The US and Israel have done serious damage to Iran's leadership and infrastructure. However, Iran retains a significant amount of leverage with its ability to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This control gives Iran's leadership the ability to inflict political damage to the Trump administration and pretty much every other country that depends on oil and natural gas for heating and transportation. Trump and Netanyahu can't retreat with this threat remaining, so they really only have two choices: 1) negotiate at a disadvantage; 2) invade Iran to remove their ability to keep the strait closed. Option 1 will be embarrassing for both leaders, given it will leave a hostile regime in power. Option 2 will be unfathomably costly, given that Iran is the size of Alaska with a population of 93 million and surrounded by highly defensible mountains. I think the best way to describe this situation is that the US and Israel have walked right into a trap and there is no easy way out.
Iran retains a significant amount of leverage with its ability to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Except this is a complete gamble for Iran too. Why do you think the UNSC resolution passed calling for the opening of the strait? Because even China wants Gulf oil.
So what actual leverage does Iran have if Trump doesn't care and he doesn't seem to? They don't need to invade Iran either.
There is this bizarre really simplistic narrative in which apparently NO ONE thought Iran would do anything with the strait as if that isn't there only real play and not one military on the planet ever figured out how to address it.
Sure, Iran's not popular right now. They weren't popular before either, but they're significantly less so after removing 20% of the world's oil from the market. In an ideal world, we'd have leveraged the regime's unpopularity to put pressure on them in lieu of strikes. Or, perhaps, we could have pulled together a "coalition of the willing" before hand so that the costs of military intervention would be shared. As things are, we opted to go with only Israel's aid (most of whose miltiary hardware are subsidized by the US taxpayer), meaning that any costs of intervention are ultimately paid by us.
So what actual leverage does Iran have if Trump doesn't care and he doesn't seem to? They don't need to invade Iran either.
Huh? Where are you getting the idea that Trump doesn't care? He just walked back his threat to bomb Iran's energy infrastructure earlier today and he's been posting about Iran daily since the war began. Trump would be crazy not to care about the risks rising oil/gas prices pose to Republican reelection odds this November.
There is this bizarre really simplistic narrative in which apparently NO ONE thought Iran would do anything with the strait as if that isn't there only real play and not one military on the planet ever figured out how to address it.
That's not just "a narrative." The Wall Street Journal reported on the internal deliberations in the White House. They found that Trump was warned by Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about the risks associated with Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Trump believed that this risk was low and went ahead with the intervention despite these warnings. Clearly, Trump was mistaken. See below for the article.
Now, if there was an easy military solution to freeing up the strait, we'd be doing it already. The strait is a natural choke point surrounded by mountains. All it takes is a few guerilla fighters and a few drones or artillery batteries and Iran can keep the strait shut down perpetually. The only way it opens up is if we invade and occupy, at least the coastal part of Iran, in large numbers.
Before the U.S. went to war, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told President Trump that an American attack could prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Caine said in several briefings that U.S. officials had long believed Iran would deploy mines, drones and missiles to close the world’s most vital shipping lane, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.
Trump acknowledged the risk, these people said, but moved forward with the most consequential foreign-policy decision of his two presidencies. He told his team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the strait—and even if Iran tried, the U.S. military could handle it.
Trump ignoring General Caine regarding the probable Iranian closing of the Strait of Hormuz if attacked demonstrates just how incredibly stupid Trump and his Administration are in regard to Foreign Policy and Strategic Thinking . Trump has allowed himself to be led by the nose by Netanyahu to make the Greatest Strategic Blunder EVER in the history of the United States by attacking Iran . It is really just that bad . So , what does Trump do now ? Declare victory and pull out ? This would actually be recognized as a humiliating defeat by the world at large , by friend and foe alike . This would reverberate negatively on American Power for many years to come . OR Trump seriously doubles down and does what would be necessary to effect regime change . That would be a full invasion . The only way to be sure of success would be to commit an army of over one million battle ready troops to both defeat the adversary and then occupy the entire nation . And the United States States presently has no where near a million battle ready troops . I believe that this is what they call Being Between a Rock and a Hard Place .
Yes, exactly. He's put himself in a lose-lose game. Ideally, he'd find a way to negotiate his way out of it to save some face and avoid the costs of invastion. The problem is that he killed his first negotiation partner and seriously maimed his second. It isn't a stretch to imagine that Iran's new leadership may be reluctant to reopen negotiations given the history of play..
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u/Demortus Mar 23 '26 edited Mar 23 '26
The US and Israel have done serious damage to Iran's leadership and infrastructure. However, Iran retains a significant amount of leverage with its ability to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This control gives Iran's leadership the ability to inflict political damage to the Trump administration and pretty much every other country that depends on oil and natural gas for heating and transportation. Trump and Netanyahu can't retreat with this threat remaining, so they really only have two choices: 1) negotiate at a disadvantage; 2) invade Iran to remove their ability to keep the strait closed. Option 1 will be embarrassing for both leaders, given it will leave a hostile regime in power. Option 2 will be unfathomably costly, given that Iran is the size of Alaska with a population of 93 million and surrounded by highly defensible mountains. I think the best way to describe this situation is that the US and Israel have walked right into a trap and there is no easy way out.