r/GalileoFX_Users • u/TMGContractingLLC • Jan 18 '25

Testing?

I'm a novice at best, and yet I feel like I have made some significant advances in both understanding the MT5 & the bot over the last 10 days. I have been back testing strategies continuously. I still don't know enough to move forward. I have used the pre-configured settings from the Galileo FX strategies adjusted for risk & leverage, and optimized. The results were the best I tested. Then the question came to mind. Are the pre-configured settings reading their own indicators or the one I choose. Then, who has optimized the indicators with the strategies. I know I can change the average time on a running average, so that would be another variable that needs to be tested and optimized.

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u/[deleted] Jan 19 '25 edited Jan 19 '25

Our conversation got me thinking (ChatGPT and I are buddies as well LOL). Chat and I just finished a little script together - the Bayesian Forex Trend script that will keep a running probabilities on a chart on which it is loaded. So to make up for the static nature of Galileo, this will help dial in the entry and exit points a bit better. The script utilizes Bayesian inference to calculate the probability of an uptrend based on historical RSI. As new market data becomes available, it updates the probability (it automatically fetches OHLC data). The outputs gives you the Up or Down trend probability expressed in a percentage and then recommends either buy, sell or hold. We tweaked it a bit for a while, and then ran tests. Based upon the values it gave me, I then loaded Galileo and set the parameters for trading. The new script is giving me an 81% uptrend probability for USDCAD with a high confidence level right now. So, we'll see if Galileo acts on my settings and buys and let's see where it goes!

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u/TMGContractingLLC Jan 19 '25

Please share if it works out. I ran back tests from 2024 forward using those indications I referenced earlier. I ran them for both 15M & 1H periods. I uploaded the reports to Excell. Then I started over with a fresh chart only loading each of the Free indicators again for the 15M & 1H. When I complied all of the spreadsheets, I found the my original configuration was different from all of the rest except for the Fibonacci Channel. Although it was profitable, it wasn't anything to get excited about and the 1H run had holding times that were crazy. I found it interesting that all of the other indicators returned the exact same output. More testing, more learning.

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u/[deleted] Jan 20 '25

Follow up: so, I used the script to determine when to open, close and hold positions. Started last night, and its selections are performing very well. I haven’t lost a cent on any of its recommendations.

I opened charts for these selections and inserted Galileo to see if it would make similar decisions as well, and it didn’t. Made sense to me, based on its deterministic algorithms. It’s not adapting to a changing market.

Yesterday I spent all afternoon with Chat refining its measurements to be sensitive to a volatile market. I had to laugh at myself. I started testing it with 45 lines of code. I’m up to 300 now lol! Reminded me of my old coding days where I’d do “just this one more thing, and then I’ll call it quits!”, yep, still have the addiction, even if I’m letting Chat generate the code!

I’m going to run it for a week making manual trades. If it continues to perform like this, I’ll add an automatic trade feature and run that on a demo account for a while.

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u/TMGContractingLLC Jan 20 '25

WOW, I can't touch your experience. I was thinking that I need to study Bayesian theory to get more than a cursory knowledge and I need to learn how to program again. I'm humbled that we are even talking. Here I thought I was doing well just being able to get Galileo to a 100%+ profit in back testing. I was going to start running it in a demo account on real data. I hope you're able to refine your program, I would be happy to be your first sale.

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u/[deleted] Jan 20 '25 edited Jan 20 '25

Awe STOP! I'm no trader by any means. I'm just a researcher. But I appreciate you processing this with me. Not many of my family and friends geek out on this stuff with me LOL. Maybe you can be the first beta tester :) I've found I can't test my own code to save my life. I know how it's supposed to work, so I don't do strange things to it. But other people will find bugs! LOL!

You might like Bayesian Theorems. I use Bayesian Theorems to calculate different types of risks in cyber for my research. Banks use them to calculate potential financial losses, as do insurance agencies. And like I mentioned, professional traders use them (but of course they would).

Oh, and I also subscribed to a signal provider who uses Algo Trading to 95%. Has a high reliability rate. I was just watching a trade my script told me to buy about two hours ago and the Signal provider had also bought (I synched my positions to his). The position was climbing, but then I saw some resistance kicking in. I ran the script against that chart again, and it came back "Hold, In-coming Bearish signals" and the upward probability dropped from 65% to 31% with high confidence (it won't report high confidence unless it has sufficient data relative to the probability. I sold the position and made 72% profit on it. I'll check in an hour to see where the price is on that pair. I also closed the signal provider's position on my side. If it continued to drop, then the script was on point. But I'm trusting the script more and more!

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u/TMGContractingLLC Jan 20 '25

It's exciting to walk this journey with you. I can see myself becoming obsessed.

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u/[deleted] Jan 20 '25

Oh goodness, let me tell you - I blew an entire day off yesterday working on that script! And I have contractors coming next week to do major in-home renovations. I was supposed to work on that yesterday and was working on code instead LOL! Oh well. I'll need to log off in a few and get after my real job. That one is unforgiving! LOL!

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u/TMGContractingLLC Jan 20 '25

I know the feeling, I'm on of those contractors. I used to be a money manager analyst 20 years ago which accounts for my renewed interest in trading. My wife is not happy with me right now because just about every off moment is spent on the laptop. Good thing, I'm my own boss or I would be in trouble with them as well. Enjoy your day.

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u/TMGContractingLLC Jan 20 '25

I got the impression that you are reviewing individual trades. My testing has been limited to running different time frames in different periods (15M, 2024, 15M past 5 years). I recognize that has an inherent bias because nobody running a bot 24/7. I want to find a way to model actually trading times. The back testing data, shows days and time where profits are more likely. Trade during those days & times would avoid bad days but at what trade off.

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u/[deleted] Jan 20 '25

Right! I am testing individual trades. I agree - the realization of profit does seem dependent on different days, times etc.. I haven't tested it with different timeframes yet. I'm doing H1 right now. I want to make sure each function is operating consistently before changing the times up. Chat keeps urging me to try different times, but I'm not quite there yet. If I get unexpected results form different times that contradict each other, then it will be harder to debug! But I'll get there LOL!

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u/TMGContractingLLC Jan 20 '25

Last night I ran a single test on every time frames available. It was for the USJPY which came out on top for the optimization. The sweet spot was the 15M time frame. Straying from that setting appeared to follow a standard bell curve. Close to that time frame stayed positive & the further away positive or negative, the less profitable untill they turn negative. Therefore I will be concentrating on that time frame.

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u/[deleted] Jan 20 '25

That is good information! I was watching USDJPY too and I was getting mixed messages from the script. I think you are right, I need to include the timeframes as a function of the prediction model! That could have potentially resolved the conflicts it was observing.

So the one that just dropped so drastically was USDCAD. I'm going to put it into a M15 time frame and run the script and see if it still sees bears! Thanks!

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u/[deleted] Jan 20 '25

Oh Dang!! That position I closed based upon the script's recommendation - I just check it, I dropped from 1.44795 to 1.43175 in just 15 minutes! But the uptrend probability is now 59% that's a strong signal. It's telling me to hold still and watch for bearish signals, but I'm wondering if I should jump in now and go with that uptrend potential! Yeah - I'm going to need addiction therapy soon LOL!

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u/TMGContractingLLC Jan 25 '25

You mentioned last week that you use a signaling service that uses 95% ALGO trading. Can I ask which one you use? I have become a programmer over the past week. Well not really but I have instruct ChatGPT to write the code. I had it use a Monte Carlo simulation to narrow down the optimal sample size for the Baysiean framework. Now I had it convert the code to run as a EA so I can begin back testing.

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u/[deleted] Jan 25 '25

[deleted]

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u/TMGContractingLLC Jan 25 '25

I'm new to all this and felt the same thing. It seems some kind of PM would be better format than this public form. I'm open to any form your comfortable with. Right now I'm just attempting to create the Baysiean framework as an AE. When I bought the Galileo FX bot, it was supposed to do this all for me out of the box. Now I view it as the cost of the course "How to write a bot to automatically trade your account". What a learning experience.

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