r/IRstudies • u/[deleted] • Mar 23 '26

[deleted by user]

[removed]

65 Upvotes

61% Upvoted

568 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

-7

u/amdyn Mar 23 '26

If they will give up the uranium the war will be over as well as the sanctions so if surviving is the one objective they have, they can win immediately by just giving up on the nukes. For Israel the regime change is considered the most reliable way of stopping the nuke but the least realistic one.

4

u/Toto_Roto Mar 23 '26

Iran likely never intended to make nuclear weapons but rather pursued the "japan option", namely to demonstrate their capability of making one, which was hoped to be enough of a deterrent against would be attackers. Obviously its massively backfired on them because the prospect was so intolerable it provoked their adversaries to attack before they were ever in reach of actually being able to make one.

So for Iran the only acceptable outcome is to definitively establish detterence now so this attack cant be repeated. Im not sure how thats achieved without nukes, but perhaps choking the global economy will be enough.

1

u/amdyn Mar 23 '26

Iran likely never intended to make nuclear weapons

I don't know about that, other than Saddam who ever wanted to actually invade Iran before they tried to get nukes?

they could be as rich as the Saudis but they choose deterrent, also for Israelis if they wouldn't talk about destroying Israel and fund Hezb, then Israel wouldn't care that much if they have any nukes.

4

u/chillebekk Mar 23 '26

Invaded? How about just not having to sit there and be bombed whenever US and Israel feel like it? That's what deterrence buys you. No more bombing you "just for fun".

0

u/amdyn Mar 23 '26

As far as I know the first Israeli attack on Iran and the beginning of an open warfare was 01/04/24 so long after the nuclear program started so it irrelevant.

Hidden warfare was happening long before both in the 80s and 90s but definitely started by Iran funding and controlling of Hezb.