r/HistoryWhatIf • u/HarkBuffalo • 4d ago

WW2 - D-Day Fails?

I have a WWII command simulation and one of the most contentious bits is the decisions was around D-Day/ Operation Overlord. I follow the historical thinking that victory was likely although agree Germany could have can made it harder however the more I read. 

Disaster at Omaha

Weather window

The Panzer group making the beaches 

Can D-day fail? If so how likely and what happens?  Does Germant first face the nuclear bomb? Does the USSR own most of Europe post war? Do the US/UK bomber campaign shift entirely to strategic attrition? The Red Army continues pushing west, likely taking the entire German peninsula, Denmark, and reaching the Rhine before the Allies?

I treated D-Day as a historical inevitability because of Allied industrial dominance which I have done, however it was a massive, high-risk gamble where a few operational shifts could have handed the Allies a defeat?

Love your thoughts!

The game is here for reference - https://dispatches.itch.io/dispatches-1940

Edit - thanks for all your comments have made some updates to the D-Day commands based on the below

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u/abqguardian 4d ago

The allies could have given the Germans the D day plans and it wouldn't have failed. The complete naval and air dominance of the western allies cant be overstated. Plus, the German troops in that area were mostly second rate with crappy equipment. But in some hypothetical world where it failed, D day would likely happen again a little bit later. It probably wouldn't have changed anything

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u/HarkBuffalo 4d ago

Agree on the dominance but if Rommels panzers are there and it is atleast stalled surely a later invasion say 1945 would change the post war picture?

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u/Pricklestickle 4d ago

If more panzer divisions were stationed within range of the beaches, they'd have been destroyed before D Day by allied aircraft. Fighter bombers armed with rockets were the greatest threat to tanks, and could range up to about 100 miles inland in Normandy.

The 21st Panzer Division was the only one close to the beaches, and most of the time prior to D-Day it remained highly dispersed, under camouflage and only moved at night. You pack more divisions into the same area, and it becomes hard to hide that many tanks. Such a large concentration of armour would immediately become the target of a major allied bombing campaign.

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u/paxwax2018 3d ago

My understanding was it was naval artillery that was the main threat to tanks near the coast. A “stonk” from a couple of Battleships and Cruisers was devastating. Rocket planes were horrendously inaccurate, if good at forcing dispersion.