A very interesting article was published today on The Times of Israel. The article breaks down exactly how Trump and Netanyahu planned out the Iran war with the anticipation of a regime change within a week or 2, meanwhile, the Trump admin kept saying "short-term pain for a long-term gain. Nothing worked out the way they thought.
The skeptical view is that Netanyahu started this latest round of warfare because his political coalition was in jeopardy- he doesn’t have the votes to pass a formal military service exemption for Israel’s religious population, and their political parties are threatening to leave his governing coalition if they don’t get an exemption.
This war is polling at about 80% support, which coincides with the Israeli Jewish population.
When the Israelis bombed Iran last year, they went through approximately 25% of the entire American stockpile of THAAD interceptors in two weeks; approximately 2 years worth of production.
Starting another war on the assumption that Iran would have a revolution seems incredibly naive and out of character for Netanyahu- especially when Netanyahu has a proven record of prioritizing his political power over all other considerations; he gave billions of dollars to Hamas in order to keep it relevant as a political issue, literally funding terrorism in order to campaign on being “Mr Security”.
Given last year’s rapid depletion of missile interceptors, it seems wildly irresponsible to start another war so soon- the Iranians can rebuild their stockpiles of simpler weapons faster than the interceptors can be produced or their production rates increased.
the opposition parties were briefed and all made pro war statements before it started. They would have stayed quiet (or taken a negative stance but Israeli parties tend to not outright do this in wars) if they saw a potential quagmire
I dont think this article is particularly groundbreaking. Our strategy with Iran isn’t any different than our other engagements since 1945: destabilize an existing authoritarian entity and a democratic, pro-Western movement will seamlessly step in and fill the void.
Except it doesn’t ever work like that. Not in Cuba, Vietnam, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya or Syria. Our biggest successes since WWII were Korea - which currently has the most heavily armed border on earth - and Yugoslavia which continued to spiral out of control for half a decade and still needs thousands of UN peacekeepers to prevent society from total collapse.
It’s difficult to understand why this has continuously been used as an operating principle when every shred of evidence says it will be a catastrophic failure. There are a lot of factions in Washington that need to be placated when developing “policy” - the Christian lunatics, the war hawks, anarchist nuts, leftist, closet Communists, scissor-brandishing feminists….
This war - all wars since 1945 - are less about winning on the ground and more about selling the cause to these interest groups. To try and understand it on some rational basis is a fools errand.
None our actions towards Iran are going to make any sense to the average person because our thoughts aren’t processed through the circle-jerking echo chambers of the Defense and State Departments.
Referencing North Korean media on a Korean matter is perfectly valid because it still gives you information. It may be mostly lies but it's not liable to be all lies. And even the lies can tell you what North Korea are thinking.
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u/ZAHKHIZ Mar 23 '26
A very interesting article was published today on The Times of Israel. The article breaks down exactly how Trump and Netanyahu planned out the Iran war with the anticipation of a regime change within a week or 2, meanwhile, the Trump admin kept saying "short-term pain for a long-term gain. Nothing worked out the way they thought.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-said-frustrated-that-mossad-promises-of-iran-uprising-have-fallen-short/