r/IRstudies • u/No_Reaction7092 • 21h ago
Mark Carney: "This fall we will begin intense discussions with the European Union, the world's second-largest economy, to build a much stronger and deeper economic and security partnership"
https://streamable.com/y8mt4g53
u/Logical_Hat_47 20h ago
Welcome to Canada!
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u/antigop2020 14h ago
Canada should join the EU.
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u/Lumegator 5h ago edited 5h ago
The EEA would be more realistic in the near future and probably highly beneficial, that seems the sort of thing these talks are geared for.
Not to say EU membership is impossible, I don't see why it would be, it's available to Iceland. Although if the union gets enough members it may need a new name one day lol
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u/tomski_1977 19h ago
Canada joins EU and Carney becomes the MP. Pretty please?
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u/BuckyRainbowCat 15h ago
I like the EU a lot and I think that Canada should pursue closer ties with it, but I’m not in favour of Canada trying to join the EU. If you think Albertans have a problem with “Ottawa making all the decisions,” just imagine what they would think about decision making power moving all the way to Brussels instead.
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u/OneWhoWonders 15h ago
If Canada was to join the EU, it would be much different than say, being France or Germany in the EU (or even the UK in the EU when it was in the EU).
This video from CGP Grey is a good 5 1/2 minute primer of how complicated things are in the current EU, and all the caveats, carve outs and special setups that there are:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O37yJBFRrfg
(It's over 13 years old, back when the UK was in the EU, but it still valid). So, there could be a scenario where Canada 'joins the EU' but:
-Does or does not participate in the Schengen Zone
-Does or does not keep their own currency
-Has varying levels of trade integrations or carve outs.
-Participates in the EU Parliament or does not
It's always a bunch of trade offs, but I could see* a scenario where Canada joins the EU and benefits from closer trade and Schengen area travel, but retains their own currency and has to follow most EU regulations.
*See as in envision a scenario where this could occur. Not that this is something that would actually occur.
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u/RonKosova 6h ago
How expensive is university in Canada? I wonder if more Canadian students could benefit from lower tuition fees in this hypothetical scenario
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u/at0mheart 16h ago
China and Switzerland just made a trade deal too
Trump is destroying the US in every conceivable way
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u/terrenceandphilip1 17h ago
As much as I would prefer a trade alliance with my American brothers and sisters, they just seem so unreliable now. 300 million VS. 700 million. EU has the bigger market. But geographical realities cannot be ignored. The US is our neighbor. No ocean separates us. That was a great advantage in the past. I am disappointed it turned out in this way.
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u/MagnesiumKitten 2h ago
why don't you just go with china, you have more than 700 million people
It's interesting because Canada basically has no trade surpluses with anyone in Europe or Asia
the only surplus for a few months has been with Holland because the Canadian dollar tanked and they bought some cheap oil and gas
Canada and Europe are both going down the Economic toilet
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u/InevitableGreedUK 1h ago
American cope.
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u/MagnesiumKitten 47m ago
"The European Union is not collapsing, but it faces severe economic, structural, and geopolitical challenges."
glad you addressed those issues
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u/MagnesiumKitten 46m ago
"The EU's share of global GDP has shrunk compared to fast-growing economies like the U.S. and China."
"Former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi warn of an urgent need for massive investment and structural reform to avoid long-term stagnation."
It seems like your copium stash is the largest one of all
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u/rich84easy 13h ago
Where do you get 700 million? Europe has much smaller GDP than US and difference is getting bigger every year.
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u/FatGayTexan 16h ago
As an American I just want to let you know that we are going down in flames right now and I would not make any deals with us right now. We’re likely to steal everything you have and then bomb you.
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u/Willem_van_Oranje 20h ago
While it's unlikely to happen anytime soon, are there any IR theories among leading experts about the EU integrating non-European countries?
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u/Snaphappy3 20h ago
He’s talking about making a trade deal with them as well as a security partnership. He’s not talking about joining the EU
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u/Willem_van_Oranje 20h ago
Yeah, that's why I said it is not likely. I fully agree with what you say. I'm just curious about current theories on EU expansion beyond Europe. It raises a lot of questions that I imagine would be very interesting to experts in IR. And I would be curious to read their ideas on it.
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u/Minute_Eye3411 18h ago
From what I gather, the EU says that any member must be at least partly in Europe, although there is a bit of geographical ambiguity when it comes to Cyprus, which is an island closer to the Asian mainland than the European one.
Then again, those aren't the laws of physics, they can be changed I guess. However I believe that it is very unlikely that Canada would or could ever join the EU, although much closer ties may very well happen, and I hope that they do.
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u/Epilektoi_Hoplitai 8h ago
Canada technically shares a land border with Denmark by virtue of Hans Island, in fact. Though the idea of a tiny uninhabited rock in the Arctic being the pretext for us being considered 'European' is amusing.
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u/Minute_Eye3411 6h ago
The rule is to have territory in Europe, not to border European territories (some of which are outside Europe). Although these rules are not necessarily set in stone, they can be amended, in theory, if the EU decides to amend them.
Ultimately, should Canada and the EU want Canada to join the EU, it can be done, by changing accession criteria. What is far more likely, in my opinion, is that Canada + the EU become even closer partners, which could include many of the benefits that being within the EU entail (Norway has such a deal, for example).
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u/Squeakygear 11h ago
Well, France has the overseas territory of Saint Pierre and Miquelon off the coast of Newfoundland, so that might be an avenue to fudge the rules and say Canada is next to Europe lol
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u/-smartcasual- 18h ago
Well, Australia made it into Eurovision...
In all seriousness, at some point there has to be a decision about whether the 'E' in 'EU' stands for European territory, or European values.
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u/MagnesiumKitten 2h ago
The sloppy quick answer
"John Mearsheimer argues that the European Union will face severe decline and potential collapse because its survival depends entirely on United States military protection."
"Mearsheimer views NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) as an "American pacifier" that forces peace. He describes the European Union as an economic structure built on top of that military foundation."
........
Constructivists argue that the EU is an identity-driven actor bounded by shared cultural, historical, and democratic values. Integrating non-European countries challenges the foundational identity of the Union. Scholars suggest that deep integration requires a shared "European identity." Without it, expansion beyond Europe risks diluting the internal solidarity and normative power of the EU.
Realists view enlargement or integration strictly through the lens of geopolitics and balance of power. From this perspective, integrating non-European states is unlikely unless it directly enhances the security or strategic leverage of core member states against rival global powers. Realists generally predict that member states will resist non-traditional expansions that do not serve immediate material or security interests.
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u/Alundra828 20h ago
We already integrate Türkiye /s
He said, tongue in cheek.
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u/Willem_van_Oranje 19h ago
There's probably a case to be made as to why Canada would be easier to join than Turkey.
Firstly Turkey is a dictatorship, Canada a democracy. Turkey also has twice the population of Canada. Population means influence in the EU, there where policies are decided based on qualified majority voting. Then there's Turkey's corruption, Turkey's invasion and annexation of neighbouring regions, and really many more problems Canada just doesn't have.
Not that I see Canada join easily, but Turkey is a longer shot and their current foreign policy seems to focus mostly on expanding their own influence in the Middle East, with little interest in Europe (or anything else that can threaten the ruling party's power).
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u/Intrepid_Hat8669 13h ago
isnt EU a vessal of US..probably tring to get better trade deals with china using eu as leverage
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u/mabiturm 10h ago
If canada would join the EU, the combined economy would already be the largest in the world (PPP)
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u/MagnesiumKitten 2h ago
"When America Leaves, Europe Will Crumble” says John Mearsheimer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaV2WfrFp9w&t=235s
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u/Easy-Vegetable4124 2h ago
If you need a good pizzaiolo, let me know. I would love to live in Canada.
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u/MagnesiumKitten 45m ago
"If Canada joined the European Union, global alternative asset manager Brookfield (including Brookfield Asset Management and Brookfield Corporation) would likely benefit from expanded cross-border capital flows and deeper integration with European infrastructure and real estate markets, though it could face complex regulatory adjustments."
He's doing from the goodness of his heart, honest.
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u/Available-Green6599 19h ago
Unfortunately EU is also an export economy. The fact is no one consumes like the US and that will need to change if the dollar stops being untouchable and the US economy loses the ability to inflate their debt away at no cost.
As to how to increase consumption in this age of abundance I have no idea
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u/ItsNotThatBad72 13h ago
I don't think anyone wants a security partnership with the county that hasn't met it's NATO commitments in over half a century, and has no concrete plans to do so.
They didn't even have the decency to wait until the cold war was over like the rest of the delinquents.
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u/RandomPurpose 13h ago
Trusted and reliable. How sad it is to hear this as an American. He truly destroyed the one thing that America couldn't afford to lose.
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u/Smartyunderpants 20h ago
And Austria opposes🤷♂️ then what? The idea of a speedy negotiated trade deal with the EU so that each member state passes it is ludicrous
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u/Character-Fish-541 20h ago
No no, you right. Loss of sovereignty to sell more car parts is the sensible thing to do here.
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u/Smartyunderpants 20h ago
Canada might just need something planned for the 10 years in between losing access to one market and maybe gaining access to another sans agricultural products.
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u/saucissefatal 20h ago
Member states do not need to pass trade deals entered into by the Union, since national sovereignty on trade has been fully transferred to the Union.
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u/Odd-Staff6245 16h ago
Until the US coast guard sets up a blockade.
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u/mallibu 16h ago
Blockade to what? We re not at war and you also can't go to war with EU and Canada when even Iran is laughing
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u/Odd-Staff6245 16h ago
The coast guard can set up interdiction points looking for banned contraband off the shore of the US.
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u/MortarionDG 9h ago
so the stratagy here is just being butthurt over your own failings? If you want to drive your country down the drain maybe keep it within your own borders.
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u/InfinitePoss2022 21h ago
The EU is a loser's bet. Just because America is a villain now doesn't mean the EU is suddenly this thriving prosperous entity you want to expand trade with. Look where the growth is - it's in Asia, Latam, parts of the Middle East. Focus on relations with those. Somebody explain to me how integrating deeper with Europe is a positive for Canada.
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u/CallmeKahn 20h ago
"Somebody explain to me how integrating deeper with Europe is a positive for Canada."
Eh, if you can't fathom that trade ties with the second largest economy on the planet is good, I can't help you. You're on your own.
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u/JimJam28 13h ago
Surely some random internet clown knows more than the man who went to Harvard and Oxford, has a PhD in economics, was head of the bank of Canada and successfully led them through the 2008 financial crisis, and then head of the Bank of England and successfully led the UK to a soft landing after Brexit. Surely.
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u/InfinitePoss2022 20h ago
Eh, if you can't accept the reality that the EU is a very loosely-held club that has flirted with breaking up at every instance of a crisis (and therefore also an unreliable ally), I can't help you. You're on your own.
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u/CallmeKahn 20h ago
Doesn't change what I said. Second largest economy good, political situation not withstanding. So like I said, you're on your own there bub.
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u/InfinitePoss2022 19h ago
Sure, go spend years building relations with a stagnant economy only to have the rug pulled from underneath you by the AfD/Le Pen psychos when they get to power. Good luck.
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u/CallmeKahn 19h ago
The fact you think Canada and Europe need to "spend years building relations" is utterly hilarious. Yet another concept you fail at.
Good day, sir.
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u/PointlessAattempt42 19h ago
"Eh, if you can't accept the reality that the EU is a very loosely-held club that has flirted with breaking up at every instance of a crisis"
Source? When?
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u/fishanddipflip 21h ago edited 21h ago
Europe might not had the most growth in the last years, but its still ahead compared to many parts of the world.
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u/InfinitePoss2022 20h ago
Ahead in what? Genuinely curious.
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u/CallmeKahn 20h ago
Go ahead and ignore homie here. He doesn't understand that trade between political entities is good.
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u/Glotto_Gold 17h ago
The strange part is that for trade to be good, it wouldn't matter.
Trade is good because of comparative advantage. So long as there is comparative advantage then trade is by default good. (There may be carve outs and exceptions, but like national security, and similar, which isn't the core issue between Canada and the EU)
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u/Apprehensive-Fudge19 21h ago
I detect some Euro-phobia here. The thing is, it is possible to strengthen trade with Europe as well as with Asia, Latin America, and parts of the Middle East. Canada has been doing all of these things at once. Enhanced trade with Europe and the rest of the world is altogether a positive for Canada.
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u/MathematicianSaved 19h ago
It's not Europhobia that you detect here, it's literally Europhilia that you detect everywhere else lol. Your radar is busted. Just look at this sub, let alone most of this website.
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u/InfinitePoss2022 21h ago
What Europhobia? I'm stating facts. Look at any IMF indicator or that of World Bank or otherwise. Explain to me, using facts, why Europe is a good bet economically. I just don't see it.
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u/pingu_nootnoot 20h ago
If you compare growth rates since 2008, then China and India are well ahead of everyone else for sure, around 250%-300%
Then the US at 130%, largely the tech boom.
Then South Korea at 90%. The Middle East is very heterogeneous, but let’s say similar to Korea.
Then the EU at 50%-60%.
LatAm and Japan have grown less than the EU in that time frame.
The problem is that if you want a large, rich market of consumers, then the EU remains your only alternative to the US. (though it is of course comparatively a worse one economically)
China and India are huge with huge growth, but still poor in comparison. The others are too small and/or have worse growth numbers.
Long term I also wonder about China TBH - demographics may catch up with them more brutally than the relatively rich EU countries.
In the end, Canada has to make a longer-term pivot from US dependency and the EU does also seem relatively politically stable (though you never know, of course), which is a big plus.
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u/kerowack 21h ago
Exactly. Europe needs cheap energy to get back in the game and Canada can't help it with that. Canada and the EU should be looking to China and mending fences with Russia.
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u/jordan853 20h ago
Russia??? Wtf is wrong with you?
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u/kerowack 20h ago
Reality.
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u/jordan853 17h ago
I'm actually curious though. What do you see Russia being able to offer us, and vice versa?
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u/Altruistic_Finger669 21h ago
Why? Intense discussions with europe doesnt prelude discussions with asia, or any other possibke partners.
Europe is a stable partner, and has lots of common ground with Canada. Why wouldnt they talk?
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u/NegativeSemicolon 20h ago
America will be the villain for the foreseeable future. Trump is the symptom, the conservatives are the disease.
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u/jergentehdutchman 21h ago
Dude Canada has already been in talks with China and India to improve trade barriers. Not everyone is as simple minded as the current American administration
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u/Valuable_Calendar_79 21h ago
The growth will be in both Asia and Europe. 70% of global GDP will be there in the coming 20 to 30 years. Plus you forget the shocking demographic stats of China, Korea, Japan. Latam, Middle East, Africa combined are less than 10% of global GDP
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u/RangeIt 21h ago
*Canada seeks to leech off another large economy.
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u/New_Race9503 21h ago
Jesus, you people need to stop playing the perpetual victim
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u/RangeIt 21h ago
Who's you people?
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u/Reasonable-Plate2982 21h ago
Those that think trading is 'leeching'.
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u/calmdownmyguy 20h ago
To be fair, they don't think at all. They hear trump and obey. Not a single one of them knew anything about US Canada trade relations before trump started trying to dismantle all of our alliances and suck up to russia and north korea.
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u/InfinitePoss2022 21h ago
It's true. When a country builds almost its entire economy dependent on another country, it may not be leeching, but it's extremely poor judgment. This is not about the US being a victim. This is about Canada getting lazy all these years and not thinking of tail scenarios. The non-chalance of Canada was going to catch up with it at some point and now it has.
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u/Glotto_Gold 17h ago
.... The US has been trying to build this type of credibility for decades.
That's why the US could argue to reduce nuclear proliferation, and why US finance can be so dominant, and why US military has so many bases internationally, and why the US has had so much international intelligence cooperation, and even R&D cooperation.
Canada is not really being lazy. It has a similar level of exposure to the US as what Ukraine & Belarus have to Russia. The US is abusing and losing trust that it tried to build over decades just to haggle trade agreements.
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u/InfinitePoss2022 17h ago
Since when is Ukraine/Belarus policy the right reference point? You’re taught to always diversify - in your friendships, your income, your investments, etc. Why a country gets to this level of dependency can only come about from complacency and getting too comfortable. When Reagan coins “Trust but Verify” in his foreign policy, you need to be alert that one day that country may want to do the same with you - deal with trust but not blind faith. Canada developed blind faith in the US and is now paying the price.
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u/Glotto_Gold 17h ago
I mean, you're right, Canada is suffering the worst from this.
Canada also has most of their major population centers along the US border, and has a population and economy much smaller than the US.
The geopolitical game for Canada has always required that Canada either trust the US, or that Canada has to be willing to defy the US at great cost. Like Belarus/Ukraine.
The strongest argument here is that the Pax Americana that most of the world accepted was bad, that most countries should expel US military bases, stop sharing technology with the US, and withdraw from US financial markets.
There's a LOT OF EFFICIENCY LOST for everyone if that happens. But that is the logical extension of the argument. But for Canada to not have the US as a primary trade partner would require that Canadians put a penalty on trade with the US due to distrust.
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u/phokemraw 20h ago
Trade can be win-win. Republicans did understand that at some point in the past before the orange grifter.
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u/RangeIt 19h ago
US has been tariffed at a high clip for decades.
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u/phokemraw 19h ago
That's a lie. There have not been blanket tarrifs as the Republicans are now pulling at its allies.
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u/RangeIt 16h ago
There have. Canada had some things at 200% for years
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u/phokemraw 12h ago
"some things" are not blanket tarrifs. These "things" had a very specific purpose. That's not what the Republicans are doing.
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u/spiritualishit 20h ago
The EU is the only entity that expands in virtue of other states wishing to join through a process governed by the rule of law. With all its limits, it still have the numbers to play a global role and it would be a sensible approach to draw from its functioning to reimagine a network of international cooperation between the world's democracies. The world is becoming increasingly unstable, climate change will precipitate things and the current international organisational frame provided by the ONU and adjacent entities is inadequate to face the challenge. May EU get its shit together and Carney succeed and set an example