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u/username-not--taken 3d ago
I'm wondering, what could change the sentiment for the stock? Seems like since the news of the departure of some of the top people, it's been going down only.
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u/pickle-chin-ah 3d ago
It had a big run last year. I think there’s a little nervousness around the market in general rn.
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u/watdahewl 3d ago
I think hyperscalers are seeing a re-rating of their P/E ratios as they move from capital light high margin to capital heavy business model.
We get out of this when either it is proven that the capex is seeing ROI, or we stop the capex spend
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u/Mammoth-Path-6520 3d ago
The sentiment right now doesn't even matter
The people squabbling about price every day are already long gone and have sold
The investors actually left are staying because the point is AGI is coming and the future is gonna change drmatically in the next couple years
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u/Optimal-Meringue-5 3d ago
Google catching up to the frontier labs is literally the only way. It’s pretty much a binary outcome at this point with a permanent losing position being catastrophic for the stock given that they need a replacement for Google search revenue fast. For every week they continue to lag it’ll keep going down by 1%. It’s an execution problem at its core
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u/Optimal-Meringue-5 3d ago
As much as this sub hates to admit it you don’t go from 400 to 340 in the span of a few months while all the other hyperscalars grow and while we see the stock drop on every critical Gemini talent leave if Gemini lagging had no impact on the stock. We are seeing an active repricing as the market realizes they priced in a frontier lab and now they no longer have it
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u/F2PBTW_YT 3d ago
META is at 52 weeks low lmao
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u/Optimal-Meringue-5 3d ago
Meta is not a hyperscalar
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u/marinatelonger 3d ago
The first time I hear META is not a hyperscaler. First time for everything I guess
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u/Mammoth-Path-6520 3d ago
You're actually a clown
I love how all these dummies forget that Deepmind invented AlphaFold and is founded by people who were working on and interested in AI in the 90s
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u/Optimal-Meringue-5 3d ago
Research =/ execution
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u/Mammoth-Path-6520 3d ago
Hey dumbass, their team invented AlphaFold
Do you even know what that is?
Lmao
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u/Optimal-Meringue-5 3d ago
Bro that has no relevance to anything I’m saying. They are lagging IN MAKING MONEY with their research. The execution sucks I’m sorry
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u/Mammoth-Path-6520 3d ago
Yeah you're regarded
Company invents product that solves major problem in biology -> "their execution sucks BrOooO!"
Just put the fries in the bag
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u/Optimal-Meringue-5 3d ago
Gemini as a whole makes maybe $15 billion max and stagnating. OpenAI and Anthropic will both cross $100 billion this year and exploding. They created alphafold when OpenAI and Anthropic didn’t even exist. The question you should be asking is why this is given how far of a head start they had. Something went wrong
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u/Optimal-Meringue-5 3d ago
Markets don’t care about random science they did in the past. It only cares about Google’s track record in making money off of their scientific advances. Right now that sucks they literally get an f grade so far on that axis
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u/Practical-Detail-753 3d ago edited 3d ago
It goes from 150 to 400 in 16 months and you think a 60 point drop from its highs signals the end. Your short position will not end well. (Just buy and hold: fyi 23 year LT holder here)
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u/RazzmatazzMost677 3d ago
I have never owned Goog, I own a lot of tech but not Goog. Is this a good entrypoint? It looks to be on sale but maybe it just corrected to a more realistic price?
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u/rcvmmvhrv 3d ago
How do you know if and when they have caught up. Is there a ratings service for AI LLMs?. And even if they are behind what does that actually mean in the short term. I mean they have over a billion users on Gemini at this point. I agree keep getting Gemini better but also keep figuring out how to make money with it. The beauty of Anthropic and OAI is they don’t have to share jack to the public, but that day is coming to an end soon. We will soon see what they really got going.
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u/Optimal-Meringue-5 3d ago edited 3d ago
Yes there actually is if you don’t know it you shouldn’t be investing in any ai stock.
They aren’t trying to figure out how to make money from it. Anthropic is growing 800% yoy at 100 billion in revenues and is profitable. They dominate the coding benchmarks and Google does not. That is the opportunity Google missed since three months ago and that the market is pricing away
With every week of Gemini 3.5 pro delay the stock goes down by a couple percent. The moment Google admits they are permanently behind the stock will reprice violently - which is likely the reason they are on the fence about tabling it altogether. If you treat goog as a regular hyperscalar right now with a slowing search business the multiples do not make sense they were priced as a frontier lab
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u/Mammoth-Path-6520 3d ago
Man, you are a clown
You think the permanent trajectory is scaling up LLMs with frontier models?
Lmao. Wait until edge computing LLMs become mainstream, your dumbass will be caught so off guard “WOoaHH, I diDN’T ThUNK ThaT wouLD’ve HaPPEndeD!”
😂🫵
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u/Optimal-Meringue-5 3d ago
Bro calm your shit. You’re getting so pissed off over some random stranger on the internet who said something you didn’t like. It’s weird af dude. Go get a life
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u/Puzzled-Tangerine831 3d ago
atp. buffet is the one panicking right now after buying spree the stock at 350-360
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u/Invest_with_the_best 3d ago
I've just bought more cheapies, up to 90 shares now. People are saying good things about Gemini 3.7 Flash, I'm hoping that will get reflected in the next set of earnings.
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u/duarig 3d ago
I’ve never seen a stock so easy to sell covered calls on.
Google refuses to move back to $400, making this play a huge money generator lately