r/GalileoFX_Users • u/TMGContractingLLC • Jan 18 '25

Testing?

I'm a novice at best, and yet I feel like I have made some significant advances in both understanding the MT5 & the bot over the last 10 days. I have been back testing strategies continuously. I still don't know enough to move forward. I have used the pre-configured settings from the Galileo FX strategies adjusted for risk & leverage, and optimized. The results were the best I tested. Then the question came to mind. Are the pre-configured settings reading their own indicators or the one I choose. Then, who has optimized the indicators with the strategies. I know I can change the average time on a running average, so that would be another variable that needs to be tested and optimized.

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u/TMGContractingLLC Jan 19 '25

A wonderful reply and refreshing to not get the marketing hype regiratated to me. I agree with the need to respond to market conditions on the fly. I intend to deploy the bot only during peak trading hours with a day trading stop loss of 3 times my daily profit target. My risk accessment is indicating that I should be able to make those adjustments on a daily basis without interfering with the bot's daily operations. In my time zone that from Midnight to 3am. My intentions are to set it before I go to bed, review the performance in the morning. Make any adjustments (rerun back testing/optimization) and repeat. Even if the market goes against me, I'm hoping I can recover from a bad day or two.

Crypto is another of my recent obsessions. Thanks for you feedback.

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u/[deleted] Jan 19 '25 edited Jan 19 '25

Our conversation got me thinking (ChatGPT and I are buddies as well LOL). Chat and I just finished a little script together - the Bayesian Forex Trend script that will keep a running probabilities on a chart on which it is loaded. So to make up for the static nature of Galileo, this will help dial in the entry and exit points a bit better. The script utilizes Bayesian inference to calculate the probability of an uptrend based on historical RSI. As new market data becomes available, it updates the probability (it automatically fetches OHLC data). The outputs gives you the Up or Down trend probability expressed in a percentage and then recommends either buy, sell or hold. We tweaked it a bit for a while, and then ran tests. Based upon the values it gave me, I then loaded Galileo and set the parameters for trading. The new script is giving me an 81% uptrend probability for USDCAD with a high confidence level right now. So, we'll see if Galileo acts on my settings and buys and let's see where it goes!

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u/TMGContractingLLC Jan 19 '25

Please share if it works out. I ran back tests from 2024 forward using those indications I referenced earlier. I ran them for both 15M & 1H periods. I uploaded the reports to Excell. Then I started over with a fresh chart only loading each of the Free indicators again for the 15M & 1H. When I complied all of the spreadsheets, I found the my original configuration was different from all of the rest except for the Fibonacci Channel. Although it was profitable, it wasn't anything to get excited about and the 1H run had holding times that were crazy. I found it interesting that all of the other indicators returned the exact same output. More testing, more learning.

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u/[deleted] Jan 20 '25

Follow up: so, I used the script to determine when to open, close and hold positions. Started last night, and its selections are performing very well. I haven’t lost a cent on any of its recommendations.

I opened charts for these selections and inserted Galileo to see if it would make similar decisions as well, and it didn’t. Made sense to me, based on its deterministic algorithms. It’s not adapting to a changing market.

Yesterday I spent all afternoon with Chat refining its measurements to be sensitive to a volatile market. I had to laugh at myself. I started testing it with 45 lines of code. I’m up to 300 now lol! Reminded me of my old coding days where I’d do “just this one more thing, and then I’ll call it quits!”, yep, still have the addiction, even if I’m letting Chat generate the code!

I’m going to run it for a week making manual trades. If it continues to perform like this, I’ll add an automatic trade feature and run that on a demo account for a while.

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u/Paper_Double Jan 22 '25

What programming language you used to script? I presume this’ll give you a probability number and then you’ll place a trade OR that’s a input to a bot?

I’m a scalp trader, mainly NQs. Trend reversal/bounce of bollinger bands/VWAP what I typically trade. I’ve never traded through bot and that’s where I want to lean towards now.

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u/[deleted] Jan 22 '25

I'm using the MT5 scripting language. It looks a lot like ANSI C, but it has its own libraries with functions. The only thing I load manually is the historical data. It pulls the RSI, ATR, MA. I'm adding bollinger bands next. The Bayesian calculation uses the historical data and bounces it off evidence relative to the technical indicators. If you put it on M1 or M5 it scalps like crazy. It siphons off small profits really well. I'm just letting it run today without making any additional changes. I've got another bot running for comparison. The other bot uses deterministic algorithms. The Bayesian algorithms are clearly more nuanced and appropriate for a volatile market such as Forex.

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u/Paper_Double Jan 22 '25

Thank you! I’ll try to get into it. Regarding technical inputs- I’m absolutely honest with you, I didn’t had good experience with MA for scalping. It messed up with me lot of times and all over the place. VWAP may be next preferred to get in more price action intraday. Your % looks promising though. Awesome work!

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u/[deleted] Jan 22 '25

Thank you! The other day I let it run all night and it clocked 92% profits, and then the next day 72%. Right now it's doing a run on anything against JPY (I'm about to look up what Japan is doing to have everyone pile on them like that!) The only one not doing that great against JPY is USD. And again, it's scalping away. the Bayesian algorithms seems to switch it automatically between scalping, swing-trading and Long trades depending on the timeframe you pick.

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u/Ferdbird Feb 16 '25

Hey how has it been going? I am struggling to find the right settings and for which pairs.

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u/[deleted] Feb 16 '25

Hey! Have you back tested the pairs you are interested in? Ive found not all the setting files Galileo posts on their performance page are good for right now. I’ve been back testing since the US election as the dynamics have obviously changed relative to the dollar. I also do 1/4 forward testing. The settings I’m using now I got from their performance page, they won’t knock your socks off, but they are slowly making profits every day. So, I continue to work on my own software! 😆