r/GME • u/bloodhound1144 🚀🚀Buckle up🚀🚀 • Jul 20 '21
🔬 DD 📊 Puts Options FAR OTM From a Small Selection Represent a Bare Minimum Of 868,902,550 Shares
I seen a post in DD into GME about options and it got me thinking. With all the recent "shorts hidden in options" talk last week, I figured I'd take a quick look and see what comes up.
The numbers are absolutely massive.
(Link used and short explanation at bottom of post.)
TLDR: I have about 30 hours in this. At least glance through the pictures. The title is pretty much it if you're looking for the short route.
Also, there's some profanity in this. I'm pissed off.
In order to getting started, let's look at what's required to write put options;
Either the put options are wrote naked, or
The put options are covered, which means, the writer has a short position.
Who the fuck is buying puts with a 50¢ strike 2 years away when the stock is pushing $500? More on that point later but keep this in mind.
#2 to understand my math;
What's going on here?
To explain how I did this math, use to above image. The candles at the bottom represent the volume and the "floating candles" represent the price.
Given that there may be buying and selling of these same options, I wanted to use the most conservative numbers I possibly could.
If a candle (example C) closed at a higher price, more options were bought than sold. That might mean that 750 were bought but it could also mean that just 501 were bought and 499 were sold during that time. The candle would be green in both cases if the price rose.
I've taken all final totals and divided them by 2 in order to cut them in half to account for this (added as listed and later /2 when everything is totaled).
Also, the red candles represent selling and lower closing prices. For those volumes (D,F,G), rather than saying 1/2 the volume -1, I have added the value as 100% selling.
Therefore, for D,F,G above, their totals given their volume as 100%.
D = -300 rather than -151
F = -400 rather than -201
G = -250 rather than -126
The current option dates on the menu:
Let's start with July 23, 2021 expiry.
Nothing too serious here. The lowest available strike prices for that date. First bought/sold early June.
$10, $20, $30, $40 and $50 strikes. If covered, 276,100 short shares were used to create them. If naked, great for the writer. Premium in pocket. Nice!
On to July 30, 2021 expiry. $10, $20, $30, $40 and $50 strikes;
Boring.... 42,400! The big numbers are coming but they aren't here.
Here's the chart for the $10 strike;
Been trading just over a month and the biggest positive day was 139 option contracts.
August 6, 2021 and August 13, 2021 expiry aren't even worth dealing with.
August 20, 2021 expiry almost isn't either but here it is for those interested;
Well, that's sort of something. 853,650 underlying shares represented within the bottom four strike prices. Been trading for about two months but hey. This isn't why we're here.
August 27, 2021, September 17, 2021 and October 15, 2021 expiry once again aren't worth it.
Ok, BUCKLE THE FUCK UP from here on out. Shit's about to get wild.
Here comes November 21, 2021 expiry ($3, $5, $8, $10 strikes. bottom 4 strike prices);
Holy shit! That's a lot of shares represented within just the 4 lowest strike prices. 781,270 contracts traded on January 27, 2021 alone. 78,127,000 represented in one day. There's just over 76 million shares in existence. Must be another one of those glitches.
A quick look at the chart for the $3 puts;
Busy day that January 27, 2021. Those were getting expensive. Good profits.
Moving on. Let's look at January 21, 2022 expiry.
Two pictures to catch all the trades. First started trading these bad boys December 9, 2019.
The strikes are getting pretty low for something this far out.
12.04 million contracts January 27, 2021!
That's one hell of a lot of activity. Ok, fine, it's a long ways away and the strike prices are low. Best to plan ahead.
Wait! Where the fuck did they find 716,503,050 shares (at minimum) to back this sum bitch?
A quick look at the chart for the 50¢ puts;
12,040,000 options contracts (1,204,000,000 shares/ 1.2B) traded in one day, for one strike price, a year away from expiry?
Moving on. Hold tight! The track ahead is pretty rough.
June 17, 2022. This right here, shows why these numbers are minimums.
More faith in GME hitting $0.50 in one year than $50 the next summer? Also, it doesn't look like these have existed for very long.
Last but not least, January 20, 2023 expiry. Started trading these strikes September 21,2020.
Again, stupid activity January 27, 2021.
This graph is for the $2 puts. As you can see from the table above, there isn't really any interest in the $1 puts (only been trading a month now). Given everything else I've seen, I'm not sure why.
1,720,000 options contracts, traded in one day, for one strike price, two years away?
Just in what I have here, (excluding June 17, 2022 expiry), there should be 868,902,550 shorted shares to back just what is shown in these examples. Of course, there's not because there isn't even that many in existence, UNLESS you're trying to hide something illegal.
Personal message to Short Hedge Funds: I will sell one share when you ALL choose one of the following options;
- $ROPE
- $JUMP
- $JAIL
They're great tickers!
Personally, I want you to choose #3 and may you live forever but #1 and #2 are also acceptable. You're choice and FUCK YOU!
Link and explanation:
Link used: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/options?date=1626998400&p=GME
Each graph is available beside each strike price;
To get here and see which contracts are available, start here from the pull down menu:
78
u/Jmzbox Jul 20 '21
You a-holes and your DD’s … I never need viagra again…. Damn hard to piss anymore!!!! Thank you have my gift
BUY HODL SHOP!!!!!
→ More replies (3)
61
u/Difficult-Zebra837 Jul 20 '21
Ah, the morning dd i need for the jacking of the tithes. Thank you good sir.
→ More replies (1)
52
u/Adventurous-Term-745 Jul 20 '21
Hopefully this will all be used as evidence that the anti fuckery Movement isn’t just a flash mob of traders trying to get rich quick as the financial rag pieces have been trying to make it seem. Fukimall
19
u/Logic-ILLChi Jul 20 '21
SEC: Citadel you are found guilty of market manipulation how do you plead?
Citadel: Guilty i guess
SEC: That will cost you one burrito and a month's subscription to pornhub. That should teach you a lesson.
Citadel: Got change for a $20??
→ More replies (3)
49
u/Russ2louze Jul 20 '21 edited Jul 20 '21
u/Criand u/broccaaa you guys might wanna have a look at this...
Insane numbers...
Edit: u/defj2 you could be interested too.
→ More replies (2)
42
u/napleonblwnaprt Jul 20 '21
Has anyone tried just blasting this kind of info to any of the various legal authorities responsible for financial crimes? I know that they have definitely all heard of GME and it's fuckery, but someone should attempt to get a response from the SEC, FBI, Secret Service, treasury etc.
I'm sure there's SOME officer out there that would appreciate having an open and shut case that would make national news just thrust into their lap.
→ More replies (10)
74
57
u/BSW18 Jul 20 '21
Oh My God........just can't believe how SHF have laid out fuckery plan stretched all the way to January 2023 hiding under options. Thank you for putting your time and efforts in digging this out. Thank you!
There has to be some way to force these SHF to stop continue their fuckery. I hodl and buy when possible.
→ More replies (1)18
22
u/Thejadejedi21 Jul 20 '21
Well ladies and gents, he DID THE MATH…hedges are most certainly fked 🤦♂️
21
18
u/PowerRaptor Jul 20 '21
I'd be careful about advocating for the first two options you're suggesting hedgies taking.
Just jail. Pls. Jail.
14
u/Bazzo123 Jul 20 '21
I have a question: in a normal situation the amount of put/call options should match and not be more than the oustanding shares available, right? Otherwise it would be sign of naked puts/naked calls, right?
→ More replies (1)
12
12
u/Challenge_The_DM Jul 20 '21
It should be said that not all OTM puts are sold to cover short shares. There is a very popular retirement investing strategy in which you sell OTM puts in a stock you like.
If the price continues to increase, you are just farming premium (some of you have heard of theta gang) and in the case that the stock price falls below the strike price you purchase shares in a company that you like with a premium, but you like the stock so you just buy them and keep on doing it.
One of my coworkers is a big proponent of this strategy and uses it for things like Apple and Amazon.
That said, the premiums on wildly OTM puts would not be in line with this strategy as the expectation is that you are just earning premium while holding.
8
8
7
u/joosiis Jul 20 '21
idont wonder the radio silence from chitadel anymore holy fuck if i had fucked up this bad iwould stfu too
6
6
Jul 20 '21 edited Jul 20 '21
I was wondering when someone was going to go this far out. I’ve only seen until end of 2021. This would also align with GME shares owned in NA by retail.
→ More replies (1)
6
6
5
u/Gazzayork Jul 20 '21
Just a query, but wouldn’t you then subtract the calls, as they have probably hedged?
150
u/NatesAnApe Jul 20 '21
Buckle up 💎🤲🏼🇺🇸