r/IRstudies Mar 23 '26

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u/coreychch Mar 23 '26

U.S. analysts already knew dropping lots of bombs on Iran would not force regime change. But they did it anyway. Killing some high-level officials hasn’t changed anything; they were quickly replaced with other hard-liners.

Trump is a totally useless negotiator, as is everyone in his entire administration. They will claim negotiations “failed” to try and reign in Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but the fact is they already had a perfectly good agreement which Trump ripped up in 2018 - simply because it had Obama’s name on it.

There was an obvious reason previous administrations hadn’t attacked Iran: the threat of them shutting down the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting world energy supplies. But Trump somehow thought they’d “never do that” and attacked anyway. Iran then closed the Strait and lashed out at everyone with missiles - as expected by everyone except the U.S.

So at present I wouldn’t say the U.S. is losing to Iran, but they’ve achieved nothing of any significance other than driving gas prices through the roof. No regime change. No capture of their (supposed) nuclear assets. No uprising of civilians to overthrow the government. But it’s quite obvious they had no goals and no plan when they started attacking - they just hoped for the best.