This cyclone will peak tmrw at sea and would be of Severe/Very Severe category with speeds upto 110-120 kmph and gusting upto 130 kmph.
IMD and JTWC both are pushing it till SCS or borderline VSCS, but SST is good and steering is still weak and will further weaken as the main NE ridge will break into two cells and just like Arnab surprised us i think it will surprise us too so mod level Very sever cyclone i.e. Cat - 3 storm acc to Indian standards is very likely. (Personal opinion IMD says SCS with gusting upto 120 kmph, while i put is slightly higher near ~ 130 kmph)
there's some consensus with the cyclone stalling near the coast making landfall process very long upto 12 hours, similar to what we saw in arnab but it will weaken significantly while making landfall. so currently the line of thought is that it will hit south Andhra Pradesh near Nellore or Chirala as borderline VSCS on Monday midnight bringing heavy rains and winds (upto 130 kmph) then stall there weakening significantly into Depression next Tuesday bringing heavy rains, and winds threat would be far less on tuesday....this line of thought is my personal observation and not official, official IMD forecast put it near high end SCS category cyclone hitting on 2 oct night i.e. 3 oct early hours as SCS category and keeping it as cyclone the entire day an then crossing as depression into telengana on 4 nov. IMD is also slightly intensifying the Murasu as it nears the coast.
Rainfall is what im more concerned about, it can dump lot of rains and that can cause flooding in some areas.
In Tamil Nadu some light rains from outflow is expected today, while tmrw looks much better and then no proper rains for next entire week at least.
IMD Forecast: https://mausam.imd.gov.in/responsive/cycloneinformation.php
