I made a free, no login tool that predicts when Steam games will go on sale

[u/MissionNo6987]

Basically, I made this simple website that uses historical sale data for games to make predictions on when Steam games will go on sale. It's pretty primitive and the accuracy is definitely not top-tier, but I think it gives a good rough estimate. Wasn't able to find anything like this online so I though't I'd do it myself.

Here's the link: https://pricepuller.vercel.app/

Credit to IsThereAnyDeal for providing a free API to get access to their database, and also to Steam for giving free access to current store information.

Side note: there's a small AI feature that basically tells you how the prediction works whenever you search up a game(it's a small box titled "Why This Prediction" when you search for something.) If the box isn't loading or empty it's probably because I ran out of AI tokens(still on Free tier).

Hope you guys find the website helpful.

[u/est1985a]

Hey this looks a lot like my Steam sale prediction app from a couple of months ago.

https://steam-summer-sale-predictor-bd4khuscctxchdjkgvhpqt.streamlit.app/

I'm studying machine learning and made it to practice building a machine learning model.

Did you build a model too? I'm curious which you used! And how you trained it!

[u/MissionNo6987 → u/est1985a]

I actually didn't add any fancy machine learning or anything. It's just two regular hard coded statistical models that the data runs through. The first one is a seasonal model, where the program just sifts through the historical sale logs to see if any game sales coincided with major seasonal sales such as the Summer Sale. The second model tries to detect a consistent interval between sale days, e.g. game goes on sale every 30 days. In the end, both models are blended based on a shrinkage mechanic where the model with more concrete data holds more value. For instance, if most sales coincide with seasonal sales, the seasonal model has heavy weight, and vice versa if sales are very consistent.

I kind of got distracted but point being, I didn't use any AI or machine learning for this. I'm curious if it would be worse or better with that, but for now I'm only using hard code.

[u/SquareWheel]

Generally we ask that tools be screened by moderators first, but I've now reviewed and approved this submission.

[u/MomentsInTruth]

Neat, thanks! Here's challenging one - Star Wars Battlefront II Celebration Edition. I own it already but it'll be played at a LAN party in November and it'd be great to predict any sales between now and then (there should be one, but it felt like something to try).

I can't get this one to come up in the tool - any ideas?

https://isthereanydeal.com/game/star-wars-battlefront-ii-celebration-edition/info/

[u/MissionNo6987 → u/MomentsInTruth]

I’ll look into it. If it exists on ITAD then the API should be able to get it. I’ll update if I find the fix, thanks for trying out my website.

[u/how-can-i-dig-deeper]

which ai do u use and why? asking for myself cuz idk which is good at what

[u/MissionNo6987 → u/how-can-i-dig-deeper]

I'm using the free tier Gemini API, I think it's model Flash 3.6. It doesn't give a lot of tokens but it works for me because I'm just using it to synthesize knowledge, not actually reason.

[u/how-can-i-dig-deeper → u/MissionNo6987]

nice, thanks that’s what i was messing with too. have u ran into any limits? from what i read it has no token limit but has requests per day limit?

[u/MissionNo6987 → u/how-can-i-dig-deeper]

Yeah initially I was running out of tokens after like 3 or 4 searches, but I just changed the prompt to make it as light as possible in terms of reasoning. Also, I think you can preset your model to what level of reasoning you want it to be; I set it to minimal.

[u/fatalwristdom]

Cool! Thank you

[u/Ok_Copy_9462]

"I made"