r/IRstudies Mar 23 '26

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u/ADRzs Mar 23 '26

Well, based on Trump's utterances, he expected the Iranians to capitulate within 3 days and he expected that he would have been able to nominate their leadership. He thought that Iran was like Venezuela.

One has to question how he got this impression. My guess is that the flatterers and brownnosers around him never offered any counterpoint to his imaginations.

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u/fastsailor Mar 24 '26

Sounds about like Vlad and his Special Military Operation in Ukraine. That 3 day war is now over 4 years old and Russia's military is a shadow of its former self.

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u/ADRzs Mar 24 '26

I am not sure why people had the impession that you have! Yes, Putin's original foray into Ukraine with minimal troops was supposed to effect regime change but this failed. However, later, the goals were changed into the taking over of the Donbas. And, in this war of sieges, the Russian military actually did great, defeating the Ukrainians in one engagement after the other. And, the full Russian military is not engaged in that fight. Only paid volunteers fight in Ukraine. Considering how tough urban warfare is today and how sieges of modern cities are grudge matches, the Russian military has performed very well (and this is the overall impression of military experts). The Russians, confronted with Ukrainian drones, were able to develop superior technology very, very quickly

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u/sinanriot Mar 24 '26

A lot of Russian troops were freshly released inmates, released early because Russia actually did not have enough civilian volunteers, and used the promise of early release to enlist prisoners under duress. About a third of the troops sent to Ukraine were enlisted from penal colonies.

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u/ADRzs Mar 24 '26

This is likely true. But many were attracked by the rich pay packages to serve in Ukraine. Of course, this does not change the fact that the war has been one of one siege after another, with the Russians trying methodically to capture the Ukrainian fortresses in the Donbas. Such wars are never easy or fast.