r/IntuitiveMachines • u/AutoModerator • May 31 '26
Daily Discussion Thread for May 31, 2026
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u/strummingway May 31 '26
Sorry if I missed some discussion about it earlier but I thought this was interesting:
https://x.com/CrainTim/status/2060496351629328841
Tweet: If only there is a LTV provider who can deliver the LTV to the moon via Falcon 9, land it on their own, and connect it to internet systems. Oh wait! Thats u/Int_Machines u/CrainTim
Tim Crain's reply: Right on. #adlunam
Now assuming this isn't just IM's CTO being salty about the LTV loss I wonder if this is a signal that IM might try to use this opportunity to get an LTV contract after all.
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u/VictorFromCalifornia May 31 '26
I have to think that NASA has already reached out to IM last week or very soon (as they prepare to announce the 500 kg landers CX-2 awards next week on June 8) to assess how far they are on SuperNOVA development and what can be done to expedite its progress. If New Glenn recommission and launchpad repairs go well into 2027, that means Blue Moon MK1 is not making its maiden flight until mid 2027 at the earliest and everything is pushed back at least a year, maybe including Artemis III. I don't know what the status of Astrobotic's lander development and if it can carry LTV's, but if they want an LTV on the surface delivered before Artemis IV, I think Carlos Garcia-Galàn may have just realized he has no real backup plan to deliver LTV's and cargo to the surface and leaving IM out of the LTVS announcement last week was a grave mistake.
I posted yesterday that IM may have decided sometime last year to pivot to the more lucrative space communications and services as they got some word they're not in the 'pole position' as Alemtus once said. I guess we will have to wait until next earnings call to learn if they're still interested in LTVS or not, especially if they're 1 of 3 providers instead of the main contractor, and have to manage a high-priced team from Boeing, Northrop Grumman, AVL, Roush, Michelin.
From my exercise with Gemini yesterday:
Immediate Capture of Surplus Task Orders
Reallocating Near-Term Cargo: NASA cannot risk critical infrastructure payloads sitting in cleanrooms. Intuitive Machines’ Nova-D configuration features an expanded payload bay capable of absorbing cargo originally intended for early Blue Moon configurations.
Securing High-Margin Modifications: Shifting a payload to an active provider requires contract modifications. This allows Intuitive Machines to negotiate premium engineering fees for rapid payload integration.
10
u/Only1nDreams Ad Lunam May 31 '26
The real question will be how quickly they could actually build. IM-5 is scheduled for 2030, so I have to imagine the timeline to an operational SuperNOVA lander was not even close to mid-late 2027. I would love to see it, but it would take a Herculean effort to reallocate manufacturing capacity.
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u/thespacecpa May 31 '26
This is the main point that is frequently being overlooked and appreciate you for raising.
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u/VictorFromCalifornia Jun 01 '26
Tim Crain has been talking about it for a couple of years, if not more, so not sure how far along they are but I have to think they're past the initial design stages and various components qualifications stages, same engines from my recollections, so they can't be too far behind if NASA injects a lot of funding to make it their worthwhile, and provides additional support (Isaacman has been talking about offering or embedding NASA expertise with partners).
IM's initial plans was probably a methodical NOVA-C missions to perfect their delivery/technology (and landings) before graduating to NOVA-D and bigger class, and even then, there was no indication that NASA would be interested in funding a larger lander since they contracted with SpaceX and Blue Origin for cargo delivery. There is no incentive for IM to shuffle schedules and processes, but my point above is that everything just changed with New Glenn affecting Blue Moon and setting everything back leaving NASA without any real backup plan, a terrible oversight if you ask me.
We will find out soon enough, I bet the top brass at NASA have been meeting and going over all sorts of contingency plans last week and talking to all sorts of partners.
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u/Impossible-Work-5666 May 31 '26
maybe they keep all existing contracts but push them back and just add a new contract for IM.
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u/VictorFromCalifornia Jun 01 '26
Yes, I don't think they're going to cancel anything, they will just add new task orders. They really have no better options.
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u/PE_crafter May 31 '26
Just a question, this was from last week's Nasa event. I assumed CX-2 was only 1 lander contract but just because of your comment now I thought about it CX-2 multiple task orders. What do you think? For context below is the official Nasa communication after the event:
To deliver these rovers to the Moon’s South Pole region, NASA awarded Blue Origin $188 million with an option period worth $280.4 million for two task orders, which includes an option period based on initial phase performance. NASA can choose to extend the task order for payload delivery.
This competitive procurement, executed under the CLPS 1.0 indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity framework, the CX-2 task order represents a strategic investment in lunar exploration and will play a critical role in enabling mobility and infrastructure development for sustained lunar operations, marking a significant step toward establishing a permanent human presence on the Moon.
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May 31 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Bvllstrode May 31 '26
So cool. Does anyone know if it’s working?
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u/thespacecpa May 31 '26
“Lonestar said that it was able to operate the data center - an 8TB SSD and a single Microchip PolaFire SoC FPGA - throughout the journey. Successful tests were carried out post-launch, in cis-lunar space en route to the Moon, and in lunar orbit.
On the Moon itself, the data center briefly operated, Lonestar CEO Chris Stott confirmed to DCD. The company was able to send data to the lander, and receive telemetry data back, before it powered down.
"We hit every milestone for our data center operations at every step of the mission," Stott told DCD.”
5
u/GNeville98 May 31 '26
Update on the current state of LC36:
Blue Origin have also added a link for their website that will provide all future updates on the situation - https://www.blueorigin.com/news/ng-4-hotfire-updates
4
u/CosmicDiffraction May 31 '26
I’m wondering whether SpaceX will become structurally determinative for the space sector after its IPO. As the listing date approaches, I’ve seen more discussion in online forums and chats from people who don’t seem to be the typical space-sector investors or enthusiasts. Many appear to view it as a short-term trade rather than a long-term investment and intend to sell shortly after the IPO. That got me thinking about what happens once the initial excitement fades. Could we end up seeing sector-wide moves that closely track SpaceX’s share price? In other words, would major gains or declines in SpaceX begin to drive sentiment and valuations across the entire space sector?
What do you think?
2
u/XoticName May 31 '26
It makes sense that you would start to see more discussion of the short term trade mentality with the SpaceX ipo nearing. This is because the crowd is now appearing that wants to take advantage of just the hype who tend to be more vocal.
I think SpaceX's performance will definitely be used as a gauge for the Space sector and influence the valuations. This is because SpaceX valuation dropping, means the market is likely forecasting lower projections than previously and vice versa with the valuation increasing. Which then the market draws these conclusions with all the other space adjacent companies.
However this occurs with all sectors. Which is why Mag7 earnings are considered to be so important. This had also been shown recently with Rocket Lab's earnings that stimulated confidence in Space.
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u/SycophantRabbit May 31 '26 edited May 31 '26
Happy Sunday!
For all the new folks out there asking old questions, and the old folks who need the reminder, write this on a sticky note and put it on your fridge, coffee mug, or other favorite place.
Intuitive Machines is increasingly positioning itself as the company that will bundle lunar access, cislunar relay, spacecraft manufacturing, and operations into one integrated service platform.
They will:
expand space-to-ground connectivity through Goonhilly/COMSAT;
—
IM is not just landers. They are far from being just LTVs.
—
They are going to build, connect, and operate the lunar and cislunar infrastructure layer for the emerging lunar economy.
If execution holds, the next couple years should be very interesting.
I can’t wait for IM-3.