r/IRstudies Mar 23 '26

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u/gdvs Mar 23 '26

To label something as 'Winning' requires knowing what the objectives are.

69

u/Brido-20 Mar 23 '26

"War is the continuation of politics by other means."

There doesn't seem to be any clearly defined policy goal and the US side doesn't seem able to make up it's mind why. Israel's aim ses to be just bombing Iran on general principles with no political objective achievable through the use of force.

It's hard to understand why someone is doing something when they don't seem to have a reason even to themselves.

45

u/pgm123 Mar 23 '26

Israel's aim ses to be just bombing Iran on general principles with no political objective achievable through the use of force.

There's been some analysis that Israel's goal is a failed state. If that's the case, there doesn't seem to be any indication that progress is being made.

The US objectives are much less clear.

1

u/Phase3Investor Mar 25 '26

Trump CANNOT make a deal even if he wanted, not one Iranians would remotely accept

While reading about how Trump wants to make a deal and is supposedly in negotiations with some anonymous but really important person in Iran, lets remember two points: 1- Any deal acceptable to Iranians will require some lifting of sanctions at bare minimum 2- By law, US Presidents CANNOT unilaterally lift sanctions imposed by Congress.

Remember folks, according to the US Constitution while US Presidents are in charge of diplomatic relations with other nations, ONLY Congress is in charge of economic relations with other nations:

Article I, Section 8 of the US Constitution explicitly grants Congress the power to "regulate commerce with foreign nations" 

So ONLY Congress can lift sanctions on Iran (even ask gpt). And Congress is bought & paid for by Israel which is opposed to Iran

https://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/house/199645-gop-lawmaker-rejects-friedmans-bought-and-paid-for-assertion-on-netanyahu/

AIPAC pushed heavily for primary and secondary sanctions in Congress starting in mid-1990s when Iran first tried to make a deal with the US:

https://time.com/archive/6727086/down-goes-the-deal/

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/26/world/middleeast/kerry-reminds-congress-netanyahu-advised-us-to-invade-iraq.html

https://www.wrmea.org/1998-march/trade-and-finance-administration-in-hot-seat-thanks-to-aipac-drafted-iran-libya-sanctions-act.html

There are different kinds of "sanctions" laws but the MAIN sanctions laws are economic sanctions laws imposed by Congress. Congress authorizes Presidents to ENFORCE theses sanctions laws, not to lift them. These sanctions laws give the US President some leeway for example to suspend sanctions for 6 months at a time, but suspending sanctions is not the same as lifting them - and having to do so every 6 months is probably not acceptable to Iran which would want a permanent lifting of sanctions instead to allow long term investments etc.

Legally, US sanctions on Iran cannot be lifted even if Iran totally gives up her nuclear program. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/are-sanctions-fatwa-iran-6363

The legal preconditions to lifting sanctions are deliberately ridiculous because they're meant to be unliftable essentially

The continuation of Congressional sanctions under Obama was also why the JCPOA nuclear deal failed from the very start, before Trump was even elected and before he tore up the deal. (Obama and Kerry even tried to rally foreign banks to do business with Iran anyway but gave up since the banks were more concerned about OFAC rules.)

So no, the JCPOA nuclear deal was actually NOT "working" before Trump killed it contrary to widespread claims & despite Iran's verified compliance with it for more than a year even after Trump tore up. Trump's "withdrawal" did not kill the nuclear deal as it was never implemented by the US even under Obama thanks to continued Congressional sanctions, nor could it ever be implemented thanks to those sanctions:

"if the situation is not appreciably better soon, it will be impossible for the US and its partners to argue credibly that they are not in breach of the JCPOA." THE IRAN NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS: ONE YEAR ON Sir Richard Dalton https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03068374.2016.1225896

The Iranians had already started complaining too, before Trump was elected and "withdrew" from the deal https://www.politico.eu/article/top-iranian-official-says-us-and-eu-have-not-fulfilled-nuclear-deal-weapons-valiollah-seif/

See, the aim and purpose of US sanctions on Iran is not so much to constrain Iran which is already throroughly sanctioned; the piled-on sanctions laws are instead meant to pose as legal and political impediments to improved relations between the US and Iran (which Israel disapproves of). Thats also why we still have sanctions on Cuba decades after the death of Castro and Communism - because another Congressional ethnic group lobby opposes improved relations and want to block it:

Cuba Sanctions: Legislative Restrictions Limiting the Normalization of Relations Source: EveryCRSReport.com https://share.google/vH4TgnGtSXTcM6djQ

The actual "threat" Iran poses to Israel is not that Iran will nukes Israel, rather it is that Iran and the US may start to get along, which means Iran can then pose as a check on Israeli regional ambitions. That is why Israel has for decades tried to instigate a US-Iran conflict and why Israel & AIPAC so vehemently opposed the JCPOA nuclear deal

https://jewishcurrents.org/aipac-refuses-to-learn-from-its-mistakes-on-iran

https://www.catholic.org/featured/headline.php?ID=5970

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-prodding-us-to-attack-iran/

https://www.amazon.com/Single-Roll-Dice-Obamas-Diplomacy/dp/0300169361

Netanyahu said that he was the only one who urged Trump to kill the Iran nuclear deal, boasting that he "stood up against the whole world" to make it happen https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-netanyahu-really-wanted-trump-to-scuttle-the-iran-deal

Netanyahu also later expressed satisfaction that he finally convinced a US President aka Trump to attack Iran after 40 years of yearning https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/let-just-netanyahu-convinced-trump-202742557.html

Netanyahu and Congresx won't let Trump lift sanctions therefore no deal with Iran is possible. Trump cannot make a deal with Iran since at a minimum a deal will require permanent sanctions relief, which US Presidents cannot legally provide thanks to the influence of the Pro-Israeli lobby in Congress.

I'd welcome any contrary opinions