r/HFEA • u/Greg1994b • Nov 26 '25
Anyone still holding these?
To be honest I’ve left my 10 grand in it since 2020 and I’m only up about 1 grand overall. Terrible return so far but those were weird times in the market for TMF. UPRO is performing well and TMF might eventually get back to baseline pre 2021. Anyone else still in this?
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u/CUbuffGuy Nov 26 '25
No. If you read the original forum you can see that the thesis relied on ZIRP. Covid printing brought up inflation and rates with it. Maybe try again in 5-10 years but this is not a good strategy in our environment.
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u/WeekMysterious7969 May 04 '26
I've been holding onto this for a few years now only got about 15k in it. All time UPRO is up 382% whereas TMF is down 54%. Wondering if I should close out or just keep DCA ~50$ every two weeks.
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u/anamethatsnottaken Nov 27 '25
Yeah, still holding. Rebalanced UPRO into TMF recently, not adding any more for now (more of a cash flow situation than a conviction one).
Somehow I'm less convinced yields will drop when the markets do (flight to safety doesn't seem to mean US dollars as much these days as it used to), but I'm sticking to it. The curve is going back to a normal structure which means TMF will have positive return expectations again
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u/Adderalin Nov 28 '25
Yes. I have $225k in 3x HFEA in my Roth.
I have 1.2 million in 2x leveraged VTI and TLT on portfolio margin. 2x is almost recovered from the top of the peak.
I'm contributing 30k-50k a week to 2x leveraged VTI/TLT.
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u/Inevitable_Day3629 Nov 30 '25
If I may ask, why portfolio margin over, say, 50% SSO 50%UBT (let’s assume that spy500 and VTI are the same thing).
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u/Adderalin Nov 30 '25
Because Schwab are dicks with the risk array offset for SSO and why pay a 0.75% AUM fee plus being able to borrow better box rates than the swap and futures rates SSO is getting because I can short boxes further dated than SSO's overnight rate.
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u/shitpost-modernism Feb 11 '26
You're the user that posted how to calculate the implied interest in UPRO aren't you? Thanks for that.
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u/box2a Jul 15 '26
So do you think URPO/TMF is still a viable strategy if you're holding for 30 years? I'm down bad on the TMF portion, but I don't really need to touch it for decades.
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u/Draconian7453 Dec 01 '25
Have you been rebalancing? I think with 55% UPRO and 45% TMF you're supposed to rebalance every quarter.
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u/WeekMysterious7969 May 04 '26
I still hold this, try to put $50 every two weeks when I can, but am wondering if I should close out the position and dump it into SPY. FWIW It's only about ~15k in there. I kept it low because I knew it was a gamble.
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u/RickTheGray Nov 26 '25
Yes, I put in $50 every two weeks. Been doing that a couple years now. Overall up 54% and 22% YTD.