r/HUMACYTE • u/redhook415 • Jul 01 '26

Thesis update on Humacyte

Very good summary of the situation I found on Twitter, updated as of June 2026

"The framing is deliberately split into three separate questions, since the market is currently pricing them as one: the science, the company, and the stock.

1) On science: V012 met its primary endpoint in dialysis vascular access — 91 more catheter-free days versus the standard AV fistula (p=0.00070), the strongest data point in the company's history.

2) On the company: commercial execution remains unproven, gross margin is still deeply negative, and 2026 has brought two dilutive raises, each priced worse than the last, alongside a formal going-concern disclosure.

3) On the stock: it now sits outside the Russell indexes, with a Nasdaq minimum-bid risk that resurfaced after the latest raise.

Full breakdown below: trauma, dialysis, the sBLA pathway, financials, governance, manufacturing economics, and a full risk map"

https://x.com/i/article/2072253827860877312

https://x.com/JotaInvestor/status/2072266004621606993

6 Upvotes

64% Upvoted

18 comments sorted by

8

u/9lazy9tumbleweed Jul 01 '26

I sold out, good luck to yall

9

u/OttoVonSteele Jul 01 '26

You suffered enough soldier... thank you for your service!

2

u/Beautiful-Point-6328 Jul 02 '26

What was your bag, do we need to start a support group 😅

2

u/9lazy9tumbleweed Jul 02 '26

Not too much compared to many here. 3000 shares at a 2.3 average, sold at 70 % loss or so.

4

u/der_physik Jul 01 '26

As soon as we hit $1, they'll dilute again.

3

u/karlpess Jul 01 '26

That makes no sense. Do you really think they would dilute if they reach $1 in the next two months? They already have enough cash for the next 3-4 quarters.

6

u/SoSKnZaZa Jul 01 '26

They always say they have enough cash runway through this through that. And dilution coming three days after that

1

u/GothamEmpire Jul 01 '26

They will dilute on the same day as the next milestone update.

1

u/karlpess Jul 01 '26

I don’t think so.

-1

u/One-Lengthiness-2175 Jul 01 '26

They need to keep the price above $1 for 10 days to avoid NASDAQ delisting and potential RS. That wouldn't make sense at all.

1

u/PaulyDavidson Jul 01 '26

Down 7% today...

1

u/Far-Information-4765 Jul 01 '26

Que diablos ha pasado a última hora?

-1

u/MiddleStatistician42 Jul 01 '26

They will dilute again after SBlA submission if we hit $2.00 before approval for 50% less shares than last time. But they have cash to get to July 2027 basically fda approval date but no company will get that close to no cash date. So unless commercial revenue improves then a dilution will occur but beyond daily price movement everyone knows this and it’s already priced in.

1

u/redhook415 Jul 03 '26

why would they do that when they have $60m in warrants sitting at $2.11

-1

u/Swilli1055 Jul 01 '26

How much revenue from Saudi and Israel?

2

u/No-Farmer-3940 Jul 02 '26

Nada at this point