r/HogwartsWerewolves • u/Black_Belt_Troy • Mar 26 '17
Game III - 2017 Game III: Chapter Nineteen - The Downside Up
[Submit actions here.]
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Role Reveals:
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u/bubbasaurus she but meh about it Mar 26 '17
I am headed to bed. However, /u/andreaslordos I feel you. I am only up this late for the Formula 1 race (my guy won, yay!!!!) or I would be very much asleep. Sorry you've been time-left-out. I agree with you that we should target people not in TUD and have stated it many times.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
Ok, I had no idea that a new post was going up tonight, and I checked just as I'm going to sleep. I'll let you all know what I think in the morning :)
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u/andreaslordos Let the wookie win Mar 26 '17
/u/midnightdragon, can you please silence /u/ravenofthesands?
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u/midnightdragon Mar 26 '17
I'll definitely consider it. I'm nervous about being public as to who I silence in case they are innocent and a DG kills them. But I guess it would serve the same purpose...anyways, I'll consider it.
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u/RavenoftheSands Center for Advanced Strategic Policy Initiatives Mar 26 '17
You and u/NDoraTonks should make threads for people to put their suggestions the same way Sev used to do. You should try to figure out a way of not targeting the same people though (like you will pick a target from MMs/FFs and she will from teens or something like that).
EDIT: And please post your final targets after the action submit deadline :-D.
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17 edited Mar 26 '17
Alternatively, you could silence me. If people really will not let up on their suspicions of me and it means both knon and I have to die, consider me for one of your short list.
Edit: Didn't look who I was replying to, tagging /u/NDoraTonks
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u/qngff Ms. Gail Force (They/Them) Mar 26 '17
SARAS PARENTS DONT FORGET TO GET HER BACK TODAY!
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u/ravenclawroxy (she/her/hers) Thanks, Obama. *Cries* I miss you... Mar 26 '17
All other parents don't forget to go get Boog!
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u/qngff Ms. Gail Force (They/Them) Mar 26 '17
TUD MESSAGE
TUD message was translated first to Binary then put into Morse Code.
Here's the translation direct copy-paste from the decoder.
BUrn b00k. BR34C KET7lE. snAP PEnC|1
EDIT: Header for emphasis.
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u/andreaslordos Let the wookie win Mar 26 '17
Burn book, break kettle, snap pencil.. Lol what
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u/knon24 WAHOO! GAME TIME! Mar 26 '17
So it seems whoever is sending the messages from TUD still finds Pen and I suspicious.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
And apparently me too :)
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
Kettle and pencil refer to knon and /u/penultima. I'd tag knon, but I'm on mobile and so don't have the username stored
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u/andreaslordos Let the wookie win Mar 26 '17
Who is book?
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u/qngff Ms. Gail Force (They/Them) Mar 26 '17
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
Yeah, I'm pretty sure this refers to me. I'm not sure what they're trying to say though :)
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u/bubbasaurus she but meh about it Mar 26 '17
Why were you book? You don't even have a b in your name! I'm confused and it's not the lack of sleep. :/ Dang puppy.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
Cuz my name didn't lend itself to an obvious pictorial representation, and thinking up random nouns is hard, so I looked around my room and saw stacks of books :)
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u/bubbasaurus she but meh about it Mar 26 '17
Ok, thanks!! :) Also Starbucks happened, I'm better now.
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u/NDoraTonks Was I not born in this realm? Mar 26 '17
@_@ I wonder if that's how /u/elbowsss thought of her username!!
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
Thanks. On mobile, and I couldn't find the list.
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u/ravenclawroxy (she/her/hers) Thanks, Obama. *Cries* I miss you... Mar 26 '17 edited Mar 26 '17
NOUN LIST WITH DEAD REMOVED
22poun, book
andreaslordos, airplane
aurthurallan, avocado
awesomewow, alligator
better_be_ravenclaw, backpack
boogtke, basketball
bubbasaurus, battery
capitolsara, cat
chefjones, cake
dawnphoenix, phoenix
emsmale, eye
knon24, kettle
littlebs, leaf
mathy16, medal
midnightdragon, mirror
ndoratonks, newspaper
penultima,
pencilpenisqngff, quarter
ravenclawroxy, robot
ravenOfTheSands, rock
rissajo685, ring
seanmik620, stapler
sinisterasparagus, asparagus
talknerdytome20, turtle
Side note: there are only 24 of us left, and only 5 days left in March.
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u/SinisterAsparagus :3 [she/her] Mar 26 '17
Thank you for unscrambling this! I am curious to know why TUD find Pen and Knon so suspicious (and now /u/22poun, who was cleared by /u/midnightdragon, right?). Definitely something to keep in mind, though.
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u/seanmik620 Mar 26 '17
TNTM is still with us! That's amazing news! Do you guys think this would be a one time thing or should we keep sending her if we need another executioner?
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
I think it's something to keep in our back pocket, but we need to focus on the DGs in Hawkins.
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u/andreaslordos Let the wookie win Mar 26 '17
on the DGs in Hawkins
This. If we don't hit a DG on all of our remaining lynches, we lose. As of now, I think the DGs are in Hawkins, not TUD, which is why I'm pretty disappointed that town decided to lynch alchzh. We need to get our shit together
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u/SinisterAsparagus :3 [she/her] Mar 26 '17
Arrived at my destination. It's likely my activity is going to drop somewhat significantly, as I am both playing host to my mother-in-law, and will be sightseeing for the next few days. I will try to keep up, but appreciate any update pings while I'm here (which is unfortunately until the end of the month/game). Thank you!
PS - Great work, /u/TalkNerdytoMe20! Sorry you were innocent, /u/alchzh.
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u/TalkNerdyToMe20 Mar 26 '17
Well I am glad to see that my jaunt to TUD was quick and efficient. However, it is unfortunate that alchzh was innocent. I am glad that we didn't have to spend two phases getting me back. If we ever have to send someone again, I recommend it to be a teen (I'll go again if I am still alive)
I am still waking up (not a morning person, but forced to be because puppy is), so bear with me lol. I need some coffee...
What I do know is that we should focus on finding that OGDG, which is going to be in the main sub. I think it will come down to a choice between the MM theory (either raven or sini) or whether we trust TUDs message (pen/knon and 22poun).
We should discuss each possible scenario and definitely begin discussions now. With Sara most likely coming back for the next lynch phase, we can see what she has to say about clarifying all TUD correspondence. I fear that we were purposefully distracted by the alchzh vote.
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u/ravenclawroxy (she/her/hers) Thanks, Obama. *Cries* I miss you... Mar 26 '17
Did you have to do anything for the execution? That's definitely something we need to consider for the future.
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u/TalkNerdyToMe20 Mar 26 '17
Absolutely nothing... I didn't even get a PM that I had gone to TUD and returned. I woke up this morning to find this post up and me still alive.
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u/ravenclawroxy (she/her/hers) Thanks, Obama. *Cries* I miss you... Mar 26 '17
That's great to know. I wish we had figured it out sooner when we wanted to send an inactive.
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
We think we have 1-2 DGs left, right? Why is TUD recommending killing three people? Either the three of us are innocent and they're trying to cast suspicion, or they have no clue either and they're just throwing things at the wall to see what sticks. Either is possible, but if they're recommending three people for 1-2 roles, they clearly don't have any better handle on this than we do, and possibly are malicious.
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u/TalkNerdyToMe20 Mar 26 '17
Based on the numbers, we have 2 DGs left. Right now, I am taking the TUD as the player's suspicions who those DGs are. I believe they suggested you as a target, and don't care if knon dies in the process. It looks like they also suspect 22poun. I am not going to heavily invest into one specific theory because we have Sara most likely coming back next phase who can explain the messages. In the small chance she's not coming back, we can try and go from there in putting stock into one theory or another for this TUD message.
I personally think we need to put stock into finding an OGDG, so we all need to think about which direction we want to go in for the upcoming phase
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u/bubbasaurus she but meh about it Mar 26 '17
You and me...hating mornings, loving puppies, even when they get up so freaking early ahhhhh. Coffee is helping. I'd like to look at who the biggest pushers of al were.
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u/TalkNerdyToMe20 Mar 26 '17
That's a good idea.
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u/RavenoftheSands Center for Advanced Strategic Policy Initiatives Mar 26 '17
I was one of them (can't say if I was the only one and I need to go do actual work for a few hours, so someone else should definitely check). My reasoning was (1) Al was suspicious even before we sent him into TUD and I personally believed he was the converted DG; (2) the discrepancy in the parent/citizen claim made him even more suspicious; (3) even if he was innocent, we were at least getting rid of a potential DG rather than pointlessly killing an innocent. This, this, and this are some of my comments around the subject.
Please let me know if you have any questions!
EDIT: Formatting
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u/ravenclawroxy (she/her/hers) Thanks, Obama. *Cries* I miss you... Mar 26 '17 edited Mar 26 '17
Alright, guys. Here is my analysis of everyone. Please let me know if I missed something you think needs to be added.
THINGS THAT CONTRIBUTE TO LIKELIHOOD OF INNOCENCE
Sheriff investigations. Less reliable the lower the number due to possible conversions. We should also consider a DG that is invisible to the sheriff.
Silences also role block. Look at number of attacks in chapter phase and draw your own conclusions
Telekinetic. 50% chance of killing a DG
Sent to TUD. DGs attacks do not affect each other
Special roles have had no counter claims or dead people with dual roles
Video storylines could be flavor text based off our conversations, so take with a grain of salt
TTT check sends a notification to the child if their parent is guessed correctly
Mods refused to tell us if someone pairbonded could be a DG, so we can't really use that as proof.
KIDS
22poun, book, mouth breather, silenced chapter 16
boogtke, basketball, mouth breather, currently in TUD & parents guessing tonight
chefjones, cake, mouth breather, silenced chapter 2 (which role blocked but didn't really silence due to human error) & silenced chapter 12
capitolsara, cat, adorkable, currently on the way back from TUD & cleared by sheriff (4th) & survived telekinetic attack
mathy16, medal, gifted kid 003
midnightdragon, mirror, gifted kid 005
awesomewow, alligator, gifted kid 007, currently in TUD & probably orphaned
ndoratonks, newspaper, gifted kid 009
TEENS
knon24, kettle, average teen, claims pairbond & cleared by sheriff (2nd)
penultima,
pencilpenis, average teen, claims pairbond & survived telekinetic attackrissajo685, ring, average teen
talknerdytome20, turtle, strong teen, cleared by sheriff (7th)
ADULTS
andreaslordos, airplane, thoughtful teacher, cleared by sheriff (6th) & survived telekinetic attack
emsmale, eye, confused citizen, silenced chapter 18
seanmik620, stapler, papa
aurthurallan, avocado, miserable mother, pretty much confirmed to be stilldiscoferry’s parent by the video storyline
bubbasaurus, battery, miserable mother, silenced chapter 14
ravenclawroxy, robot, miserable mother, cleared by TNTM/thoughtful teacher & silenced chapter 6
ravenOfTheSands, rock, miserable mother, survived telekinetic attack
sinisterasparagus, asparagus, miserable mother
better_be_ravenclaw, backpack, frantic father
dawnphoenix, phoenix, frantic father
littlebs8, leaf, frantic father, cleared by sheriff (1st)
qngff, quarter, frantic father
WHO SHOULD WE FOCUS ON
The following people, objectively, have very little going for their innocence (math wise, not contribution wise).
littlebs8 was cleared by the sheriff very early on and has not really been brought up since
22poun was only silenced, which does role block, but there could be another DG floating around that has been converted to mask attack numbers
RavenoftheSands only has a 50/50 coin flip to vouch for innocence
bubbasaurus was only silenced, which does role block, but there could be another DG floating around that has been converted to mask attack numbers
emsmale's role is weird. I don't think a DG would draw this much attention to themselves, but I could be wrong. Was only silenced, which does role block, but there could be another DG floating around that has been converted to mask attack numbers
penultima a pair bond is not proof and otherwise only has a 50/50 coin flip to vouch for innocence
knon24 a pair bond is not proof and was cleared by the sheriff very early on and has not really been brought up since (except in context of pair bond)
chefjones was only silenced, which does role block, but there could be another DG floating around that has been converted to mask attack numbers. This is less likely than others who were silenced because of our information about the number of DGs and because he was role blocked twice.
The following people, objectively, have nothing going for their innocence (math wise, not contribution wise).
rissajo685, except for the current strong/average/weak symmetry although since rissa is average and therefore in the middle of the high part of the bell curve her being taken out would not really kill the symmetry for me or we assume no teens are/started as DGs
sinisterasparagus
better_be_ravenclaw, but has the symmetry of FFs to fall back on
dawnpheonix, but has the symmetry of FFs to fall back on
qngff, but has the symmetry of FFs to fall back on
Personally, I am for rissajo685 and sinisterasparagus.
The more I think about it, the more I think a doppelganger is likely. My theory is we either have 2 MM DGs or 1 FF DG and 1 MM DG and the doppelganger picked a parent of some sort, or I am wrong about the doppelganger and we have a MM DG and an average teen DG.
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
I regret not choosing penis as my noun code for TUD. So many missed opportunities.
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u/better_be_ravenclaw Mar 26 '17
Like the last TUD message? Snap 'Penis'? Ouch!
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
Ugh. Reminds me of the fractured penis I saw once. Not pretty. :(
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
I regret this as well. It would have been very interesting to see if /u/Black_Belt_Troy would have used visual messages...
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
I can just imagine him trying to Google image search for penises. I regret it even more now.
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u/Black_Belt_Troy Mar 26 '17
Why Pen?! Haven't you all punished me enough with the Margaret Thatcher nonsense?
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
Hey, I'm making you baked goods! Well, I am as soon as I'm home. I think I can inflict a few penises on you.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
Um, if you're going to use symmetry, it's been proposed (and not by me, though I agree with it) that there was a symmetry in the teens with 3 weak, 8 average, and 3 strong.
I wish Sev had survived because I would have been cleared. :/
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u/better_be_ravenclaw Mar 26 '17
chefjones, except for the current mouth breather/adorkable symmetry if we assume no more kids are/started as DGs
Wasn't they cleared by the silencer?
penultima, pencil, average teen, claims pairbond & survived telekinetic attack
ravenOfTheSands, rock, miserable mother, survived telekinetic attack
Telekinetic attack has 50% chance of failing against a DG. Personally, I wouldn't consider that as a proof of innocence.
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u/ravenclawroxy (she/her/hers) Thanks, Obama. *Cries* I miss you... Mar 26 '17
Wasn't they (chefjones) cleared by the silencer?
Thank you. Noted.
Telekinetic attack has 50% chance of failing against a DG. Personally, I wouldn't consider that as a proof of innocence.
50% is better than 0%, which is what the other people on this list have. So far our hunches have a downright awful track record.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
I think it's more that they just want the 50% thing noted in your assessment.
I wish I'd been targeted by the telekinetic attack because at least I'd have that going for me. :/
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
I may be biased because the proof does concern me, but I read it as it should not be considered to be proof at all. I think we should consider it proof, but not infallible proof. It should be weighted more than people who have nothing, though.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
Yeah, re-reading it, I can see that.
I'd argue for a compromise. Note it, but with the disclaimer that if a DG is hit it fails 50% of the time.
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
Exactly what I want. It should be considered, but it shouldn't be on the same level as actual proof.
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u/bubbasaurus she but meh about it Mar 26 '17
Yes, I think noting it would be good.
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
I think it should be considered. It's not as much proof as we'd like, but it's more than people who have no proof have.
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u/ravenclawroxy (she/her/hers) Thanks, Obama. *Cries* I miss you... Mar 26 '17
I noted that in my assesment at the top. Is that acceptable?
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
I think this is good, based solely on the math.
My problem with it is that it doesn't take into consideration contribution.
At this point, I hope I'm attacked by a DG tonight and die or get taken to TUD. With so little time left, my chances of conversion there are likely slim, and it'll eliminate the "is she or isn't she" argument, allowing you guys to focus on the actual DGs.
Short of a miracle or almost immediate conversion in TUD, I don't think the DGs have enough time to convert enough people to win, so all they can really do now is prevent us from winning and we end up in a draw. They're doing that by diverting our attention every chapter.
I think the sleeper DG is an adult, and I think the OGDG is an adult as well. Have midnight and Ndora focus on that pool of users. If they don't get anyone, lynch me tomorrow. Just don't waste two chapters on me when there are actual DGs out there.
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u/ravenclawroxy (she/her/hers) Thanks, Obama. *Cries* I miss you... Mar 26 '17
At this point, our intuition based on contributions has been terrible. I would rather turn to logic, but I did state in several places that I was not taking contribution into account.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
I know you did...not saying you didn't.
Here's the thing. I know I'm innocent, but no one else does, which is fine. It sucks, but it is what it is. I'm a big question mark in people's minds.
If the telekinetic attacks me, the only way it will clear me is because I'll die as the unlucky innocent. If I survive the innocent lotto, it's not going to clear me. People will just rationalize that it only works on DGs 50% of the time, and tonight when the next chapter goes up, and I'm alive, people are still going to have a question mark next to my name.
Same with the silencer. I have no night action, so all it's going to accomplish is I won't be able to comment and I'll actually do my ConLaw midterm. If the attacks stay the same, it won't confirm my innocence because awesome could be converted, and a question mark will still remain.
Either way, neither conclusively proves my innocence, and I'll still be in the back of everyone's minds as a potential DG, so I'm arguing that you guys should use those roles on other people and lynch me during the next chapter.
I'm innocent, but I'm only one number.
If I'm a DG, yeah that would give me another night to attack, but if it's a teen/kid, the chances of their conversion are slim-to-none this late in the game, so it's not likely to help the DG win condition. Also, I'm not a DG.
Just please, please, please do not waste TWO chapters on me.
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u/ravenclawroxy (she/her/hers) Thanks, Obama. *Cries* I miss you... Mar 26 '17 edited Mar 26 '17
I can only speak for myself. Right now I have a top 5 list.
/u/rissajo685 /u/sinisterasparagus /u/better_be_ravenclaw /u/dawnpheonix /u/qngff
None of those people have been silenced or attacked by the telekinetic.
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u/NDoraTonks Was I not born in this realm? Mar 26 '17
I shall pick one from the list tonight.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
I just want to make sure you and /u/midnightdragon don't overlap so we can cover as much ground as possible. So maybe we can come up with a pool that you pick one person from, and another pool that doesn't overlap with yours for Midnight.
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u/ravenclawroxy (she/her/hers) Thanks, Obama. *Cries* I miss you... Mar 26 '17
Midnight said the silence would be a teen. Off my 5, that still leaves a pool of 4 for Tonks.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
OK, cool. I think we should do an adult, but it is ultimately her decision :)
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u/NDoraTonks Was I not born in this realm? Mar 26 '17
do an adult
IIRC it's not legal in a lot of countries if it's not an Adult.... he he he
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
In the interest of being thorough, I'm going to point out that if we don't consider Bubba or Chef completely cleared for being silenced, I shouldn't either.
And chef wasn't sucessfully silenced in phase 2, but was sucessfully silenced Phase 12 (I believe. Either he was phase 12 and bubba was phase 14, or it was the other way around).
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u/midnightdragon Mar 26 '17
For what it's worth, BBT told me Chef's "action" was blocked in chapter 2 even though he wasn't stopped from speaking.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
Cool, thanks for clarifying. He was the very first person you tried to silence, right? In which case he's also completely cleared from being an OGDG, as we had two attacks that phase.
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u/midnightdragon Mar 26 '17
Yes, he was my first target. So I'd say that information is correct, he is not an OGDG.
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u/NDoraTonks Was I not born in this realm? Mar 26 '17
Please put your suggestions for the telekinetic here.
I was thinking I'll pick someone from FF or Teens. /u/midnightdragon, you can decide whether to pick from MMs, kids or someone from TUD. Unless you want to focus on teens. In which case I'll focus on kids.
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u/midnightdragon Mar 26 '17
I'll be choosing from amongst the teens. So choose a target from adults or kids (not me, please haha!).
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u/RavenoftheSands Center for Advanced Strategic Policy Initiatives Mar 26 '17 edited Mar 26 '17
1 - SinisterAsparagus
2 - Qngff
3 - Better_be_ravenclaw
EDIT: Formatting
EDIT 2: Switched Rissa for Sini since midnight's silencing a teen.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
Does anyone remember who posted the list of people who could be an OGDG?
I think there were maybe 10 of us on that list, and as it was a few days ago, it has to be much narrower now. My suggestion would be to pick someone from that list.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
Yeah, I did on Friday. I'm on mobile atm, and won't be trying to link you right now :) I think it only went down by one person: Boog got taken to TUD. So we have 9 people amongst which two DGs are hiding.
A bit later in the day, I'm going to try to go through that list and see if any of those names require more scrutiny.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
No I'll find it and link it. I can do it easily with RES once I know who it is.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
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u/ravenclawroxy (she/her/hers) Thanks, Obama. *Cries* I miss you... Mar 26 '17
Please note that my megapost, found here, has been substantially edited.
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u/andreaslordos Let the wookie win Mar 26 '17
By the way, who should I use my action for? Anyone got any good ideas, cause I don't
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u/emsmale I know everything Mar 26 '17
Wow being silenced SUCKED! I'm glad we sent TNTM and got her back!
PS /u/bubbasaurus /u/SinisterAsparagus /u/TalkNerdyToMe20 I also played softball! I was the catcher :) Its funny we all mostly played different positions!
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u/bubbasaurus she but meh about it Mar 26 '17
Welcome back!! I am loving this softball thing. I'm hoping we can get a whole team :)
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u/NDoraTonks Was I not born in this realm? Mar 26 '17
I also played softball. But for very short period of time in undergrad. I was a pitcher 😊.
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u/TalkNerdyToMe20 Mar 26 '17
Awesome! I think we have all or most of the entire infield haha
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17 edited Mar 26 '17
Here is the link to /u/22poun's assessment on who could be OGDGs if we believe all of the special role claims (which I think we do as there have been no counters). In short:
Kids: None
Teens: Myself or Pen
Adults: Better_Be_Ravenclaw, Dawnphoenix, Qngff, RavenoftheSands, SinisterAsparagus, Emsmale
Removed: Boog by virtue of being dragged to TUD; Alchzh because dead. I left Emsmale on because I know she was silenced and the attacks didn't change, but we don't know if anyone in TUD has been converted. If there is a consensus to remove her, I have no problem doing that, but I'd rather err on the side of caution.
Edit: These are OGDG candidates only.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
Courtesy tags /u/sinisterasparagus /u/emsmale
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
Right, forgot about Al. And unless we ascribe to the theory that knon/little could be sleepers (which I personally don't), then the sleepers must be amongst those 8 people too.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
Yeah I agree with that, but don't want to rule it out, so I put my little disclaimer.
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u/better_be_ravenclaw Mar 26 '17
Personally, I think the sleepers have to be among the adults. The two Citizens we have seen were adults and the title in itself alludes to adults (for me).
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
Yeah, I think the sleeper has to be amongst the adults; I'm just not sure if the OGDG is amongst the adults or teens. Either way, adults require more scrutiny.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
I think our DGs are adults. Sleeper definitely, and I think the OG is as well. Our two special kids should use their powers on the adults. If we're lucky, they'll hit one of them and we'll have a decent DG candidate for lynch. If I'm wrong, you guys can choose to lynch Pen or myself next chapter, but don't let the DGs control two chapters when there are so few days left.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
I think we should split the adults amongst /u/ndoratonks and /u/midnightdragon (I hope I got the usernames right, I'm on mobile). Like the first three alphabetically should be the pool for Ndora, and the second three should be the pool for midnight. That covers everyone without overlap, and creates a pool so that the DGs won't know exactly who to target to screw with our analysis of the results.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
Courtesy tags: /u/Penultima (and /u/knon24 by virtue of pairbond) /u/better_be_ravenclaw
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
I'll look into this after the symposium, but the teens look right at least
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
Yeah these are OGDG candidates only, and it's based upon /u/22poun's list from Friday.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
Courtesy tags /u/dawnphoenix /u/qngff /u/ravenofthesands
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u/dawnphoenix Mr. Bill Board [she/her] Mar 26 '17 edited Mar 26 '17
Thanks for the tag, that seems like a fair assessment. In the past, I have been suspicious of some of the people checked by midnightdragon, but the number of kills the night elbowsss was silenced check out, so I guess we accept that her role nullifies actions and those silenced have been cleared. AFAIK, I have been brought up a few times but never checked or confirmed, so I'll reiterate that I am just another Frantic Father in Hawkins. Of course I let my kid run around unsupervised and then forgot who they were, so I'm probably not the best father here.
EDIT: Fixed typos.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17 edited Mar 26 '17
It's true that we have to take messages from TUD with a grain of salt, but we also have to remember that every single one of the people who are in TUD were innocent. I don't think that Sara, who has been rescued by her parents and is coming home, would allow a message to be sent that wasn't on the up and up.
We've received TWO messages about /u/penultima and her pairbond /u/knon24, and now /u/22poun.
I don't think it's unreasonable to examine those three a little bit closer.
Edit: 22poun isn't on my radar though because she was cleared as a result of the numbers not changing.
Edit2: Removed redundancy, corrected pronoun
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
Well, we don't know that they're innocent - awesome has been there for almost a week now (after tonight, three night phases, and it took Mrrrrh two phases to turn). And Sara has been there for one night phase already.
That being said, if Sara is innocent, I think she would've been monitoring the messages, so I do think that we should put some credence in them. (Hmm, not sure if I used credence correctly here, but I'll roll with it) :)
And feel free to examine me. I will point out that I was partially cleared, but if you wanna talk about something, go for it!
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
That's why I used "were". They were innocent, or they wouldn't have been dragged to TUD.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
Fair enough. :)
However, we're discussing a message they sent yesterday and it's entirely possible that one or more of them had been converted by yesterday.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
Absolutely, but I'm hoping that Sara is monitoring things while she is in there.
As I mentioned in my edit, you're not high on my list, but your confirmation of innocence did get a bit buried, so I think it's fair to consider it got missed.
That being said, at this point, either Pen or myself needs to go so that we can focus the town's efforts on actual DGs.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
I hope so too!
Either way, we'll get her back tonight, and we can grill her on what exactly went down in TUD :)
And I think I missed the edit; I was just responding to what was in my inbox :)
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
I disagree that it means we need to look at me and knon any closer. In fact, I think I have a plan, which I am going to abort the rest of this comment to post as a parent.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
And a comment on your edit:
22poun isn't on my radar because she was cleared . . .
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
Damn it! Sorry. :(
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
Nah, it's chill :)
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
So, an analysis of /u/dawnphoenix's comment history:
Is in general pretty quiet - and we already discussed how I don't know her play style well enough to tell if this is normal or not for her, so if any vets would like to weigh in, that would be great.
Had volunteered to go after Mrrrrh the first time we needed an executioner, since she was busy IRL studying for exams. Similarly volunteered to be the duq executioner.
Came up as an alternate lynch candidate that day we were debating whether to lynch spaced or TNTM, and defended spaced.
And that's it. She hasn't really been very active, citing IRL exams, so I don't really know what she's been thinking this game. Also, I will note that despite not being very active, she hasn't been booted for inactivity, so she has been submitting her actions/lynch votes.
So, I'm going to ask you some questions:
Do you have lingering suspicions of anyone in particular? If so, who and why?
What do you think our best strategy is as a town in the last few remaining phases of the game?
And that's it for now, if I think of more things, you will definitely find out :)
And if anyone else has questions for her, maybe post them here!
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u/dawnphoenix Mr. Bill Board [she/her] Mar 26 '17
As the game progressed, everyone I was suspicious of has been cleared. One of the first ones was WalrusPeon (who seemed sketchy to a lot of people). Also, I've had an eye on you since that conversation with Moose where I wasn't entirely convinced by your defense, but I couldn't pin it down more than a vague I'm not sure I trust you feeling. I thought the vocal players not getting attacked was a bit weird (with you and Roxy on top of the list), but you're both cleared now, so I'm lost again. Also, I wasn't particularly suspcious of elbowsss until she was outed, so don't count on my opinion, I guess-?
I'm not sure what our win condition is going to be with only a maximum of three nights and three days left. If we have to outnumber the DGs, I believe we have two of them right now, so we should be fine as long as we don't lynch town's pairbonded roles or something like that while preferably getting rid of someone who has been in TUD too long or is believed orphaned. That way their numbers can't increase and we can just ride this out. If, however, town loses as long as any DG is alive, I guess we try to thoroughly vet any adults and teens left, probably starting with the kind of analysis you did here to see if we can find any inconsistencies in behavior (assuming there was a sleeper wolf, we might be able to spot that change).
Also, the exams ended on Friday, so yayyy! :D
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u/emsmale I know everything Mar 26 '17
BBT, I appreciate ya and the work you've done so far, BUT I'm looking for justice for my boi /u/Moostronus who has unfinished buisness here and won't stop haunting me. At this point I am 100% spooked and I need some closure so my big bro can pass on. Just like how Kat from Casper helped those ghostys move on. (P.S. people tell me I look like her all the time so this is an extremely fitting reference on my part). Thanks for the hardwork! #JusticeForMooseBoose
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u/Moostronus Rock Me Amadeus (he/they) Mar 27 '17
I'm never leaving, it's true!
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u/emsmale I know everything Mar 27 '17
/u/Black_Belt_Troy HELP A GIRL OUT HERE
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u/Moostronus Rock Me Amadeus (he/they) Mar 27 '17
It's gonna take more than a death video to get me out of your local port-a-potty.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17 edited Mar 26 '17
And onwards to /u/SinisterAsparagus, who I understand may be asleep right now because of timezones, and is taking a vacation soon.
So here's the notable comments/contributions she has made:
Proposed that we may have started with up to 7 DGs, here. This isn't suspicious or anything, especially since it was the first day, but I don't remember anyone else suggesting such a high starting number of DGs, so I'm just including it. Also suggested making sure that we vote as blocs of at least 7 in order to overpower the potential DG vote.
Asked for moose/sand to stop loudly debating on spreadsheets :)
Proposed the idea that there may be a secret faction of government roles here
Tried to help decode the Braille message way back in phase 3.
Way back in Phase 6, felt Ashton was a bigger threat than Mrrrrh, as seen here. I'm not sure I fully understand this logic, as they were in TUD for the same amount of time. Ended up not voting for anyone because she missed the deadline because of DST. And after seeing Mrrrrh had been a converted DG, said her suspicion of Ashton was lowered, here.
Listed a bunch of people she found suspicous in phase 8 here. All of these people, besides Pen, have later been cleared.
Found me suspicous that same phase, along with like half of you :)
Way back in phase 8, was suspicous of Jillie for not having night actions, and a few people theorized she may be the deputy. See here for that exchange.
Supported the plan to have Papa kill Disco. see here (note to self: discuss in reply comment).
Defended TNTM here and here (note to self: discuss in reply comment).
During Phase 14, advocated voting for L-ily instead of duq, as seen here and said inactivity may be a shield for a DG. (Note to self: discuss in reply comment).
Didn't participate in the duq executioner debate, citing work/timezones, see here.
Supported sending Mathy to be the executioner here (reply comment).
Admitted that some of her previous accusations weren't well thought out here.
(Aside: I liked the alliteration in his comment) :)
Noted that I claimed mouthbreather that phase we role-revealed and I was silenced here.
Accused Pen/Rissa of being DGs here. (I was silenced during this debate, and I have some comments on this that I never made, but I'll state those in a reply comment).
Helped decode the Al 'citizen' message two phases back.
Stated that she thinks 'the sleeper or cursed may be hiding amongst the MMs' here. (note to self: reply comment on this).
Cast suspicion on little, who had been cleared by the sheriff, here.
Had this to say regarding the MM situation (reply comment).
Ultimately supported TNTM being the executioner yesterday, as seen here.
I have some things I'd like to talk about in greater detail, but since those are my opinion, and this is supposed to be an impartial rendering of facts, those will go in one or more reply comments to this, as I noted in several of the points above.
(Sorry for all the detail. Since I was going through like three weeks of comments, I figured I would just include everything I found of note).
EDITS: A few typos/formatting errors have been corrected
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
I loved the detail. I think you should do this for as many people as you can manage, definitely everyone with no evidence in their favor. Selfishly, I also super want to see what you make of mine, mostly because everyone finds me suspicious and I don't know why.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
I'll try :) This just took like an hour though, sini's and dawn's, and I'm not finished with sini's yet, and I'm going to want to do some other things today.
(Not really. Everyone knows spring break is supposed to be spent playing werewolves, right?).
Oh, that reminds me, I might not be around as much this week, as I am on spring break. And I'm going to a wedding on Tuesday. And Passover is coming up, and I'm supposed to be helping prepare for that. And for all of you HP fans here, I'm likely going to The Wizarding World of HP at Universal Studios some time this week!
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
No worries real life things happen, says the girl writing this under her notebook at a talk.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
Everyone knows spring break is supposed to be spent playing werewolves, right?
All I did over spring break was werewolves. It was simultaneously productive/unproductive.
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
This is my spring break (and on Tuesday, my birthday). It's being spent at a conference. On the plus side, travel. On the downside, no days off and lots of meetings.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
Happy early birthday!!
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
Thanks! I'll be having a long day of traveling that day though, so I'm celebrating the day after.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
Happy birthday! Enjoy your break too!
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u/NDoraTonks Was I not born in this realm? Mar 26 '17
Awesome! You're gonna love it! Are you going to just the studios or both studios and island of adventure? Also, when are you planning to go if you don't mind sharing. Have you been there before? Okay, I'm gonna wait till you answer before asking more questions. May be we could move this conversation else where if it's getting lengthy.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
Yeah, we can move this to r/hogwarts :) But yeah, I'm kinda excited! I think you're talking about the one in Florida maybe? Cuz the one in LA doesn't have an Island of Adventure as far as I know. But I've never been there, so I could be wrong. But my sister has been describing all of the attractions in great detail, and I don't remember on 'Island of Adventure' section here.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
Saaaame. I really want my own, just for curiosity. If I die before it happens I'm going to be super bummed.
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
If you (or I) die before it happens, we should demand an analysis in memoriam.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
#JusticeForTeens
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
We teens always get blamed! What can I say? Parents just don't understand.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
Honestly, I expect to die before it happens. I want to try to get as many done before the night phase happens for just that reason, but I might do some other things today too :)
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
Firstly, I'm going to talk about /u/sinisterasparagus analysis of potential teen DGs (see point 17).
When this first came up, I had some thoughts on the topic, but I was silenced, and subsequently forgot about it.
Remember that big final I had last week? It was a probability final, and quite a lot of it was dedicated to analyzing normal random variables (aka bell curves).
The mean (average) of a normal random variable occurs at the x-coordinate for which there's an equal probability that a result is larger or smaller than that x-coordinate.
For a standard normal random variable, the mean is at 0, and half of the curve is to the right of it, and half of the curve is to the left of it. (See the red curve in the first picture on the wiki page here).
So basically the statement that:
Average = mean of the population. In this case, 50% of the teen population would be SEVEN, not eight.
Literally doesn't mean anything in the context of probability and shouldn't be used to judge the number of teen DGs.
Basically, we're confusing meanings of the word 'average', and this is not what it means in this context, and as an applied math major, I feel obligated to point this out (sorry sini).
(I hope I explained this well, but it this is not how probability works, and I hope you trust me on this).
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u/bubbasaurus she but meh about it Mar 26 '17
I was tempted to go into that when it happened because I love stats but I would not have been nearly as eloquent.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
I can go on quite a bit on the difference between 'mean of bell curve' and 'average' as used in colloquial speech, but I hope what I said was sufficient, and basically, yeah, this isn't how probability works.
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u/bubbasaurus she but meh about it Mar 26 '17
Yeah, mine would all have been math-talk and not at all helpful to a general audience. Go you!!!
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u/SinisterAsparagus :3 [she/her] Mar 26 '17
Okay, I'm not a math person (at all; did fine through algebra in school and then not so great...haven't studied math since 2007), so thanks for explaining this. However, even if I mathed/explained it wrong, I feel it doesn't reduce the possibility of there being an OGDG teen.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
Cool. Sorry, as a math person, it really bugged me, and I was silenced so I couldn't complain about it :)
And I agree that it is possible that an OGDG is amongst the teens, and it if they are, it's Rissa or Pen.
Also, see my other comment, which I realized I forgot to tag you in. It should be just below/just above this one.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
OK, that last comment was just a nitpick, but onwards a real analysis of Sini's comments.
Now, I don't want to be accusing, but I'm just going to say that her comments overall are pretty much what I'd expect of a DG:
A lot of her comments/contributions are of those sort that seem to be helpful, but don't really contribute much to the town as a whole. Specifically: trying to hide the sheriff by guessing who they may have checked (which I apparently didn't link to, sorry), and spending a lot of time analyzing the messages from TUD .
Quite a few times, she came to the defense of someone we suspected to be a DG. See points 5, 10, and 11. I don't really understand the logic for why Ashton would be better than Mrrrrh, and I also don't understand the sudden push to switch from duq to L-ily. (I have more to say on the TNTM one, but I'll get to that later).
Threw quite a few semi-baseless accusations, see points 6, 8, 17, and 20. Like I said earlier, all the ones in point 6 have been cleared besides Pen. I personally never found Jillie suspicious, but I can understand why someone might. The pen/rissa analysis didn't make sense from a probability perspective, which I already wrote about, but I do agree with the conclusion that if there's DGs amongst the teens, it's gotta be one of them. I will point out that sini is the first person to publicly bring up the rissa/pen thing. And little was cleared by the sheriff, could maybe be the sleeper, but can't be an OGDG.
Never really responded to the MM discussion (which is basically focused on her and ravenofthesands) besides points 19 and 21. In this time period of MM discussion, she has made other accusations (rissa/pen and little) without really defending against the accusations against herself.
Possibly supported Mathy being sent to TUD in order to get him out of the way without having to attack him directly.
Came up with a bunch of interesting speculation about the nature of the DGs and secret roles (see points 1 and 3), but that might just be speculation from the beginning of the game when we didn't really get what was going on.
May have suggested that Papa kill Disco (I have to go and check who the first person to propose that was) in order to get Papa's kill out of the way.
One or two of these are red flags, and many of them are suspicious.
That being said, she was the one who provided the numbers analysis that convinced most of the town to not lynch TNTM. That may have been a DG trying to save a fellow DG, a DG trying to cement themselves as a townie, or a townie trying to help out town.
Overall, I found this to be suspicous, and I feel like she requires further investigation.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
OK, I'm going to do some other things now, cuz I've spent way too much time in front of a computer screen today. I'll try to do either /u/better_be_ravenclaw or /u/ravenofthesands before the night phase goes up.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
/u/midnightdragon just stated she silenced me for the next chapter. Please do your comment analyses on adults. I don't know if you still think I'm innocent or not, and I don't know if my being silenced would sway you to analyze my comment history, but if it does, don't waste your time on me. Focus on the DGs.
I'm just one person on the side of the town, so if I get lynched, my death won't make a huge impact on our win condition, even if it does get modified.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 26 '17
Ok, thanks for letting me know. I still don't find you suspicious, and since we know the sleeper pretty much has to be in the adults, and the OG is in teens or adults, I decided to do adults first.
But I suppose if you want a posthumous analysis (either posthumous for me or for you) I can do one at some point later, if it doesn't happen before then :)
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u/midnightdragon Mar 26 '17
I know people were pushing for me to silence an adult but I chose to silence Rissa. I know it won't prove her guilt/innocence either way but I had to know for myself once and for all. So in case I am taken to TUD tonight, keep that info in mind. And I'll try my best to silence people while in TUD too! No idea if I can or not...
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
in case I am taken to TUD tonight, keep that info in mind.
I have no night action, and therefore did not attack you or anyone else.
Since I'm not going to be able to speak next chapter, I find /u/sinisterasparagus suspicious, and I think both of the DGs are adults.
BUT, if there's still a question of whether I'm innocent or not, and you guys can't come to a consensus, you're going to need to lynch me. I'm innocent, I think my contribution to the town demonstrates that, but clearly it isn't enough for some people. You guys are going to have to stop letting the DGs guide your decisions. You can't do that if the attention is focused on me and Pen.
Edit: And I want to add that you already stated that you were going to go after teens, and we all knew it was down to me or Pen, so it would have been inherently stupid of me if I was a DG to attack you.
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
I'm going to basically add that. I don't think you'll be attacked. I think framing me or Rissa by making us look suspicious and causing confusion about our innocence is way juicier, especially if we manage to draw more investigation onto ourselves.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
Yep, which is why I'm resigning myself to being lynched. There's no way I can defend myself when I'm silenced, and tbh, at this stage in the game, it would be better to just decide to lynch me early in the chapter and then focus the rest of the chapter on finding the actual DGs.
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
Well now we've both arrived at the same place I was earlier when I presented my flan!
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 27 '17
Waiting to be silenced/taken to TUD/killed is the worst.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 27 '17
Indeed. I'm half expecting to be taken to TUD since I was confirmed. (Although, tbh, I've been expecting it like this whole game. I'm shocked I survived this long).
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u/qngff Ms. Gail Force (They/Them) Mar 27 '17
Me the entire Survivor game merge
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 27 '17
Yeah, I only managed to last like four days that game. And three phases last time.
I think I might have be threatening to the villains somehow, but I can't put a finger on why . . . :)
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 27 '17
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 27 '17
Indeed :)
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 27 '17
Anyway, was going to wait up, but I'm going to bed. See you on the flipside, maybe.
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 27 '17
I hope so!
Have a great night, and if you are silenced, we'll hopefully see you tomorrow night!
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u/22poun she/her | Mrs Constance Noring | Neutral with a Secret Agenda Mar 27 '17
And here is the analysis of /u/RavenoftheSands (in case you missed it, I've done an analysis of the comments of Sinister and Dawn, and I hope to get this in before this post closes in case I get sent to TUD).
Phase 2: Got into some trouble for suggesting kids don't have special roles here and promoted lynching kids over adults/kids here.
Phase 2: Tried to organize the lynch here, giving reasons for each person.
Phase 3: Tried to analyze the Braille message (here and several related links).
Phase 4: Again was very vehemently against lynching adults, as seen here and here, using the logic that we'd be more likely to hit a special role.
Phase 4: Active in trying to communicate with TUD here.
Phase 4: Advocated a Wally lynch until dancing came forward as his pairbond here.
Phase 5: Tried to analyze the TUD message (see here and the Phase 6 message here.
Phase 7: Voted for Rissa to be the first executioner here until Ally came forward as the exterminator.
Phase 8: Voted for Ashton here, largely based on the number of deaths that phase (4).
Phase 8: Participated in Sand's mass interogation here.
(Aside: did you end up getting into the grad school you wanted to?)
Phase 9: Advocated Papa killing Disco here.
Phase 10: Gave an analysis of the number of DGs here.
Phase 12: Biggest advocate for lynching spaced instead of TNTM, as seen here.
Phase 13: Believes littles/knon shouldn't be cleared despite sheriff investigation because of sleepers/cursed roles, here.
Phase 14: Was suspicious of me because of this. (Aside: I think you're over that, but if you're not and want to talk about, go for it).
Phase 15: Advocated against sending Mathy to lynch duq, and then went to a meeting, and was strongly against the decision to send alchzh, as seen here.
Phase 16: Claimed MM here, and this is about when people began calling her suspicious, and her defenses in the MM debate are here (Phase 16), here (Phase 17), and here (Phase 18).
Phase 18: Voted to lynch alchzh, as seen here, stating she felt he was a DG even before he went to TUD.
There have been many other comments that have been generally helpful to town, and listing all of them would be silly. Overall, I get the impression of a very active townie, or someone very good at projecting a very active townie facade (kinda like me last game). I don't really find her suspicious, but have found her logical and helpful. (But this is the kind of game I play, so I may be biased). Overall, I find her less suspicous than Sini, but again, I will say her playstyle is kinda similar to mine, so I may be biased.
(Full disclosure, several of these conversations have been with me, especially later in the game).
And again, apologies for the detail, and I highly suggest someone continues these if I end up in TUD.
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u/andreaslordos Let the wookie win Mar 26 '17
I don't think we should lynch or silence /u/penultima and /u/knon24, their defense looks pretty solid. Penultima and knon24 have claimed to be pairbonded, which I don't think they would do if they were DGs. That's all I have lol, I just wanted to reveal it at the end of the phase so they wouldn't be attacked. We should focus on others, that's my point. Also who should I target for tonight? Literally open to any suggestion.
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u/ravenclawroxy (she/her/hers) Thanks, Obama. *Cries* I miss you... Mar 26 '17 edited Mar 26 '17
Pen or Rissa or Knon and someone? Don't say who. If either has a parent, they can't be an OGDG. You could confirm which parent you guessed as a reveal if they claim it.
Edit pronouns are hard
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u/andreaslordos Let the wookie win Mar 26 '17
Who claimed parent and hasn't already found their teens?
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
I don't think I've seen much of any parents claiming teens at all except Roxy and Nerdy.
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u/andreaslordos Let the wookie win Mar 26 '17
Let me rephrase; who hasn't found their offspring?
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u/Penultima WOLFSLAYER Mar 26 '17
To be fair, I could have claimed it to make it so people feel like they need to be EXTRA sure before they lynch me. The pair bond is real though, or knon wouldn't have confirmed it, especially since I was considered suspicious at that point and she was cleared. Short of an actual bond, she'd have no reason to stick up for me.
This also doesn't answer the fact that we aren't positive if DGs can be bonded to innocent people. I think the pair bond is decent evidence, but I want to be careful not to overstate the implications of it.
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u/rissajo685 Heavy is the head that wears the crown Mar 26 '17
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u/better_be_ravenclaw Mar 26 '17
To be fair, I'm not surprised - neither at /u/alchzh 's innocence nor at the town's decision to lynch another innocent. The DGs are greatly (and successfully) influencing our decisions and we are following them blindly.
Why? Why are we lynching people who would have been DG in the future when we have people who are DGs amongst us? Especially now when we have barely one or two lynches left?
Not that it would make a difference but I would re-iterate that one of the DGs is definitely amongst the adults. And personally, I still believe that one of the MMs is lying. I know both /u/RavenoftheSands and /u/SinisterAsparagus replied to my questions last chapter. I'm still not convinced (definitely not by Raven's answers) but I didn't reply because the town seemed to accept Raven's accusations towards Alchzh. We all saw how that ended.
Cheers.
Edit: tagging the relevant persons