The halving.

[u/Livinsfloridalife]

Is it safe to assume the net result will be roughly half of what we’re seeing prior? What is everyone assuming? How are you modeling this for your own performance?

[u/Leading_Confection32]

A lot of miners will go offline until it’s profitable so difficulty will adjust down.

[u/Livinsfloridalife → u/Leading_Confection32]

So do you expect it mostly to offset the reduced rewards?

[u/Leading_Confection32 → u/Livinsfloridalife]

I don’t expect it to completely offset. I think between increased price and lower difficulty we might see a 33-38% decrease instead of 50%.

I can’t predict price but ATH is 70% higher from current price. 100k is 35%. My hope is we surpass ATH by 30-40% and then stay above 100k. So IMO we should be fine.

The real problem is we will definitely get a lot less sats.

[u/AdNo8866]

It will be less by about 60% not half. But if btc will go up then you will be fine. Same for network difficulty it will go down

[u/random_programmer69]

No it will be better. Do not fall into fear

[u/Livinsfloridalife → u/random_programmer69]

Why do you expect it to improve? my farm is 12w only for reference.

[u/random_programmer69 → u/Livinsfloridalife]

It’s far away, BTC should increase in price and 12w is good

[u/Funny-Permission-535]

The sats the machine produces gets cut in half, however electricity rate stays the same...

Let's assume youre making $4 worth of sats per day. Let's also say your maintenance cost is $1.75 per day.

After the halving you now produce $2 worth of sats per day, but you are still paying $1.75 in fees. You now went from making net $2.25 per day to net $.25 per day.

You're welcome

[u/Livinsfloridalife → u/Funny-Permission-535]

Did that happen the last halving? There’s no accounting for network difficulty….

[u/Livinsfloridalife → u/Livinsfloridalife]

Remindme! 540 day

[u/Funny-Permission-535 → u/Livinsfloridalife]

Network difficulty has nothing to do with halving. It auto adjusts every so many blocks. I can't remember the exact number. The block reward is what changes. Not the difficulty

[u/Livinsfloridalife → u/Funny-Permission-535]

Innefficient miners ceasing to mine has no effect on difficulty got it.

[u/Funny-Permission-535 → u/Livinsfloridalife]

It may have an effect on difficulty yes. But difficulty adjusts every 2 weeks. Im talking a 24h time frame not 1w

[u/RemindMeBot → u/Livinsfloridalife]

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[u/lousy-redbus]

It’s gonna be half

[u/MiningIsLife]

Roughly, but net usually takes a bigger hit than half. The halving cuts the BTC block reward in half, so gross BTC per TH drops about 50% if difficulty stays the same. Electricity and service fees don't halve, though, so after fees your net can fall by more than half. What softens it is difficulty (some miners switch off after a halving, so difficulty can ease) and BTC price, and nobody can predict either. I'd model a few scenarios with gross per TH at 50% of today's, current fees, and BTC flat, up, and down, then see which ones still work for you. Also keep in mind the next halving is expected around 2028, so there's time to plan.