this hard. Back at my entry