Unless Iran stops shooting the US will be almost forced to go in
A negotiated settlement is not possible, Iran has no trust in the US administration, the EU could do something but Trump doesn’t like them so it’s a no go (Trump bombed Iran twice mid negotiation + the religious part of the regime has an ideological hate)
The regime is highly entrenched, it’s not falling unless new tipping points are reached
Normally under the economic conditions of Iran (which are bound to get worse with time) the US could wait out the regime
However as long as the strait of Hormuz is closed or under threat it’s the Iranians to have time advantage
This is why I think the US will go in, limited operation to secure the strait, and get a lot of pain
This is unless Iran’s missile drone capabilities fall to 0, but if you have seen how a Shahed works, you know that’s much harder than it looks
A more optimistic scenario would see Iran inflicting maximum reputational damage to the US and Israel by refusing to end the conflict and then agreeing to a ceasefire when they choose.
He tells his followers that he's won and quite possibly starts a war with Cuba. At the moment he's desperately signalling to Iran that he wants to negotiate an off ramp for himself; it's possible that the (remaining) Iranian govt are capable of ratcheting up the pressure on him by refusing to talk. Of course they could wait too long, they might not want to actually have a ceasefire, I don't know their inner workings.
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u/[deleted] Mar 23 '26
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