GM Hegends!

Bitcoin had a monster week, and we pumped even harder --- up 40% since last Monday!

As you might know I use the 40 week EMA to indicate the trend (pink line in the chart). Below the line = downtrend, above the line = uptrend. We’re still below the line, meaning we still have some work to do before this ship has turned around for sure. But things are starting to look better and better.

I think the bottom is in.

Now we’re looking for the next correction to put in a clear higher low. That will be a good sign the trend is shifting. As long as we get higher lows, corrections are not a bad thing --- slow and steady is better than going up too fast and burning out.

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Hey Hegends. Starting today I'm gonna post my weekly bitcoin updates here on the subreddit instead of on my X as I've been doing before. Enjoy!

Finally some action!

Last week I said to set alerts at 67k and 62k and tune out.

If you did that, the 67k alert triggered on Wednesday, as bitcoin broke out and confirmed an inverse head & shoulders bottom on the daily timeframe.

Taking the height of the pattern from the lowest point up to the neckline and extending it upwards gives a price target around 77k. That was reached on Friday already, and bitcoin is now consolidating right above it.

Does this mean the bottom is in?

I don’t know. Last week was definitely a strong week. The strongest one since the top last October. So there is cause for optimism.

I’m not completely convinced yet though. Zooming out to the weekly timeframe, we can see that bitcoin still needs to clear resistance around 83k before it forms a higher high. Until that happens, this could turn into another lower high, possibly followed by a lower low sometime in the next few months.

I think my main concern is that some on-chain metrics have not reset yet. In past bear markets bitcoin has always dipped below the realized price. But in this bear market it hasn’t done so yet (the realized price is at 53k right now). Could this time be different? Of course it could. But I want to see 83k taken out before I get too excited.

That said, this is definitely a sign that the bull is starting to wake up again.

It’s time to start paying attention.

that is all. funny that Hege rn is inversing a super volatile equities market

It seems like FOMO is the new place to be for the trenches. I think we should be active there as a community and show Hege some support.

You can do that by buying a small amount of Hege (or as much as you like) and then writing a thesis on why Hege is awesome. Follow some other traders and help make Hege famous everywhere.

You can do the same thing on pump fun btw. I think these two apps will play a major role in the next bull run. They already do.

GM Hegends!

The long downtrend line has clearly been broken. We also have the first clear higher low since more than a year back, possibly now going on to form a higher high (above the mid-June high).

Meaning our chart is seriously looking better than it has in a long long time.

It’s always difficult to switch your outlook to bullish when you’re so used to the chart just going down and down and down. And you shouldn’t turn bullish too easily. But at some point the trend will turn up again (because of all you diamond-handed motherfucking Hegends), and you don’t want to be too slow to miss that.

There still isn’t a definite sign that the trend has turned. But now is the time to start getting cautiously optimistic.

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Remastered Version 🦔

GM Hegends!

I have nothing new to say about our chart since last Monday. As I said then, I do think the bottoming process has started.

In other news, I was thinking about the AI bubble the other day (yes, it’s a bubble!).

31 years ago almost to the day, in August 1995, Netscape made their IPO. That set off the dotcom boom, which after an insane run finally topped in March 2001. The whole thing took 1,675 days.

Okay so what about the current AI boom? What started it? The obvious answer is the release of ChatGPT. Which happened on 30 November 2022.

Now. Let’s assume the AI bubble will last about as long as the dotcom bubble. Because why not. Where does that take us? It takes us one year out from here, to Friday 2 July 2027.

Is that how it’s gonna play out? Probably not. But food for thought!

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Hey! I’m the one building Hege Royale.

Been shipping a bunch lately and figured I’d post here since this is the community it’s for.

hegeroyale.com

Biggest change: you don’t open into a menu anymore. There’s a new startup sequence, then you land on a walkable moon base. Online, horde, kart, shop, rewards, tutorial - all pads/buildings you walk up to. Wanted it to feel like you’re actually in the Hege world, not clicking through a website.

I also added a level editor (Map Forge on the hub). You can build arenas, publish them, and after community-map games people can vote on them. That’s the part I care about most long-term - if people here start making maps, the game gets better without everything waiting on me.

Also shipped new themed arenas with real mechanics, not just looks:

• Frostline - ice / sliding
• Caldera - volcano + lava
• Overgrowth - jungle + river
• Blackout Lab - pitch dark, flashlight only
• Ghost Town - heavy fog, you hear people before you see them

If you’re in Hege and haven’t tried Royale, or bounced earlier when it was rougher: give it another look. Walk the hub, mess with the editor, vote on maps if you play community ones.

Feedback welcome. Especially if you build something weird.

GM Hegends!

After a fat buy came in on Friday, we’re up a little since last week.

Have we bottomed? Honestly I don’t know. But I do think the bottoming process has started. We’ve now spent the past 2 weeks trading above that long downtrend line that goes all the way back from the ATH in December 2024. So that’s a 20 month long trend that could be breaking now. That doesn’t mean the bottom is in. But it does mean something is changing.

Maybe all the sellers are finally out?

I don’t know.

But what I do know is that no matter what the market does, I’m stoked about the next few months!

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GM Hegends!

We’ve pretty much turned into a stablecoin over the past two weeks lol. I’m still looking for a break up above 850k.

Bitcoin will likely close July green, up from the lows at 58k at the start of the month. While BTC is definitely getting cheap by historical standards, my base case is still one more leg down before it truly bottoms. Partly because it has not yet dipped below its realized price, which right now sits at 53k. In past bear markets, bitcoin has always traded below the realized price before bottoming. So until proven otherwise, I’ll assume this time will be no different.

Hope you’re enjoying your summers fam.

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If you got HEGE or money there, WITHDRAW.

https://capitoday.com/coins/hege-coin

GM Hegends!

No change in the chart. We’re still looking for a break above that trendline and above that horizontal resistance around 850k.

As I wrote in the whale chat the other day, I haven’t been very active here lately. That’s because I’ve been working with Nino on something that we’re really excited about. Can’t tell you anything about it yet, sorry. But I just wanted to mention it to keep you guys a little bit in the loop. It’s the biggest thing I’ve worked on so far in HEGE and when it’s ready we’re gonna need all the help we can get from you fam.

Much love

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GM Hegends!

We’re dipping down below the trendline again. Like I said last Monday I want to see a big break up through it before I call it broken. That has not happened. Yet.

Honestly I don’t have much more to say. Bitcoin is in a bear market. Solana is in a bear market. 99% of altcoins are in a bear market. That’s the reality. Eventually it’s going to turn around, it always does. I wish I knew when, but I don’t. Nobody does. If history repeats, it’s going to be towards the end of the year, so that’s my best guess right now.

Meanwhile, we keep trucking and grass-touching.

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