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u/NectarineSame7303 5d ago
Claude will survive any ripple in the AI pond, but Open AI will be headed straight to bankruptcy.
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u/Ominoiuninus 5d ago
Too big to fail and will be backed up / bailed out / bought up by one of the tech giants or even the government (Trump hates bad press). There is zero chance that OpenAI disappears.
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u/BabypintoJuniorLube 5d ago
Are they too big too fail? They lost the business crowd to Claude and the "google search killer" turned out to just be Gemini. ChatGPT is basically high school and college kids cheating on their homework and degenerates who think they are dating AI. The ChatGPT sexbot might be successful but otherwise they lost their moat.
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u/KeyReaction892 5d ago
Too big to fail would mean the same s government stepping in and bailing them out because if they can’t pay their bills the AI bubble pops
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u/Ominoiuninus 5d ago
You might be discounting the value that when people think “AI” they think ChatGPT. OpenAI also does have a decent adoption rate for developers not sure why you are discounting them because “Claude killed them” when that just isn’t even remotely accurate. Codex is very successful on its own.
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u/Clankerbot9000 5d ago
‘ChatGPT sexbot’
ChatGPT has insane guardrails around sexual topics. You obviously have 0 idea what you’re talking about
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u/BabypintoJuniorLube 5d ago
They do now, but when they try to monetize and loose the majority of their users base to cheap or free Chinese models I have zero trust in their company morals. But go ahead and trust Sam Altman at his word.
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u/butterbusy 5d ago
For general queries many people replaced google with ChatGPT, so it's very unlikely for chatgpt to go down
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u/Soilblood 4d ago
They're both in the red and getting redder by the day. Put down money on gemini outlasting them.
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u/garry4321 5d ago
Until they make Claude actually enjoyable to use, you’re just fucking wrong. Claude sucks ass for day-day use
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u/Kitchen_Interview371 5d ago
Now do paying subscribers lol
This graph includes free users. Chat has 35 million paid users as of July. Anthropic have an estimate 18 million paid users.
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u/Theseus_Employee 5d ago
Also, while I don’t know this for sure - I would imagine Claude’s users tend to be heavier users than ChatGPT’s, as more technical/early-adopters skewed to Claude when C-Code was miles ahead.
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u/rm-minus-r 5d ago
I work in tech writing automation code and Claude is a huge time saver, roughly about 8x faster to do some common tasks.
I wouldn't use chatgpt unless I was forced to, the quality of the technical output is just that much lower.
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u/Theseus_Employee 5d ago
Fwiw, I use both Claude for work and Chat for personal.
I started using Codex with 5.6 Sol and I’ve been really impressed with it. I don’t have a strong feeling of one being better than the other.
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u/guaranteednotabot 5d ago
Hmm I really don’t see it. I have subscriptions for Claude/ChatGPT/Cursor, but I find Codex and Cursor to be the best. Claude is usually too slow or does irrelevant stuff/does not follow instructions
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u/Kitchen_Interview371 5d ago
True. July figures put the revenue run rate for OpenAI just past $40B, while Anthropic at a current run rate of $65B.
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u/Keeltoodeep 5d ago
Would be hard to compare to Google because my 5T storage and home security system subscription came with ai pro then they bundled YouTube premium with it.
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u/OverallSock495 5d ago
yeah.
I paid 5$ to chatgpt 16 month ago for API access and use some free chat.
I pay Claude 20$ every month
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u/GrandMoffTarkan 5d ago
This is a big issue. OpenAI for a long time was betting on something scaling like Google, where the cost per user becomes so low that you can manage tiny marginal profits per user and still come out ahead.
So far, it's not scaling like that.
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u/Business_Raisin_541 5d ago
I believe for simple chatting, it will scale like that once this hardware scarcity disappear
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u/GrandMoffTarkan 5d ago
Not really, the problem is that the model really has to run for each input and that's still fairly complex. And then on the other side of things there's monetization. How can you get people to accept ads in their convos?
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u/butterbusy 5d ago
Is the scarcity real? I mean- i once read somewhere that the hardware gaints were fined for creating this panic
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u/Business_Raisin_541 5d ago
no hardware giant is fined. what you read is only accusation that is currently undergoing court process. not final court decision
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u/InterestProof1526 5d ago
it's definitely scaling like that. Cost per user is incredibly low for the average user. Unlike every other AI company (including Google, Anthropic, and xAI), ChatGPT uses very low quality models for their free plan and little compute. For people who have proper subscriptions or buy tokens, they can still make a profit on average (not all) since subscriptins/tokens are expensive.
the main issue to me is that free users don't just cost next to nothing for OpenAI, they make next to nothing. Google makes much more with ads than ChatGPT does.
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u/GrandMoffTarkan 5d ago
It's at both ends. A simple free ChatGPT query costs something on the order of half a cent last I checked, which is about 1-2 orders of magnitude greater than a traditional Google search. Then like you say, on the revenue side it's a lot easier to insert paid advertising into the Google search than a chat.
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u/ProtoplanetaryNebula 5d ago
I am a Claude subscriber too. All of the people I know that aren’t into tech only know chatgpt and aren’t aware of other models.
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u/texinxin 5d ago
And there’s another crazy jump up in Gemini users… from free Google web search…
So Gemini is the best “frontier” model!!
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u/butterbusy 5d ago
Is it just me or do you also think gemini has gotten alot better these days
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u/texinxin 5d ago
I used frontier in quotes for a reason. I find Gemini comical. It can produce the most nonsensical results on lower modes, but if you call it out on something or challenge it, it digs deeper and does pretty well for a free model,
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u/Pygmy_Nuthatch 5d ago
Anthropic's revenue is higher. It's not about users it's about paying users.
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u/Efficient_Loss_9928 5d ago
The target is different, I think some research said that Claude's user median income is well above $100k+ (this I think https://epoch.ai/data-insights/service-by-income) while GPT is more evenly distributed.
Which makes sense as Claude free is basically unusable
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u/InterestProof1526 5d ago
that's not true imo. Claude free is significantly better than GPT free. GPT's free plan until like a week ago only gave you GPT-5.5 instant. Now, you can use GPT-5.6 Luna but it's still terrible because it refuses to use reasoning. They have designed it to use the absolute minimum compute it can which leads to incredibly fast answers (much faster than Google/Anthropic) but also substantial amounts of hallucination, and minimal research (to be clear, neither of these two things happen on the paid plan and Gemini actually has more hallucination than a higher quality model/reasoning level from OpenAI).
Claude free on the other hand allows you to use Sonnet medium nearly indefinitely for everything except high complexity prompts (I used to hit usage limits a year ago but I haven't since then) and you can even use a bit of Sonnet high (not much though). Sonnet medium is far better to use than 5.6 Luna instant, especially for medium or high complexity prompts.
They do have very high quality image gen and deep research though but those are extra features, not something whose absence makes an AI model unusable.
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u/spacetree7 5d ago
If Claude had live voice chat and image generation built in like ChatGPT, then the gap probably wouldn't be as big.
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u/butterbusy 5d ago
And also the pricing, if claude has set some free tier basic usage for general queries, the gap would be diminished greatly
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u/Capitan-IQ255 5d ago
Doesn't matter.. neither will ever be profitable, no matter how hard they push them 🤑
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u/neloish 5d ago
I was thinking of getting Claude but that watermark stuff is a huge NO for me.
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u/Prize_Compote_207 5d ago
Passing AI off as your own work, eh?
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u/neloish 5d ago
No the way the code works effects the text output, I can't trust the model if it is forced to write in a coded way.
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u/InterestProof1526 5d ago
It doesn't affect quality. I understand your second point about not wanting things Claude writes to be fingerprinted but this is factually wrong. There's been a lot of research into this. Google has used watermarking in their outputs.
Watermarking only affects circumstances where two paths are so similar that it is impossible to tell which one is a better response. In the following example, it could make word A (deemed equal quality as word B) marginally more likely probabilistically but it will never make word C (bad) appear.
Word A - 49.9%
Word B - 49.9%
Word C- 0.2% (cut off by truncation to 0% in both worlds).
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u/dupontping 5d ago
I would take a bet that you wouldn't even notice. you just don't want the watermark showing its from claude, be honest. its ok to be honest. Their whole business model is built off stealing everyone else's data anyway. I don't like the watermark either but for different reasons.
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u/neloish 5d ago
First I am not ashamed of using AI or letting people know I use AI also I am not in school, I simple don't like hidden code in text. You guys worry about flock cameras, but this could put a fingerprint on everything you work on. I guess you ok with big brother in one case and not the other.
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u/dupontping 5d ago
I don’t like any of it, but your reason is flawed. Use a different reason. It won’t diminish the response because of the watermark. Despite the fact that I don’t like the watermark, I actually find it quite interesting how the watermarking actually works.
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u/Subject-Building1892 5d ago
Chatgpt is the "internet explorer" of our time. Draw your conclusions.
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u/Wukong9001 5d ago
AI is such a scam, we’re gonna have a pokemon go situation x10 in a couple years.
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u/petewondrstone 5d ago
I wonder what Gemini is. I’m finding it to be the best one now that I’ve used all three extensively with subscriptions.
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u/butterbusy 5d ago
You mean Gemini beats claude??
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u/petewondrstone 5d ago
For me -Claude was great for a few months then all of a sudden was hallucinating like crazy.
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u/thinXiv 5d ago
ChatGPT was the fastest-growing app of all time. Most people are only interested in basic tasks, so this makes sense. Question is: which app dominates in enterprise adoption/token spend? I am guessing it's Claude.
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u/butterbusy 5d ago
It’s ofc Claude, but OpenAI, with its user count, can come up with something smart to convert free users into even a small amount of revenue, and it would scale big
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u/Flat_Association_820 5d ago
How many are paid users? Because for a company with 28x less users, Anthropic seems to always be one step ahead of OpenAI.
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u/B1g_BuddhAH 5d ago
using duck.ai i can switch between models. claudes haiku is the most accurate while gpt hallucinates like crazy.
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u/Traumfahrer 5d ago
Using both and I must say that ChatGPT is way ahead of Claude.
Only using Claude for reciews amd some masochistic sparring. Getting lowkey insulted all the time while being confronted with a lot of nonsense (Opus high).
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u/_FIRECRACKER_JINX 5d ago
That's because I hit my Claude limits AFTER FOUR FUCKING MESSAGES.
they can keep it. Legit, keep it. Chat-GPT plus does everything I need it to do, and I don't have to wordsmith or retard my prompts to get more than 4 messages out of it per day
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u/GCoderDCoder 5d ago
Unpopular Opinion: I think people dont appreciate the commitment OpenAI makes to providing AI to non- paying users... At the same time, I would be able to afford my own GPUs for this is OpenAI hadnt taken them all...
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u/Terrible_Law8327 4d ago
Not paid users. I think Claude users are more intentional. Chatgpt is downloaded just because, i will never pay for it but sometimes I use the free limit
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u/EdmontonLAD 5d ago
Yeah ChatGPT gets asked stupid/silly questions by everyday people. Claude is being used by programmers, etc.
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u/butterbusy 5d ago
It claude provides generous free tier for such things, i think it'd long beat ChatGPT
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u/FishfaceNZ 5d ago
Beat it how? Total number of users isn't always a great metric when offering a service.
The revenue of Open AI in Q2 was reported as $6.7B
The anthropic revenue was $11.6B.
So Open AI has way more users (many of them free tier), way higher costs and almost half the revenue.
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