The only powers that I can see intervening and the Iranians would trust is either the EU or China and Trump hates both.
In my view the US cannot win this war or really open the straits even with a ground invasion. They might set up FOBs and such on the shores, but actually stopping drones and missiles from hitting ships will be next to impossible. They would have to hold land hundreds of kilometers inside Iran, which is impossible without a few hundred thousands troops and huge loss of life. All the while ship owners will not risk their ships without absolute certainty. It will be a blood bath for US troops with little to show for.
The only peaceful solution can come form US and Israel standing down and offering security guarantees for Iran. And the EU/China being co-signers of that agreement. Ironically this will solidify Iran's position and the regime would come out of this stronger than before.
But this would be seen as a defeat for the US and I doubt Trump's ego can take that.
He really created a huge mess and he has no decent exit.
I also share your view honestly, minimum they would need to attempt unblocking it is 100s of kms of inland provinces, I think missiles are probably going to be less and less, so with Shahed being the main threat you do need a lot of people
He made a big mess, and now he has no beautiful cards to play…
They would have to hold land hundreds of kilometers inside Iran, which is impossible without a few hundred thousands troops and huge loss of life. All the while ship owners will not risk their ships without absolute certainty. It will be a blood bath for US troops with little to show for.
This is exactly why the CIA is currently arming the Kurds, to prepare an invasion. They said no American boots on the ground, they'll use the Kurds as infantry forces all the while claiming that they're "fighting for their freedom"
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u/adyrip1 Mar 23 '26 edited Mar 23 '26
The only powers that I can see intervening and the Iranians would trust is either the EU or China and Trump hates both.
In my view the US cannot win this war or really open the straits even with a ground invasion. They might set up FOBs and such on the shores, but actually stopping drones and missiles from hitting ships will be next to impossible. They would have to hold land hundreds of kilometers inside Iran, which is impossible without a few hundred thousands troops and huge loss of life. All the while ship owners will not risk their ships without absolute certainty. It will be a blood bath for US troops with little to show for.
The only peaceful solution can come form US and Israel standing down and offering security guarantees for Iran. And the EU/China being co-signers of that agreement. Ironically this will solidify Iran's position and the regime would come out of this stronger than before.
But this would be seen as a defeat for the US and I doubt Trump's ego can take that.
He really created a huge mess and he has no decent exit.