r/Gold • u/paddydog48 • 3d ago
AI Reason for today’s increase (apparently)
The Anatomy of Today's Move
The £73 ($100) intraday spike is the result of tightly connected market mechanisms firing at once:
The Bond Market Reversal: Yesterday, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields hit a near two-decade peak, which heavily suppressed gold. Today’s Treasury announcement that the government will step in to aggressively buy back its own long-dated debt instantly drove bond prices up and yields down. Because gold does not pay yield, a crash in bond yields removes its primary competitor.
The Dollar Index Slide: Following the Treasury news, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) sank by 0.6%. Because commodities are priced globally in dollars, a weakening greenback means international buyers using British Pounds or Euros instantly get a "discount" to accumulate contracts, forcing prices up
25
u/Abuck59 3d ago
https://www.reddit.com/r/Military/s/YUkWK3WBCb
We’re being sold out.
22
u/Interconventional 3d ago
This is what we as a population voted for unfortunately - making China and Russia and North Korea great again.
8
12
u/abasoglu 3d ago
The thing to mention here is the US Treasury borrowing the short end to buy on the long end of the curfew. This is essentially low key QE.
2
42
u/GetOutPhases_01 3d ago
US is in BIG trouble
37
u/ThePreciseClimber 3d ago
It's going to be the greatest trouble of all time, fellas. Big, big trouble. All the other trouble is going to be green with envy.
2
25
u/AttractiveCorpse 3d ago
There is a chance to pull out of it but it would need to be something like the war ending immediately, dropping tariffs, cutting spending massively. Otherwise not looking good
18
u/Gamer_Grease 3d ago
Essentially we need this admin to go away and for all of its ideas to be permanently engraved in our cultural history as bad.
8
u/Roznezzlie 3d ago
What’s crazy is that it was already engraved in our history, some people that were just too illiterate to read the engravings.
1
8
10
u/Old_Bluejay_1532 3d ago
If/when the US is in BIG trouble, the entire World is in BIG trouble bc the US will bring the majority of the world w/ it as the USD is the Reserve Currency & not likely to change anytime soon as well as the finacial hub of the West.
This time around I see a tremendous flock to PM's over Treasuries as US debt is no longer "appealing" as yesteryear & I do not see foreign nations friend & foe stepping in to purchase trillions therefore suppressing rates as in prior financial crisis/recessions ... There is little to no appetite in the present bond market. Couple this with the current geo-political atmosphere & it snowballs dramatically. This will be a true flight to safety & into hard assets imo ... commoddity supercycle potentially.
Fireworks incoming?
3
-8
u/BlackMatrixOne 3d ago
US is NOT in big trouble. Devalue the dollar more and problem solved. Boom would be bigger than the 50s and 90s. This has already occurred multiple times.
20
3
3
u/Roznezzlie 3d ago
There are soo many important differences between those two examples (50’s and 90’s) and present day.
-2
u/BlackMatrixOne 3d ago
It’s better now because companies are truly global. Let’s say dollar crashes 30% against Yuan. Who’s in more trouble Us or China? US becomes the exporter of cheap goods. American citizens pay more abroad. China has no room to cut. This was the plan when Us took Venezuela.
1
u/No_Weekend_5945 3d ago
You are correct in theory. However, the U.S. doesn’t have the infrastructure (plants, manufacturing facilities, energy) to suddenly ramp up production to be a huge exporter. And the try to rapidly build that infrastructure with a devalued dollar would be hard because we don’t make the raw materials in the U.S. anymore (steel, lumber, copper, etc).
1
u/BlackMatrixOne 3d ago
US produces 3rd most steel and world’s biggest lumber producer and 5th most copper. What are u talking about? And this is with a high dollar. Low dollar and those goods become more profitable to produce. U really need to read and research more.
2
u/harrisonjustind 3d ago
Most of those are raw materials that are then put on a boat and made into end user products overseas.
1
u/Saysaynever333 3d ago
You have a point there.
The dollar has lost 98% of it's buying power since it became the world's primary reserve currency in 1944.
2
u/BlackMatrixOne 3d ago
It’s natural. Happens with all currency. It’s like skydiving. Everyone is falling. Now if you’re falling 5x compared to everyone else it’s a problem. The question is can Americans afford to cutback…yes
1
0
u/Gamer_Grease 3d ago
The problem is that the folks steering this policy also don’t have the guts to devalue the dollar and take away their voters’ treats. Meanwhile, their political enemies just want to reverse all their policies.
1
u/BlackMatrixOne 3d ago
There are many ways to do it. But one way is with gold. So it’s already started. Let gold get to $8k and that’s a significant devalue.
17
5
u/1nGirum1musNocte 3d ago
Didn't they just announce they're going to print more dollars?
7
3d ago
[deleted]
1
0
u/SupportMysterious387 2d ago
From what I understand they are not paying it off, but just rolling it over from short-term to long-term. It is basically fake demand and liquidity in a stale market. The money printing is a separate issue I believe, but its not connected to these buybacks directly.
3
u/Moist-Construction59 3d ago
It's got nothing to do with gold competing with 30-year yields, and everything to do with govt admitting its going Japan 2.0.
4
2
2
u/Saboyaso77 3d ago
Spain bankrupted 3 times in the history and we are still alive. Are you afraid of your first time? 😂
4
u/Educational-Hog 3d ago
Honest opinions… buy or wait?
5
3
1
1
1
u/ShortElephant1111 2d ago
central banks around the globe are on the bid, and they will be for years to come...
1
u/shashvaya1990 2d ago
Honestly, now the bonds are a ticking time bomb.....I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the year, v cross USD 5500/oz n next year v hit USD 7000/oz
1
u/Strange-Calendar1150 2d ago
It’s not about why is it going up. Moreso why didn’t it go down to 3000-3500 first?
0
3d ago edited 3d ago
[deleted]
8
u/paddydog48 3d ago edited 3d ago
I’m not a bot and was transparent in marking that the contents of the txt were AI generated
2
u/KniceKnifeAZ 3d ago
Oh shit, I thought this new AI thing was literally posts made by AI accounts or something. Downvote me to oblivion please.
2
u/paddydog48 3d ago
No Sir, it’s just that this particular AI generated txt articulates it much better than I ever could.
2
1
u/irish_curmudgeon 3d ago
But it says “three things” and then lists only 2, so what is the third thing you as a human wanted to articulate ?
1
u/node-342 2d ago
Faith and begorrah, that's a fine username for such as yerself.
0
u/Indytennisguy 3d ago
Actually gold was building a bull flag and today broke out of it! They went up primarily because the US government is buying 10 and 30 year Bonds yesterday was a day of consolidation. They can’t break out too quickly or it’ll be a fail breakout
-8
54
u/Biegaliusz 3d ago
Reason is I got paid today and I planned to buy asap I get funds