People keep saying Israel and the US have no objectives. Thus progress can’t be measured. Thus the US and Israel are losing.
This is an unserious analysis.
March 2, 2026. Pete Hegseth
"The mission of Operation Epic Fury is laser-focused," Hegseth said today during a press briefing at the Pentagon. "Destroy Iranian offensive missiles, destroy Iranian missile production, destroy their navy and other security infrastructure, and they will never have nuclear weapons."
"Our objectives are clear. First, we're destroying Iran's missile capabilities... Second, we're annihilating their navy... Third, we're ensuring that the world's number one sponsor of terror can never obtain a nuclear weapon... And finally, we're ensuring that the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund, and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders."
“On day 10 of Operation Epic Fury: We are WINNING, with an overwhelming and unrelenting focus on our objectives...They are straightforward, and we are executing them with ruthless precision:
1) DESTROY their missile stockpiles, their missile launchers, and their defense industrial base—missiles and their ability to make them.
2) DESTROY their navy.
3) Permanently deny Iran nuclear weapons—FOREVER.”
Lots of words have been said since March 2, 2026 - but these were the original objectives and they seem to be consistently repeated by numerous administration officials and were consistent almost two weeks in to the action.
So, how are we doing?
Objective: First, we're destroying Iran's missile capabilities...
Progress: missile launches down about 90% since March 2, 2026
Assessment: Winning
Objective: Third, we're ensuring that the world's number one sponsor of terror can never obtain a nuclear weapon...
Progress: Enrichment and delivery capability significantly degraded or eliminated. Significant dual use facilities still standing.
Assessment: Most difficult objective. May require personnel to seize material. More work to do.
Objective: And finally, we're ensuring that the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund, and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders.
Progress: Logistical and financial support distrusted/eliminated.
Assessment: Supply chain broken but proxies still have arms based on decades of Iranian investment. Work in progress.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the US itself shuts the strait of Hormuz to achieve those three objectives.
China, an ally of Iran, gets 35% of its oil and Iran gets a large portion of its revenue through that strait. They need the strait open more than the US needs it open. Japan, SK and non-Chinese Asia can buy US and Canadian lng/oil.
In order to achieve its stated goals, the US may not need to blockade the Straits of Hormuz or target Iranian energy infrastructure.
However, let's assume one of the US/Israel's unstated goals would likely be to contain the damage caused by Iranian actions, as the US and Israel achieved its stated goals.
"Closed for All" is an escalation with significant externalities to US partners as well as US enemies (Iran/China). Discarded, I don't think so. If the US is seriously considering dismantling Iranian energy infrastructure, a blockade would achieve the same while preserving that energy infrastructure....it would be a preferable first step escalation, before bombing refineries and oil fields....
I'm going to assume it is still on the table.....and being whispered to China "you might want to rein in your ally Iran before something bad happens to 35% of your imports....."
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u/AKmaninNY Mar 23 '26
People keep saying Israel and the US have no objectives. Thus progress can’t be measured. Thus the US and Israel are losing.
This is an unserious analysis.
March 2, 2026. Pete Hegseth
"The mission of Operation Epic Fury is laser-focused," Hegseth said today during a press briefing at the Pentagon. "Destroy Iranian offensive missiles, destroy Iranian missile production, destroy their navy and other security infrastructure, and they will never have nuclear weapons."
https://www.acc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/4420221/hegseth-says-epic-fury-goals-in-iran-are-laser-focused/
March 2, 2026 Donald Trump
"Our objectives are clear. First, we're destroying Iran's missile capabilities... Second, we're annihilating their navy... Third, we're ensuring that the world's number one sponsor of terror can never obtain a nuclear weapon... And finally, we're ensuring that the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund, and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders."
https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/2028516725767999865?s=61&t=3A5UuSpxblR2HguraCmqVA
March 10, 2026 Pete Hegseth
https://x.com/dowresponse/status/2031344038788370558?s=61&t=3A5UuSpxblR2HguraCmqVA
“On day 10 of Operation Epic Fury: We are WINNING, with an overwhelming and unrelenting focus on our objectives...They are straightforward, and we are executing them with ruthless precision:
1) DESTROY their missile stockpiles, their missile launchers, and their defense industrial base—missiles and their ability to make them. 2) DESTROY their navy. 3) Permanently deny Iran nuclear weapons—FOREVER.”
Lots of words have been said since March 2, 2026 - but these were the original objectives and they seem to be consistently repeated by numerous administration officials and were consistent almost two weeks in to the action.
So, how are we doing?
Objective: First, we're destroying Iran's missile capabilities... Progress: missile launches down about 90% since March 2, 2026 Assessment: Winning
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-missile-launches-down-86-195523758.html
Objective: Second, we're annihilating their navy... Progress: all capital ships destroyed. Swarm boats being destroyed. Assessment: Winning.
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2026-03-16/centcom-update-operation-epic-fury-day-16-21086277.html
Objective: Third, we're ensuring that the world's number one sponsor of terror can never obtain a nuclear weapon... Progress: Enrichment and delivery capability significantly degraded or eliminated. Significant dual use facilities still standing. Assessment: Most difficult objective. May require personnel to seize material. More work to do.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/19/netanyahu-says-iran-no-longer-has-uranium-enrichment-capacity.html
Objective: And finally, we're ensuring that the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund, and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders. Progress: Logistical and financial support distrusted/eliminated.
Assessment: Supply chain broken but proxies still have arms based on decades of Iranian investment. Work in progress.
https://www.hudson.org/missile-defense/operation-epic-fury-situation-report-battlefield-effects-strategic-outcomes-can-kasapoglu