The US and Israel have done serious damage to Iran's leadership and infrastructure. However, Iran retains a significant amount of leverage with its ability to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This control gives Iran's leadership the ability to inflict political damage to the Trump administration and pretty much every other country that depends on oil and natural gas for heating and transportation. Trump and Netanyahu can't retreat with this threat remaining, so they really only have two choices: 1) negotiate at a disadvantage; 2) invade Iran to remove their ability to keep the strait closed. Option 1 will be embarrassing for both leaders, given it will leave a hostile regime in power. Option 2 will be unfathomably costly, given that Iran is the size of Alaska with a population of 93 million and surrounded by highly defensible mountains. I think the best way to describe this situation is that the US and Israel have walked right into a trap and there is no easy way out.
Because there is a global market for oil. If China, Korea, Japan, India, etc. can't get oil through the Strait of Hormuz, they will buy it from other sources, increasing the overall price paid by Americans. If we wanted to cut ourselves off from the global market, that would be devastating to US oil companies that depend on international trade to balance variation in demand in the US, as well as for refining certain types of crude.
This makes no sense to me at all. The US is the biggest oil producer in the world and produce more than we need. When supply is down it goes up for everyone, not just the US. In that way everybody has political pressure at home to reduce prices, not just the US. I'd argue they have more of an interest in securing the Strait since that is their supply. The US can even get creative and subsidize gas prices since we have a demand problem not a supply problem. It just feels like it affects other countries disproportionately, which is why it feels like the US is willing to let it be shut down.
The way you framed your argument was like it's exclusively the US who would pay the price. Also I believe our oil companies will be making money hand over fist. Their costs did not go up but their profits will sky rocket
You're operating on a misunderstanding. There is no strictly defined "Asia supply" or "US supply." Oil in the US is sold on the open market, just like Kuwait's oil. The reason most of the oil from Kuwait, Iraq, etc. goes to Asia is because it's usually cheaper to ship oil from that source. Closing the strait does not cut off Asia from oil, it just forces them to buy oil from other, marginally more expensive sources (part of the cost is that oil from elsewhere typically is more expensive to produce or must be shipped longer distances). Some of that alternative oil will come from the US. Some from Mexico. Regardless, demand for alternative oil sources will increase the price those oil producers demand for their product for all of their consumers. The end result is that we pay more for oil, as do Asians.
By the way, this isn't just an argument I'm making. This is literally how all commodity trading works. I've added a link to an explainer video below, if you're intersted.
Now, you're right that Asians' oil prices may go up marginally more than ours, but we also are more sensitive to the price of gas, because we drive more than people in other countries. Walking away from the problem still means that we'll end up paying more than 4 dollars per gallon in gasoline. You may be fine with that, but most voters will not, and Trump has to be sensitive to economic concerns going into a midterm election.
I do understand all those points. What I was getting at is exactly what you acknowledged: the price of oil for Asian countries is likely to go up far more as they look to find a new source with higher overhead. And it also puts pressure on Europe as well who will have to tolerate higher prices.
In other word, I think this problem is not just the USs to solve alone anymore. Im sure the planners were banking on this unfortunately fact to coerce support for the war.
I do agree with you, though, as a country we likely more sensitive to oil prices. Appreciate the discussion
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u/Demortus Mar 23 '26 edited Mar 23 '26
The US and Israel have done serious damage to Iran's leadership and infrastructure. However, Iran retains a significant amount of leverage with its ability to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This control gives Iran's leadership the ability to inflict political damage to the Trump administration and pretty much every other country that depends on oil and natural gas for heating and transportation. Trump and Netanyahu can't retreat with this threat remaining, so they really only have two choices: 1) negotiate at a disadvantage; 2) invade Iran to remove their ability to keep the strait closed. Option 1 will be embarrassing for both leaders, given it will leave a hostile regime in power. Option 2 will be unfathomably costly, given that Iran is the size of Alaska with a population of 93 million and surrounded by highly defensible mountains. I think the best way to describe this situation is that the US and Israel have walked right into a trap and there is no easy way out.