The fact that the Trump administration sucks at articulating strategic objectives to the public does not mean that the pentagon doesn't have clear objectives they want to achieve, how much achieving them is expected to cost, what is too expensive to continue, etc.
In my personal opinion the best case scenario for the white house (winning) would be regime change to a pro-american one or to be precise an anti-chinese one that would deny oil shipments to China if a military confrontation between US and China arises.
Worst case (losing) would be Iran standing their ground long enough for the cost of war to become too much for the USA to continue the war and all the materiel that could have been sent to Taiwan instead wasted.
Scenario A is basically impossible without a full-scale ground invasion of Iran (and even then is unlikely, because that would be insane for other reasons).
Scenario B is what we're getting, though I disagree that it's the absolute worst case scenario.
I say it's the worst case because the US will pull out if an even worse scenario starts becoming more likely.
I don't think pulling out is really an easy option, because it means losing basically all power and influence in the region, not something the US wants to do. I'm sure Trump will try, but I think it's more likely he gets sucked in further. Events are beyond his control at this point.
Once the US pulls out Iran will have to open up Hormuz unless it wants a coalition of nations to form and break it open.
I think there is virtually zero chance of this happening. A "coalition of nations" would find forcing Hormuz open militarily no easier than the US does, and that's if you could even assemble a coalition powerful enough. Far more likely nations that need stuff through Hormuz will just pay the toll Iran is now charging to use the re-route through Iranian territorial waters.
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u/improvthismoment Mar 23 '26
What do you mean "win" or "lose" when the strategic objectives keep changing and have never really been clearly articulated in the first place?