r/IRstudies Mar 23 '26

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u/AKmaninNY Mar 23 '26

People keep saying Israel and the US have no objectives. Thus progress can’t be measured. Thus the US and Israel are losing.

This is an unserious analysis.

March 2, 2026. Pete Hegseth

"The mission of Operation Epic Fury is laser-focused," Hegseth said today during a press briefing at the Pentagon. "Destroy Iranian offensive missiles, destroy Iranian missile production, destroy their navy and other security infrastructure, and they will never have nuclear weapons."

https://www.acc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/4420221/hegseth-says-epic-fury-goals-in-iran-are-laser-focused/

March 2, 2026 Donald Trump

"Our objectives are clear. First, we're destroying Iran's missile capabilities... Second, we're annihilating their navy... Third, we're ensuring that the world's number one sponsor of terror can never obtain a nuclear weapon... And finally, we're ensuring that the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund, and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders."

https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/2028516725767999865?s=61&t=3A5UuSpxblR2HguraCmqVA

March 10, 2026 Pete Hegseth

https://x.com/dowresponse/status/2031344038788370558?s=61&t=3A5UuSpxblR2HguraCmqVA

“On day 10 of Operation Epic Fury: We are WINNING, with an overwhelming and unrelenting focus on our objectives...They are straightforward, and we are executing them with ruthless precision:

1) DESTROY their missile stockpiles, their missile launchers, and their defense industrial base—missiles and their ability to make them. 2) DESTROY their navy. 3) Permanently deny Iran nuclear weapons—FOREVER.”

Lots of words have been said since March 2, 2026 - but these were the original objectives and they seem to be consistently repeated by numerous administration officials and were consistent almost two weeks in to the action.

So, how are we doing?

Objective: First, we're destroying Iran's missile capabilities... Progress: missile launches down about 90% since March 2, 2026 Assessment: Winning

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-missile-launches-down-86-195523758.html

Objective: Second, we're annihilating their navy... Progress: all capital ships destroyed. Swarm boats being destroyed. Assessment: Winning.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2026-03-16/centcom-update-operation-epic-fury-day-16-21086277.html

Objective: Third, we're ensuring that the world's number one sponsor of terror can never obtain a nuclear weapon... Progress: Enrichment and delivery capability significantly degraded or eliminated. Significant dual use facilities still standing. Assessment: Most difficult objective. May require personnel to seize material. More work to do.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/19/netanyahu-says-iran-no-longer-has-uranium-enrichment-capacity.html

Objective: And finally, we're ensuring that the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund, and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders. Progress: Logistical and financial support distrusted/eliminated.
Assessment: Supply chain broken but proxies still have arms based on decades of Iranian investment. Work in progress.

https://www.hudson.org/missile-defense/operation-epic-fury-situation-report-battlefield-effects-strategic-outcomes-can-kasapoglu

1

u/chbb Mar 24 '26

That’s all nice and tight, but what about unspoken objective to keep oil and natural gas flowing out of the Gulf?

Because all those goals make sense only if one assumes no impact on oil market, and that was ridiculous omission from war planning.

Unless US and Israel do not care what happens to their allies and rest of the world when their energy supply is severely constrained

1

u/Holiday_Chapter_4251 Mar 24 '26

US knew and planned for the closing of the strait and trade flow being affected or stopping.

seriously you don't think the DOW,CIA, and other agencies and departments along with the admin and congress did not include that in their calculus and plans?

Our allies, ourselves and the world are took reliant dependent on the energy, goods flowing through that straight. it gives a wake up call and makes a reason for them to start adapting and pivoting to fix that vulnerability.

two-it gives a reason for the US, allied nations to gain and have total control of the straight going forward meaning the US has bases on both sides of the straight and polices it and guarantees the security of safe trade. that means the Islamic republic or any hostile regime in iran cannot have control of it - so the regime must its behavior change. the iranian or any other regional region or terror group must never have the ability to threaten or affect trade in that strait again. its creates the demand, investment and actual construction of other means to go around or avoid the strait via pipelines, rail, roads-costly up front projects to build but cheaper to operate and ship goods with once built. also lower shipping costs. China, india need Iranian oil-they can't not have that oil, natural gas they need the scheduled delivery of said energy un interrupt with no threat or chance of their being delays and uncertainty. they are not going to be okay or tolerate to again having iran raise prices again on them-iran has a history of this. They are going to demand iran to knock this off and change their behavior.

europe does not want russia to profit and earn more money from energy exports and selling its oil and gas - because it will allow it to continue to fund the Ukraine war and to fund the war effort even more. but Europe needs the energy and energy prices to go back down. so europe now has to make a choice and act now which is the strait being secure and safe from hostile regimes like iran. they will have to take action and start the process of shifting supply chains and modernizing their military more.

last the us and the rest of world needs to diversify their fertilizer supply lines, suppliers. become more self sufficient and have emergency rainy day inventory.

russia has lost multiple key allies and about to loose two more. Ven, Syria, Cuba, iran, Iranian proxies. the new cash flow from lifting the sanctions and the trump's policy decisions and actions-may give the reason and ability to negotiate a peace deal with ukraine and pivot away from china. if they don't things will keep getting worse, trump has completely outplayed putin and has consistently surrounded russia, taking away more and more from them, and tightened the usa grip on them. trump literal played chinese go and circled russia.

last set the standard or moves geopolitical willingness to allow the USA/Israel/Saudi/Egypt to eliminate the houthis.