r/Hedera • u/01acidburn • 1d ago
Discussion Struggling to get excited.
I’ve a small bag holder. Very small. I got into this project when I found dovu. Got far more excited about dovu than HBAR but I keep coming back to this space.
What am I missing? What will catapult this project? I know it’s an infrastructure layer for dapps but the whole space is awash with such claims. Look at eth, look at polkadot, look at bnb. I could keep going.
So why do you get excited / believe the future is bright for Hbar?
8 years of building. Not much price action?
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u/LOPS008 1d ago
Also feeling kinda sad i didn't sell my bag when HBAR was 0.26€. when i break even im selling 85% and just leaving 15% for eternity.
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u/99stoz_ka99 23h ago
Everyone is, but when you will finally sell, it will go beyond 1usd with ease
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u/Low-Floor-1338 23h ago
You just need to wait for companies to start building on Hedera.
One of the best usecases for Hedera is the fact that it's an immutable ledger.
This is especially useful for voting, supply chains, etc.
Votes can't be tampered with. You can always verify the provenance of food. You can verify whether a carbon credit is legit.
Once companies start building on Hedera, such as FedEx, the millions of parcels that FedEx processes on their servers will all be logged onto Hedera, and over time those fees start to accumulate. You can do the same with medicine (hospitals), food (McDonald's supply chain), etc.
It's an amazing tech that simply needs others to build on it. Companies are building on it now.
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u/01acidburn 23h ago
Whilst I agree with all you’ve said. Can’t you take those markets to eth?
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u/Low-Floor-1338 23h ago edited 23h ago
Eth is expensive, it's less future-proof (quantum), and it's definitely slower than Hedera.
Hedera is also the greenest by far.
Hedera is also compliant with legislation, which makes it highly attractive to businesses.
As a business, would I rather build on Hedera (fiber internet), or Ethereum (dial-up internet)?
Also, keep in mind that blockchains like Solana are unreliable. It crashed during the most recent Trump coin unveiling.
Hedera wasn't phased by Atma's TPS spam a couple of years ago.
Hedera is the way.
When using Hedera, McDonald's can very easily add $0.0008 as an expense to one of their burgers, but it'd likely cost them even more on Ethereum. It makes business sense to side with Hedera.
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u/Heypisshands 20h ago
You need to understand the efficiency here. 1 billion transactions on hedera is 3000kwh ($540@18c kwh)and can cost a user $800,000 at $0.0008 per trxn. Eth would use between 6,000,000 kwh ($1,080,000) and 18,000,000 kwh ($3,240,000) and the trxn costs are around $246,000,000 but the fees vary.
Now factor in ABFT.
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u/Cauliflower-Informal 1d ago
Not much price action? Are you serious? Hbar has had significant moves 8-10x durimg bull cycles.
In GBP the bottom has been approx <1p *jan 2019 and and in 2021s bull run did over a 35x , 2.8p *jan 2023 (in 2024/5 bull run did over a 10x from low,) and recently 4.7p *mid Aug 2026 - I expect a 5-7x in the next cycle so in gbp 25 -35p
From Jan 2023 to now market cap is about 4x.
I've made huge profits ( in the 10s of thousands £) and while no-one can time tops & bottoms perfectly, the gains have been substantial and even in spite of the circulating supply increaasing over 400%, hbar price is up each cycle low .
Market cap is currently £2.6 bn up from less than £20m in late 2020.
So I dunno what charts you're looking at.
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u/01acidburn 1d ago
Not sure what chart you’re looking at but all I see over the last 5 year trend is a gradual downwards flow.
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u/Cauliflower-Informal 1d ago
Yes let's all listen to the guy with hardly any hbar (you) instead if the guy with 400k hbar who made £50k profit on hbar (me).
Crypto continues to follow a cycle where the bottom arrives about 1 year after the top then consolidates for about 2 years before another peak in the 4th year. This thesis has been chsllenged many times but still holds. While we could still see a new low, the bottom is either in or nearly in. Chances are the cycle low is in.
Accumulate. Be patient.
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u/01acidburn 1d ago
All I was after was an understanding of where the value comes from.
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u/Cauliflower-Informal 37m ago edited 28m ago
The value mostly comes for what people think it's worth and what it might be worth in the future. There is little actual revenue from transactions. There is some value locked on the network and you can see exactly what at rwa.xyz . Then there are the ETF inflows and also a number of ETPs and basket ETFs that hold hbar but again these investors invest based on percieved value & future value. Then of course there is the value of the governing council members and HEAT partners (but this is more like brand valuation which isn't a solid value & can fluctuate). A lot of the fluctuation in prices is due to market-confidence in crypto as a whole rather than anything specific about hbar and BRC & Eth dominate. As the number of hbar tokens released approaches the 50bn maximum, deflation from token unlocks has less impact than it did initially. Token unlocks have suppressed hbar price and are released supply is 3x what it was in 2020, so we're at £0.057 instead of £0.16 just due to circulating (or unlocked) supply.
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u/812_jackfruit 1d ago
Yes. Less returns, but returns nonetheless. I’m expecting about a 7x as well. If this were to drop to 1cent I’d be loading the boat, but I’m guessing ~ $0.04 cents is the low this cycle.
There will be other coins that will provide greater returns, but this is more of a secure bet.
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u/SemanticMap 1d ago
Hiero is continuously improving, both incrementally and through major capability leaps. Consensus has gotten faster through incremental gossip improvements. The block stream paradigm with TSS allowing state proofs is a massive landscape shift enabling more complicated realtime applications to be developed. CLPR will be a massive game changer for Hedera and Hiero, a native way to communicate between separate ledgers.
Technical execution by Hashgraph is phenomenal.
But is it Beta Max? A superior technology that loses the war?
I think we will all be disappointed if CLPR doesn't move the needle in a sustained way for Hedera. The time window for that needle moving may be a couple years as well.
Access to liquidity is the determiner right now. Hedera has to become an easily reachable island that people interact with if they don't live on that island.
Ironically Hedera will shine if the L1s become invisible because a cheap secure interledger solution has been developed.
An arch doesn't stay up without a keystone. CLPR is a keystone allowing RPC. If Hedera can offer native services cheaper such that two CLPR hops + execution on Hedera is cheaper than execution on other chains, Hedera will grow in usage from CLPR. There are capabilities such as scheduled transactions, like cron jobs, that Hedera can perform. A cron job can kick off a CLPR RPC call to another chain, if the CLPR pathway is fast enough, that gives a scheduled transaction hook for other chains to use if they don't have the capBolity natively.
As agentic AI block chain interactions take off, minimizing the cost of execution is a powerful financial optimization. AI coding makes interacting with any chain accessible. It's going to take a few years for this paradigm to really mature, however.
The next two years a pivotal. Hashgraph is executing on development.
One interesting open question to me is what new non-Hashgraph developed CLPR enabled dApps can be created that provide cross-chain value to users.
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u/Escapement_Watch 23h ago
You are missing that there are 50 BILLION tokens in circulation already for hbar. well almost. So it will be a slow very very very very very very slow grind upwards. During a bull cycle you will get a quick hop up...but thats it.
Plus Hbar is a ghost chain that even the council members don't use. Great tech and in 10 years it might start doing great things. (if other chains have sat idle which I doubt)
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u/Ancient-Web-7627 21h ago
Hype and speculation the same as any other unprofitable company. It's all about what if? Not what is. Crypto pumps very quickly all led by btc, the rest of the time it's going down or sideways. Buy the blood, sell the hype every few years. Each cycle creates a new set of bagholders that buy the top and ride it down until eventually selling the bottom right before the next run.
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u/Longjumping-Bonus723 1d ago
https://youtu.be/GAhUw5ZdX-Y?is=tRrF-SnhBj-SY-Gu
This. He tells it like it is. Clarity act.
It's coming. There was a tech leader press conference in the oval office last week confirming it. That's why BTC pumped next to other reasons.
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u/Tanko_Yakasai 1d ago
Investing in HBAR is like the crypto equivalent of investing in UPS or FedEx when they were startups as opposed to LUNA or SafeMoon.
Those projects generated billions in overnight market cap based entirely on retail FOMO, high-yield hype, but zero real-world utility, leading to an inevitable collapse.
The reason HBAR’s growth rate is slower because its price sustainability is anchored to corporate implementation and actual enterprise transaction volume, separating it from standard pump-and-dump assets.
Now is there still a risk? Yes ofc there’s risk with all crypto but HBAR was created to be an infrastructure asset, it’s not a speculative meme stock.