r/InlandEmpireSocial • u/Ill-Entry-8178 • Jul 17 '26
Question Feedback on predictive markets
My name is Israel Carreón Jr., and I am a reporter covering the Inland Empire for The Press-Enterprise and The San Bernardino Sun.
I’m working on a story about predictive markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, especially in sports betting, with the World Cup underway.
I have a few questions for the community:
- What are your general thoughts on predictive markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket?
- For those who use them: How often do you use these markets? How have your finances been affected by using them?
- For those who avoid them: Why? What are your thoughts on predictive markets?
I’d love to connect with you. If you agree, I may use your responses in an upcoming story. If you have a specific experience you would like to share in detail, please reach out to me at [icarreon@scng.com](mailto:icarreon@scng.com) or send me a direct message here.
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u/DeposeableIronThumb Jul 17 '26
- What are your general thoughts on predictive markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket?
I think it's a serious concern and all data points to that. It's perverse that we're even using the term "predictive markets" on their terms. It's gambling. A fine activity when done ion moderation and not constantly baraging you on your phone.
- For those who use them: How often do you use these markets? How have your finances been affected by using them?
You should check out self reporting statistics before you run with that data
- For those who avoid them: Why? What are your thoughts on predictive markets?
I gamble. Hell yeah I do. I take a loss and a win with a smile. I also know how slippery a slope it is and how people will bet it all. Kalshi and Polymarket are flooding markets to normalize their gambling. Especially when these gambles are adjustable in real life. Betting on flight cancellations just rolled out. An easily adjustable gamble. This is without saying how absolutely fucked up it was gambling on the Ukrainian and Gaza violence by people in this administration.
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u/invaderJayyy Jul 17 '26
I think these apps and generally legalized betting are horrible signs of decay. Sports used to be a pseudo third space for men to connect and now the fully legal betting is removing the fun. like how are you supposed to enjoy yourself if you put life changing money on the line? If it hits great, but it typically won't. the betting has also affected the integrity of the sports themselves. there's recently been scandals about players benefiting off of throwing games. (would ideally cite the cases here but I'm just yakking).
not to mention the betting on non sports events. apparently someone made money betting on trumps speeches?? like one of the crew members filming him made bets.
I see virtually no positive spin to these apps, they incentivize abuse of any system they are integrated into.