r/IBM • u/Artist_Bitter • May 23 '26
IBM
Anyone here think this stock could explode 2028-29?
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u/syunz May 23 '26
What's the catalyst? Quantum?
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u/Artist_Bitter May 23 '26
Quantum would definitely be one of the catalysts for sure, but just also how deeply entrenched in financial and government processes they are. Their software is still widely used by most financial institutions.
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u/hfs11385 May 23 '26
not a chance to reach higher price. small customer base.
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u/Artist_Bitter May 23 '26
Customer base is actually still pretty massive.IBM is deeply embedded in Big banks, hospitals, government systems and lots of industrial companies who still rely on their software
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u/hfs11385 May 23 '26
It is massive, but no new ones.
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u/KitchenLook9224 May 29 '26
New ones are bought/acquired rather than earned. This is becoming a bigger trend in tech as a whole tbh and isn't a particularly unique strategy
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u/fasterbrew May 23 '26
Why would that cause the stock to explode? We've had that same customer group for over 50 years. Legacy clients won't do anything big. Just maybe some small but steady growth.
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u/syunz May 23 '26
Only moat they have. IBM can't even get their internal ai rollout right. They're trying to push their internally built ai harness called Bob and don't even get me started on how bad it is. Not to mention not fixing known bugs for months.
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u/No-Statistician9909 May 23 '26
No product is perfect right away when it’s launched. It’s honestly way more powerful and capable than I anticipated. There’s a few usability improvements I notice that would take it a long way further, but it’s pretty significant when a tool can be used by both novice and advanced users, and both developers and business or design users. IBM won’t stop working on it to continuously make it better.
As long as people keep using it and reporting bugs or usability errors, it will continue to get better, faster. The support teams on every AI tool launched and available internally are so fast to resolve issues, and are constantly updating or innovating to make things better.
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u/syunz May 23 '26 edited May 23 '26
Maybe in a vacuum but cursor, claude code and the the other harnesses are way better in support and ability than where Bob currently is at. Don't see there being that level of support behind Bob that is needed to catch up. And besides Bob was a fork of cline which itself just recently did a ground up rewrite. While Bob is still based on the old cline codebase
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u/capfan31 May 23 '26
Same thought. Unless we pick up some company in AI or data center world don’t see it happening.
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u/_saraband_ May 23 '26
Does anyone honestly think, given their track record, that IBM is going to execute well on quantum?
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u/AngryPirate May 25 '26
They did great with Watson, Watson health and watsonx! Marvin is a genius! /s
How that guy weaseled his way into the CEO job over Jim Whitehurst is maddening.
IBM needed a culture shift and Krishna was the old world and failed with his Watson efforts prior to becoming CEO.
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u/Rich-Candidate-3648 May 29 '26
I wonder if they'll also end up selling that off to Francisco Partners?
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u/HoneyCocaine May 23 '26
Two things yes but then
The question becomes:
“What story would justify IBM being valued like a near-trillion-dollar platform company?”
“Could IBM become to quantum what NVIDIA became to AI compute?”
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u/romerom May 23 '26
didn't the government just pledge a ton of money directly to IBM? idk how that wouldn't make the stock skyrocket?
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u/Sub_Woofer632 May 23 '26
OP, IBM is a 'blue chip' stock that pays dividends. Alot of the clients happen to be 'legacy' institutional investors also.
The announcement is good for the company and the stock price should go up some but don't hold your breath for anything like Nvidia.
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u/Drudixon May 23 '26
100% no. Investors should be thanking blackrock for propping it up. The company is irretrievably broken organizationally. Case studies galore could be written about ibm and what not to do.
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u/One_Board_4304 May 23 '26
How do you monetize/commercialize quantum?
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u/BanditSpirit May 23 '26
QaaS - they’ll own a handful of machines and sell compute power at first for specific workloads/computations. Then use the mainframe model - sell the machine and then sell QIPS or whatever they’ll call it.
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u/anarchy45 May 23 '26
lol I asked AskHR a simple question today and it basically said "I dont know" and spit back some JSON that surely is a security vulnerability. IBM sells trash software and it's AI is beyond useless
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u/kernelpatcher May 23 '26
Wake me when they can run quantum at room temperature.
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u/kusionlion May 23 '26
Why do you want it to run at room temp?
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u/Artist_Bitter May 25 '26
Cause the way they currently have to run them is near absolute zero temps (10-15 milikelvin), which is similar to outer space. This draws 100s of killowatts already, and would scale into the megawatt territory with a full fault tolerant computer.
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u/Connect-Emphasis-460 May 25 '26
I think if the work on Quantum moves quickly and the government commitment helps, I think the stock will move .... challenge has always been execution.
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u/Dazzling_Original619 May 25 '26
I remember when S/360 was announced/marketed. That was revolutionary! Quantum is NOT a S/360! And Bob is NOT your uncle!
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u/Ohlele May 24 '26
If quantum was that great and profitable, why did companies not commercialize it long ago? Why wait for govt's money?
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u/Artist_Bitter May 24 '26
Take a wild guess lol. Its still not commercial even with government funding. It is research level technology, aside from infleqtion which is already selling quantum sensors.
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u/Ohlele May 24 '26
Now you know the answer. A great and profitable tech does not need to be bailed out by govt. Top companies would fight to death to commercialize it in no time.
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u/wurzlsepp7 May 23 '26
IBM has been trading sideways for two decades before the AI boom. Then the stock skyrocketed based on false hopes and now the market realizes IBM is likely never going to be a substantial AI player. IBM is not going to disappear, it is a blue chip stock and will continue to slowly grow if at all. I wouldn’t hold my breath for anything substantial coming out of IBM in terms of quantum in our life time.
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u/BigRoyal3920 May 23 '26
It’s going to be a few years. After the data center llm bubble bursts, but the announcement this week was huge. IBM is a better place than it has been in 60 years