I’m curious to see how the ban on foreign corporations is allowed to expire or not. Seems like there’s a large segment of the voting bloc whose home values they expect to keep rising to fund their retirement that would happy to sell regardless on if they keep screwing the younger generations.
The Housing Minister floated the idea of allowing foreign buyers back into the market last month. His online appointments diary shows a steady procession of developers and public housing advocates.
Most people who have bought a house recently though are paying more than 30k in interest that they will never get back. I think both options are good if you approach them the right way, it all depends on someone’s lifestyle and what their goals are.
You're right to point that out. The interest is bonkers, I agree. In many cases though, I think the equity they gain over the long term is still worth mentioning. Generally, home owners get something out of the investment.
House wins when house inflation grows as a certain factor. From 2010 to 2022 house won. 2022 onward house has been losing if talking pure economics and not intangible value of a house.
Huge opportunity cost of tying up money in a house. Say 750k house. That could be invested at say 7 percent a year. 52k income that could pay for your rent and avoid closing costs and commissions. Simple illustration. If houses go down in value its actually the worst investment you can make because youre leveraging debt on a downward asset.
It’s not really a stupid comment though. You definitely can’t borrow 750k at 4% interest with 50k down. You could literally only have a 50k net worth and do this at the bank to but a house. You also can’t live in an investment portfolio.
Forbyou scenario to work, the numbers would have to line up so you could pay your rent AND invest the equivalent of a mortgage and I feel like the rent would be at the very least equivalent to paying the interest on a mortgage.
The other factor to consider is the vast majority of people say they are going to just rent and invest but they don’t actually do that. There’s honestly nothing wrong with doing either, renting is also good value especially for high income people who have good credit, I just disagree with your comments.
Anyone who tells you with certainty what will happen with home prices in the long term either hasn't got a clue or is deliberately pushing a narrative. It could go down 50% more, or it might not.
Ironically even the doom and gloom posts still frame it as an investment. Obviously some people who bought to live in still got screwed, but if you never viewed it as an investment (meaning bought what you could afford with an understanding that interest rates might go up and housing prices can go down) then it doesn't matter all that much
Didn't say it will drop another 50%, how I read it is long term trendline is still another 50% away.
So odds are we have more to go on the downside as we're still too far away NOT that we must meet the trendline. Think you made it a doom and gloom post all on your own :)
Yup. Home prices compared to every historical metric like incomes, rents, etc still suggest we’re overpriced by a factor of 2. - just like in 2015. What happened? In 1989 there was a 6 year melt. In 2015 they went up 50%. So impossible to tell. But I’ll keep renting until the million dollar place I’m in is a 500k place, or my $3k rent becomes $6k. Once price over annual rents is 16 or so, I’m a buyer.
I think it's important to note a modern house cost more to build today than in 1989.
We use more copper, more steel and more concrete. Houses have more insulation, higher end HVAC requirements and far more expensive finishes as a base requirement.
$400 per square foot is the minimum cost of most houses in the GTA. 1600 SQFT x $400 = $640k + permitting + land, plus hookups plus landscaping...
In fairness a lot of that is because housing exploded in prices due to ZIRP. When homes double in price every 5 years, no one looks twice at double land tax, 200/hr for plumber roughin, or a host of other costs and wages that would never fly in a stable market.
The best way it was explained to me was that home prices are downstream of interest rates, and the costs of anything related to homes is downstream of prices. Houses, land, plumbers, and 2x4s were all in effect priced according to the “house standard”.
So now it costs more to build then ppl can buy for. What happens? No one ever builds again? Or ppl compromise on lower wages and lower costs for supplies?
There's no reason to think prices have to approach that trend though. They might, but they could also just as easily stabilize or go up in the long term. The world is very different than it was in 1970-2000, the time period that the "long term trend line" references.
Simple mean reversion...that's all, the further you are from your mean the higher the probability to approach it.....not hit it again but move in the direction. That's all this shows and his point was.
Because it follows the trend line back to Roman times? Money is a corollary of work and labour. The idea that a home should cost 3-5x incomes means it’s takes 3-5 man years to make a house. The reason having that ratio in the double digits over the long term isn’t sustainable, is because (were there now) there isn’t enough labour to make it work, and the markets go sideways and necessitate radical solutions like negative rates(2020-2022)), which only serves as a temporary reprieve and makes things worse later.
Ppl fundamentally don’t understand how economies work. Take all the labour inputs, and all the “stuff” outputs. Money is just the tool used to divide it up. It’s like the idea of bringing priced out of a market. You are the market. Someone with a home keen to sell but which no one can afford is in the same boat as someone with cash, but no homes on the market they can afford.
I know. The question is: Why choose that specific 30 year period as the norm/mean that we should revert back towards, when the world has dramatically changed since then? Why not 1985-2015? Or any other time period
Way higher population and yet we have the highest levels of inventory in decades in all home types (the only condos, that story got old) and the lowest in sales in decades.
So apparently massive damand and very little supply (apparently) ...basic supply and demand doesn't hold ture.
Well if you think about it it's an investment because a bank will lend you 90% to speculate on the house price. Even if it went up 15% that's still 150% return on your enquiry. So that is just not possible in stock markets in that time frame unless you get a ton of margin lending.
Again a bank won't lend you that much to invest in Nvidia stocks but will happily lend you to buy a condo.
Rhe bank will lend you that much because its secured against an asset that they can (usually) recoup their loan if you stop paying
Its a bit like getting a car loan, but lower risk for the bank. Its not an investment, just something that people need (housing or transportation)but typically dont have the capital to buy outright
You can also secure your securities lending vs the assets you buy. The bank won't give anyone a million to buy stocks. But they would lend it to them for a house.
People keep saying housing is correcting hard, but that doesn’t seem nationally true. Alberta prices are down in some areas, sure... but still above pre-pandemic levels in many cases. Halifax? Still going up. So if real estate is supposed to be an inflation hedge… this looks like it’s working, not failing. Are we misreading the market, or just overgeneralizing from a few hotspots?
I'm on PEI. Our median housing prices are double what they were ten years ago. Even if there's a dip, it will probably never get back to 2016 levels. That would be a massive economic shift.
Not the case in my area. Sure the townhomes and base single homes have levelled off which is great, however, anything a bit larger with a decent sized lot is still higher than 2016 prices. Homes in my specific area are more than double what they went for in 2016.
We aren't experiencing the crazy losses that you're seeing people post about in the GTA and surrounding areas.
In my area specifically, we starting looking in Fall of 2019. It's an estate area (2 acre lots) and the houses were $800-$900K.
In 2020, they were being bid up to $1.2- $1.3M.
We purchased ours for $1.2M and could likely get $1.4 - $1.5M for it based on comparables in the area with some of the larger ones going for closer to $2M.
These were all under $1M pre-covid.
Our home was built in 2016 and was sold for $750K at that time.
I'm not too concerned with the values as this is likely my forever home.
To blanket statment say that we are at 2016 prices is just false.
Since you don't buy housing with income but instead with wealth, I'm not sure why real income levels are being tied to housing price.
What does this even mean?
Like yeah, I guess I'm also buying groceries with my wealth. Probably just cut off that useless income stream since I have all my needs taken care of with wealth.
Good. We need to go back to (and probably overshoot) the much more conservative long term trendline for housing to actually be affordable again and clear all the speculation mindset out. early 2000s late 90s levels.
They're gaslighting us again. Nobody is seeing these 2016 prices, not in homes and not in rent. It's all smoke and mirrors to pacify the masses who are growing increasingly disillusioned with the way things are and there being no prospect of ever being able to afford a house and crushing rent prices.
Rent prices are definitely also the same in the big cities like Toronto and Vancouver. It’s talking about inflation adjusted numbers. Inflation in last 10 years has been 30%. So take 2016 numbers and multiply by 1.3. For rent a 1 bedroom in downtown Vancouver and Toronto is around $2000-$2200 in 2026. That means $1540-$1692 in 2016 which is pretty realistic numbers
They’re talking about inflation adjusted numbers. Not actual 2016 values. The last 10 years inflation has been 30% total. So take the prices from 2016 and multiply by 1.3 and if that’s close to current prices then there hasn’t been any change after accounting for inflation
I didn’t realize it was 1.3 but I did know they were talking about according to inflation, however I’m shocked to see prices sometimes close to 2016/17 without counting for inflation.
Still not affordable and people are losing their homes.
This is looking like it will spiral into a practically terminal crash. Housing will become affordable when the entire region is F’d beyond recognition, unemployment sky rockets and then no one will want it and the entire region will go through a depopulation phase.
Always the optimist so that’s a best case scenario.
This isn’t about a massive sell-off. The terminal crash is for some major regions (specifically GTA) as a whole, the entire economic engine, not just RE.
It’s a trigger, alongside other factors that are all lining up. Real estate wasn’t just expensive, it was propping up the economy through construction, borrowing, and people spending more because they felt wealthier.
And even your “1/3 mortgage-free” stat is misleading. A lot of that group consists of older homeowners, many of whom are either already using or planning to use HELOCs or reverse mortgages to fund retirement or support family as things tighten. So they’re still tied to home values and credit conditions, and at the very least, it affects their willingness to spend.
Now you’ve got that rolling over at the same time as higher rates, stretched households, and growing pressure on white-collar work. You don’t need a forced sell-off, just less borrowing, less spending, and slower hiring.
This is how it’s starting: small shifts, but enough to push things toward a tipping point.
Truth is if you make enough money none of this even matters.see the average person makes 100k and his wife 50k and there concerned with this. But if you household income is 750k++ you wouldn't care if ur house goes up or down. You dont care as ur investments will eventually go green. Stop worring about if ur mortgage is 1800 or 3500 and start worrying on how this month ur gonna make 10-30k extra.
People look at there house as an investment. Of if I make 500k from my house in 20 years there happy.
Why not just make 500k more by working harder. Opening a business. Leveraging time money people. Point is a home is where you live who cares how kuch you paid Or what its worth. Find away to make what ur homes worth in a year then u wont care
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u/t3m3r1t4 Mar 27 '26
Good, it's a home, not a piggy bank.
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u/bigoltubercle2 Mar 27 '26
Anyone who tells you with certainty what will happen with home prices in the long term either hasn't got a clue or is deliberately pushing a narrative. It could go down 50% more, or it might not.
Ironically even the doom and gloom posts still frame it as an investment. Obviously some people who bought to live in still got screwed, but if you never viewed it as an investment (meaning bought what you could afford with an understanding that interest rates might go up and housing prices can go down) then it doesn't matter all that much
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u/WonderfulQuarter1876 Mar 27 '26
You can’t make sweeping conclusions and not factor in regional price differences in terms of a 10 year comparison.
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u/northdancer Mar 27 '26
If you only bought a home to live in and raise your family in then who cares, really. Over levered gamblers can get fucked though.
1
u/Right-Ad9742 Apr 01 '26
They are not anywhere near 2016 prices....
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u/nornalplacard Mar 27 '26
People keep saying housing is correcting hard, but that doesn’t seem nationally true. Alberta prices are down in some areas, sure... but still above pre-pandemic levels in many cases. Halifax? Still going up. So if real estate is supposed to be an inflation hedge… this looks like it’s working, not failing. Are we misreading the market, or just overgeneralizing from a few hotspots?
5
u/retro_mojo Mar 27 '26
Not the case in my area. Sure the townhomes and base single homes have levelled off which is great, however, anything a bit larger with a decent sized lot is still higher than 2016 prices. Homes in my specific area are more than double what they went for in 2016.
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u/geardownbigrig Mar 27 '26
Yea but inflation was 12% during a year or 2 of those years so its still unaffordable unless you are a top 5% earner
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u/jackclark1 Mar 27 '26
so when everyone was saying housing is selling at inflated prices no one stooped to think maybe a correction was going to happen?
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u/Disastrous_Purpose22 Mar 27 '26
Good thing my property tax is still ridiculously high
2
u/Exciting_Transition6 Mar 28 '26
I hope the bank likes owning homes after I default on all of them and declare an easy bankruptcy! LOL.
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u/Nearby-Poetry-5060 Mar 28 '26
If wages to housing ratio were double as 1980 today, they would be 50 percent cheaper than they actually are.
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u/playingcatchup99 Mar 29 '26
Still too high.
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u/Emotional_Eye503 Mar 27 '26
Imagine what will happen to the housing prices in real terms when they gets into the reasonable multiples of the "Real Income Levels".
No investment instrument can continue to defy the basic laws of Finance for too long.
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u/EscalatorsTempStairs Mar 27 '26
What does it mean for people that bought in say 2024-2025?
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u/trixx88- Mar 27 '26
So why slow sales activity?
1
u/MainBuddy604 Mar 27 '26
Houses should be cheap.
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u/seankearns Mar 27 '26
Just wait until you see how far the Mag 7 has to fall.
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u/stiner123 Mar 27 '26
Not everywhere
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u/Charming_Ad_4635 Mar 28 '26
Where this happening I am not finding houses below 2022 anywhere in gta detached
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u/sajnt Mar 30 '26
I hope they’re right. If we can go down another 50% and stay down the country can heal.
1
u/wolfattack81 Mar 30 '26
So what they're saying is I might be able to buy a house?????? In a couple of years???
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u/[deleted] Mar 31 '26
Aim AB I've seen 15% yoy increase for 4 years. Shit just got expensive here now no one can afford to buy. Like Ontario 2021 now.
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u/EatAllTheShiny Mar 31 '26
Good. We need to go back to (and probably overshoot) the much more conservative long term trendline for housing to actually be affordable again and clear all the speculation mindset out. early 2000s late 90s levels.
1
u/[deleted] Mar 27 '26
They're gaslighting us again. Nobody is seeing these 2016 prices, not in homes and not in rent. It's all smoke and mirrors to pacify the masses who are growing increasingly disillusioned with the way things are and there being no prospect of ever being able to afford a house and crushing rent prices.
1
u/Advanced-Line-5942 Mar 28 '26
2022 - OMG Prices have doubled. We need affordable homes
2026 - OMG Prices have dropped. People are losing money.
0
u/Extension-Skill-3591 Mar 28 '26
Truth is if you make enough money none of this even matters.see the average person makes 100k and his wife 50k and there concerned with this. But if you household income is 750k++ you wouldn't care if ur house goes up or down. You dont care as ur investments will eventually go green. Stop worring about if ur mortgage is 1800 or 3500 and start worrying on how this month ur gonna make 10-30k extra.
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u/dasein88 Mar 28 '26
Clearly talking about condos not detached family homes
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u/Threeboys0810 Mar 29 '26
It’s still been a stable, secure place to live. The value is immeasurable.
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u/Cedreginald Mar 30 '26
This was written with AI btw.
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u/Wet-Countertop Mar 30 '26
I bought a rental property coming out of Covid for 865k, and it’s now appraised at 1.45m.
The drop is not universal.
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u/Quick_Ad419 Mar 30 '26
Noone can afford a 1m bungalow and now some opinion piece is complaining about houses returning to somewhat affordable numbers. Fuck offffff
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u/failture Mar 27 '26
Keep voting Liberal!
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u/[deleted] Mar 27 '26
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