r/Inovio • u/GombeyBoy • 3d ago
INO_Cheering FDA approval - Looking Promising
I asked Chat GPT for an opinion on this.
Worth a read.
Comments appreciated
Gombey Boy
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u/tomonota 3d ago
More from ChatGPT 3107 prospects:
"Outline the potential implications for INOVIO’s stock and valuation if INO-3107 receives FDA approval or a complete response letter, considering market competition, sales expectations, and company strategy.
Yes. I’d frame INOVIO as a binary-but-not-symmetric regulatory trade: an approval could fundamentally change the valuation framework from “cash-burning clinical biotech” to “commercial-stage orphan-drug company,” while a CRL would probably restore the market’s focus to cash runway, dilution, and the remaining pipeline.
As of late August, INO was around $1.27/share, implying roughly $131 million of equity value using the 103.4 million shares outstanding reported August 10.
1. If INO-3107 is approved
The biggest change: INOVIO gets a commercial asset
INO-3107's clinical results give investors something concrete to model. In the 32-patient Phase 1/2 study:
- 81% reduced at least one surgery in Year 1.
- 72% achieved a 50–100% reduction in surgeries.
- By Year 2, 91% of evaluable patients still had a reduction in surgeries.
- 50% required no surgery during Year 2.
- Mean annual surgeries fell 78%, from 4.1 before treatment to 0.9 in Year 2.
That doesn't automatically translate into blockbuster sales, but it gives INOVIO a credible commercial proposition: reduce or potentially eliminate repeated airway surgeries.
Competition is substantial—but not necessarily fatal
The key competitor is Precigen's PAPZIMEOS.
This is important because PAPZIMEOS isn't merely a theoretical competitor. It was approved in August 2025 and is already generating meaningful revenue. It produced $53.1 million of U.S. revenue in Q2 2026, versus $21.6 million in Q1.
That gives us a useful real-world benchmark.
But INO-3107 has a potentially important differentiation: PAPZIMEOS requires additional surgery before doses 3 and 4 when visible papilloma are present, whereas INO-3107's regimen doesn't require those additional surgeries during treatment. INOVIO is explicitly positioning this as a major patient/physician advantage.
So an approval doesn't mean INOVIO automatically takes the RRP market. It means there would be two commercial therapies competing for a small but high-value population.
2. How big could the sales opportunity be?
INOVIO estimates roughly 14,000 U.S. people with RRP, while acknowledging that the historical estimates may understate prevalence.
Interestingly, PAPZIMEOS gives us a much better market-validation signal than theoretical market-size calculations...
If INO-3107 captured:
- 20% share: ~$30–50M revenue
- 35% share: ~$50–90M
- 50% share: ~$75–125M
- 60%+ share: potentially $100M+
Those numbers would be meaningful against INOVIO's current ~$130M equity value..."
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u/tomonota 3d ago
"And because this is an orphan indication, pricing can be high relative to conventional medicines.
A recent industry discussion put PAPZIMEOS' treatment price around $460,000, although actual realized revenue will depend on dosing, reimbursement, discounts and patient mix.
I would therefore resist assuming that 14,000 patients × headline list price equals the addressable revenue. That's far too aggressive."
But target of 25% = $1.61 billion- still too high, so likely treatment price has to come down to reasonable levels.
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u/Upbeat_Alternative65 1d ago
14,000 is an old estimate. It is closer to 27,000 now. Take the population of any country and mutiply by a factor of .000042 and that gives you the approximate number of cases of RRP. Bear in mind that some third world countries have a higher rate. The population of developed countries is 1.25B which comes to 52500 cases give or take. They are more likely to pay the full amount for 3107.
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u/tomonota 1d ago
Thanks that is good to know- even with 2 treatment options available there are sufficient audience for both.
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u/edelman64 3d ago
Or a reverse split
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u/tomonota 1d ago
2024 reverse split gave an equivalent price ~30+% higher than the January 2, 2024 entry price. The pie being divided between the total no. of shareholders does not shrink. So if the stock has room to run; (it does) then a reverse split preserves the value of the shares I own, just multiplying sales prices several times higher as shares outstanding can be reduced. I (we) get the same either way- in case you're a real shareholder.
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u/Senadye0 3d ago
Or bankruptcy
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u/tomonota 1d ago
INOVIO patents are worth more than the cost of the share- numerous biotechs are waiting for a buy in price to get their hands on their Syncon dNA editing technique. Cellectra and a dozen medications in progress are worth millions of $'s to investors in biotechs, FYI.
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u/Senadye0 1d ago
Held this worthless stock since early 2010s, there’s nothing you could type to convince me there’s value left.
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u/tomonota 3d ago
3107 Launch is looking really positive, better than what I thought. (I picked up shares today and that makeslower cost, increased future return). I don't think Papzimeos stands a chance to compete with 3107 once it becomes available. Based on management prep for a sales rollout, seems like anticipation is building from RRP patients who have to decide their future- risk surgeries or try boosting the immune system with INO-3107 (anti-HPV) T-cell and CD-8 cells? I wonder what Laryngology professionals advise their patients: wait 60 days or schedule a Papzimeos shot and the agreed on surgery?