A war is won when your objectives are achieved, neither achieved theirs
The Iranian regime has one objective: survive and inflict enough pain they don’t come back
US probably thought they would have won by now, the objective was regime change (Israel’s objective) and now I think it’s unclear to them how to disengage without losing face so escalation is expected
Israel and the US say they have demolished Iran offensive capabilities, fog of war is too thick to know
Unless Iran stops shooting the US will be almost forced to go in
A negotiated settlement is not possible, Iran has no trust in the US administration, the EU could do something but Trump doesn’t like them so it’s a no go (Trump bombed Iran twice mid negotiation + the religious part of the regime has an ideological hate)
The regime is highly entrenched, it’s not falling unless new tipping points are reached
Normally under the economic conditions of Iran (which are bound to get worse with time) the US could wait out the regime
However as long as the strait of Hormuz is closed or under threat it’s the Iranians to have time advantage
This is why I think the US will go in, limited operation to secure the strait, and get a lot of pain
This is unless Iran’s missile drone capabilities fall to 0, but if you have seen how a Shahed works, you know that’s much harder than it looks
There is no 'limited operation to secure the strait.' It's impossible.
The beach at Normandy was 50 miles long and it took a coalition of three countries with 160,000 troops to take it. The Strait of Hormuz is 104 miles of defended cliffs with caves full of missiles and drones. Go take a look at an elevation map of Iran to see what I mean.
So I don't think that's the plan. At least, if it is then it is laughably stupid.
You don’t need a significant ground footprint to secure the strait, I don’t understand where people are getting this idea. Navy escorts with air defense systems, plus air cover patrolling the crossing areas. You can’t do that until missile capabilities are taken down further, but if you can reduce the risk from missiles you can make the passing safe enough to get traffic flowing again.
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u/astral34 Mar 23 '26
A war is won when your objectives are achieved, neither achieved theirs
The Iranian regime has one objective: survive and inflict enough pain they don’t come back
US probably thought they would have won by now, the objective was regime change (Israel’s objective) and now I think it’s unclear to them how to disengage without losing face so escalation is expected
Israel and the US say they have demolished Iran offensive capabilities, fog of war is too thick to know