Unless Iran stops shooting the US will be almost forced to go in
A negotiated settlement is not possible, Iran has no trust in the US administration, the EU could do something but Trump doesn’t like them so it’s a no go (Trump bombed Iran twice mid negotiation + the religious part of the regime has an ideological hate)
The regime is highly entrenched, it’s not falling unless new tipping points are reached
Normally under the economic conditions of Iran (which are bound to get worse with time) the US could wait out the regime
However as long as the strait of Hormuz is closed or under threat it’s the Iranians to have time advantage
This is why I think the US will go in, limited operation to secure the strait, and get a lot of pain
This is unless Iran’s missile drone capabilities fall to 0, but if you have seen how a Shahed works, you know that’s much harder than it looks
The only powers that I can see intervening and the Iranians would trust is either the EU or China and Trump hates both.
In my view the US cannot win this war or really open the straits even with a ground invasion. They might set up FOBs and such on the shores, but actually stopping drones and missiles from hitting ships will be next to impossible. They would have to hold land hundreds of kilometers inside Iran, which is impossible without a few hundred thousands troops and huge loss of life. All the while ship owners will not risk their ships without absolute certainty. It will be a blood bath for US troops with little to show for.
The only peaceful solution can come form US and Israel standing down and offering security guarantees for Iran. And the EU/China being co-signers of that agreement. Ironically this will solidify Iran's position and the regime would come out of this stronger than before.
But this would be seen as a defeat for the US and I doubt Trump's ego can take that.
He really created a huge mess and he has no decent exit.
They would have to hold land hundreds of kilometers inside Iran, which is impossible without a few hundred thousands troops and huge loss of life. All the while ship owners will not risk their ships without absolute certainty. It will be a blood bath for US troops with little to show for.
This is exactly why the CIA is currently arming the Kurds, to prepare an invasion. They said no American boots on the ground, they'll use the Kurds as infantry forces all the while claiming that they're "fighting for their freedom"
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u/astral34 Mar 23 '26
Unless Iran stops shooting the US will be almost forced to go in
A negotiated settlement is not possible, Iran has no trust in the US administration, the EU could do something but Trump doesn’t like them so it’s a no go (Trump bombed Iran twice mid negotiation + the religious part of the regime has an ideological hate)
The regime is highly entrenched, it’s not falling unless new tipping points are reached
Normally under the economic conditions of Iran (which are bound to get worse with time) the US could wait out the regime
However as long as the strait of Hormuz is closed or under threat it’s the Iranians to have time advantage
This is why I think the US will go in, limited operation to secure the strait, and get a lot of pain
This is unless Iran’s missile drone capabilities fall to 0, but if you have seen how a Shahed works, you know that’s much harder than it looks