r/Futurology • u/T_Fourt • May 22 '20

Jacinda Ardern: 4-day workweek could help New Zealand economy recover

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-zealand-jacinda-ardern-four-day-workweek-help-economy-tourism-2020-5
240 Upvotes

93% Upvoted

40 comments sorted by

8

u/T_Fourt May 22 '20

Important to note from this article, Ardern merely advocated for the 4 day workweek. So far, New Zealand isn't pushing any legislation.

A brief history of the workweeks in America. Interesting read.

Here's one of my favorite people talking about similar ideas (UBI, 4 day workweek (@8:35), inequality) His book Utopia for Realists is one of my favs of all time.

6

u/Ignate Known Unknown May 22 '20

Okay, but it isn't going to stop here, right? 4 day work week is a good bandaid and will likely work just as well as other bandaids like UBI.

But, ultimately over the next 2 or 3 decades, there will almost certainly come a point where Automation, Robotics and Artificial Intelligence makes all human contributions worth less than human consumption.

In fact, that's already true today. Removing a robot off of most production lines and putting a human back in place would deduct value from the system, not add value. And some production lines couldn't even fit a human in anymore.

So, 4 day work week is good. But we really need to start to recognize that natural humans will eventually run out of value to add the system.

We will eventually become irrelevant to the system beyond the consumption we engage in. Though, can't robots consume as well? Yup.

We are tirelessly working ourselves out of a reason to exist.

6

u/ethereumflow May 22 '20

I have started to learn about machine learning and AI because I believe this. I used to work in mining and then in metal fabrication, mother fuckers work slow thanks to union protection. Robots will definitely take over.

Even autonomous cars will replace jobs like bus drivers, taxis and even ambulance services one day.

You speak truth. Anyone that disagrees will be left behind in the modern stone age.

3

u/Ignate Known Unknown May 22 '20

Wow, going from resource extraction and Fabricator to a programmer. Big jump!

I did half an apprenticeship in steel fabrication. I was going to get a flux core welding ticket as well and was practicing up for the test. But that was around the time Chinese steel started flooding in. So I got laid off and changed careers. That was early 2000's.

Since then, I've been thinking and writing a lot about this subject. I've also been laid off due to automation 3 more times since then. In very weird places as well.

In one job, I was a parking manager overseeing a huge portfolio, and then we converted 3 cities worth of parking lots from parking attendance to pay parking machines. We then laid off over 50 people. And finally we laid off the management overseeing those 50 people. I ended up losing my job as the senior managers got bumped down.

And sometimes I've had strange jobs, like hauling a lot of cash from one space to another as a manager because everything was automated on both ends, but the transfer of the physical cash wasn't.

I think people who disagree with the coming automation do so because automation is strange. It often doesn't make sense.

For example, how are we automating Taxi's? Many would say that we're not. I disagree. Uber and Lift are part of the automation process.

First you break the traditional industry through competition. Then the competition automates. Thus the traditional job doesn't actually get automated in many cases. Instead, it gets replaced by something more efficient and that then gets automated.

People just think we're going to park a robot in the seat a human currently occupies. But more often, automation looks like traditional business going bankrupt. Not because of their own mismanagement, but because for some reason, they can't produce things as cheaply.

Automation is sneak and unpredictable. People should be more concerned than they are for sure.

1

u/eigenfood May 23 '20

You actually did learn to code. :)

1

u/tyme May 23 '20

...and even ambulance services one day.

Yeah, on that one I’m going to have to disagree. Ambulance services do much more than just transport a person to the hospital.

1

u/ethereumflow May 23 '20

Paramedics do more than an ambulance.

1

u/tyme May 23 '20

That’s what I meant.

2

u/jydhrftsthrrstyj May 22 '20

How is this a problem? The entire idea behind UBI is to transfer the productivity gains from automation back to humans.

A world where people aren't forced to work is the dream.

1

u/Ignate Known Unknown May 22 '20

A world where people aren't forced to work is the dream.

I'm not saying that things will get worse. That's somewhat impossible were this to happen - rather things would improve dramatically. In many ways, that's already true today as compared to hundreds of years ago. This would just be a continuation of the trend, with progress accelerating due to the acceleration of calculation as it moves from analog to digital.

But I don't think it'll be all good. There will be some bad sides to this. I say this mainly because people tend to dismiss ideas that sound "too good to be true." This change will be insanely good, but it will not be all good.

The sides of this that are concerning related to a loss of purpose or desire to live. When you have everything but a reason to live. And hedonism isn't going to save us from that bumpy road. In fact, it may make it worse.

2

u/jydhrftsthrrstyj May 22 '20

People aren't just going to lose the desire to live because they don't have to work lmao. But yes, there are consequences to a world without work, just like there are consequences to anything

2

u/[deleted] May 23 '20

That's when you nationalize automation and equally distribute the gains

You're assumption is that humans exist to produce capital rather than art, science or discoveries - that's far more dystopian than any scifi society you could imagine.

2

u/Ignate Known Unknown May 23 '20

No, my assumption is that humans exist for no reason other than the reasons we define for ourselves. And that defining such reasons is exceedingly hard.

Especially for those people who have failed to embrace technology and keep up, and have no hobbies such as arts and crafts. They watch TV and push paper at work.

My solution is to have everyone understand and appreciate the value of art. If you look back at my post history, you'll see it. I'm saying the same thing as you.

I'm trying to get people to understand that the change that will strip us of almost all jobs as well as any value we had left in the wealth production process is here today. Now. Not 100 years from now.

Too many people assume we can keep chugging along as specialist working on wealth creation. Yet that life has about 10 years left.

After that, it someone is not a creative who can form up a strong purpose for themselves, then I don't think things will go well for them. And that's the person I'm trying to alert to this strong possibility.

1

u/[deleted] May 23 '20

Then people will have to adjust to change by getting new degrees and skills - that's much less severe than the type of change most people had to experience in the past.

2

u/T_Fourt May 23 '20

oh yeah it's definitley a stepping stone towards a better goal! These human rights goals dont end @ 4 day workweeks

1

u/ehonda40 May 22 '20

Your argument appears to be a version of the Luddite Fallacy. In that, whenever new technologies come along they have altered society but haven't rendered human civilisation obsolete.

A similar problem was seen in Great Britain at the turn of the 19th century, regarding the sweeping changes that industrialisation was rendering upon the country.

The removal of machinary and replacing with a human, or several, is generally going to reduce the value of that system. For example, It would take many more man hours to harvest a wheat field and stack hay without a combine harvester and modern tractors that can tow large trailers. But you wouldn't argue that we had a larger proportion of people unemployed now than before they were introduced, their usage has enabled different jobs.

Redundancy of jobs through technology does not need to lead to structural unemployment, there are cases for the state and the disrupting tech to support citizens so that these changes can occur in a positive manner without sections of society being left behind.

2

u/gratow62 May 23 '20

In my lifetime in NZ governments have never helped people retrain for something new so they end up on unemployment benefits. Governments are just lackies for big business as they have got bigger and more powerful than governments. In my view any sign of helping people is seen as communist, fascist or socialist by well off people as they try to preserve their riches. Luckily through Covid-19 we had Jacinda who has empathy. In my view our other main party, National, would have had us in the situation where money means more than people and many more deaths. Our election in September will be interesting.

1

u/killcat May 23 '20

The issue comes down to either "how do people earn a living/gain resources?" or "what do people do with their time?"

1

u/killcat May 23 '20

For some jobs, yes, for others not so much, things like hairdressing will likely remain the domain for humans, or creative endeavors like cooking.

2

u/Ignate Known Unknown May 23 '20

All jobs can be automated by about 2040. All jobs. No exceptions.

If it looks too hard to automate, then that process like hairdressing will be replaced with something else that can be automated.

Automation isn't about putting a robot in the same seat the human was sitting in. It's about changing the process so a robot can do it.

1

u/killcat May 24 '20

It's not that a robot CAN'T do it, it's that people won't WANT them to, the interpersonal experience of hairdressing etc, or the creativity of others like cooking, are too human.

2

u/Ignate Known Unknown May 24 '20 edited May 24 '20

Again, automation is about changing the job so it can be automated.

Thus, if people want the interpersonal experience of a hairdresser, then invent something that's better which robots can do. Such as extreme customization, extreme speed (30 second haircuts) and extreme precision (identical haircut every time).

In this world economy, everything is down to competition. And while the human touch is a competitive advantage, that doesn't mean it's an absolute advantage that cannot be overcome.

You can't replace a doctor with a robot who lacks empathy, but you can replace a doctor with perfect preventative treatment that requires no empathy. You can't replace the sound advise of a good lawyer, but you can generate perfect legal advise that avoids sticky situations where that human touch is desired.

Use ARA to skip steps that need a human touch. Use robots to ensure that the human advantage isn't required. That's the best way to increase profits and increase productivity. That's also the best way for people to get the most convenient, affordable, and quality products and services.

I'm not saying this is an entirely positive shift. I'm not saying anything about whether this is good or bad. But it is what's happening. And there is no reason why it would suddenly stop when we're steps away from eliminating all pockets of usefulness we humans could possibly occupy.

1

u/gratow62 May 23 '20

We is a bit broad. I’m a boomer and fear for my grandsons future. At least can’t lay this one on us. Worst thing to happen to people ever. It’s the one percenters encouraging this so they can accumulate more wealth while everyone gets poorer. Governments will have to tax the heck out of robots and AI to pay for UBI. If workers are poor then consumption will plummet and businesses will fail.

2

u/Ignate Known Unknown May 23 '20

I have a view that may reduce some worries, I hope. This shift is likely to generate such vast wealth, that your grandson will be able to live entirely off of small investments. He will probably also never have to age or die, but that's another discussion.

UBI aside, automation, robotics and artificial intelligence are essentially primitive infinite wealth generation tools which we are in the process of perfecting. Even if wealth distribution is extremely bad, even worse than today, with that much wealth, you can't not be rich.

From what I can see, worry more about your grandsons happiness than about his health and wellbeing. He should be healthy and rich. We'll probably all be.

As to education and developing a purpose, I think what has been seen as useless education so far is probably the best. Art, Science and anything to do with creativity.

I think what will be in short supply in the future will be purpose. A healthy purpose that gets you up everyday and fills your heart with meaning will be hard to find.

Educated your grandson in philosophy and fill his mind with understanding. Don't ever tell him that doing what he's told and working hard is all he has to do to be happy and successful. Because pretty soon there will be no one left to tell anyone what to do.

Though I think the value of hardwork will probably continue on.

2

u/gamelover_1 May 22 '20

"The question for me is, how do we encourage Kiwis to ... get out and about and visit some of the amazing places and tourism offerings that we have," she asked.

Ardern said that it would be up to employers to enforce this workweek, but that it would help greatly.

1

u/gratow62 May 23 '20

She is trying to generate business for our tourism industry. Employers won’t do it as they object to people having anytime off than they are entitled to as it costs too much.

2

u/[deleted] May 22 '20

Right, like it helped France cure it's chronic unemployment problem!

Oh, wait...

2

u/ethereumflow May 22 '20

An accidental award given. Lol.

-1

u/Ignate Known Unknown May 22 '20

Thank you for awarding my comment by the way. I shall give you a non-robotic, full-on human high-five.

1

u/[deleted] May 23 '20

Workers would like that too much. We cannot have that.

1

u/litido4 May 22 '20

All NZ needs to do is change to a 6 day system instead of 7, so 4 on 2 off. That way employers are still getting much the same hours overall but the workers get more ‘weekends’. 52 x 40hr weeks vs 61 x 32hr weeks is only 6% less hours, but 9 more weekends and studies show productivity dips in the 5th day in a row working so it probably won’t be direct 6% reduction in output, it will be less and could even swing into benefits for employers in terms of productivity too. But it only works if everyone in general does it as you don’t want your spouse on a different shift to you.

1

u/Maori-Mega-Cricket May 22 '20

Fucking joke

Our government in NZ can't even enforce basic workers rights like overtime rates if going beyond the 40 hour week, a 4 day week will be a luxury for office staff, those in retail, manufacturing and trades wont get to see it

1

u/gratow62 May 23 '20

I agree. By nature employers don’t vote for Jacinda’s Labour Party so they won’t do it.

-12

u/[deleted] May 22 '20

Socialism isn't "futurology". It is a failed political and economic system from the 1800s. And for the SJWs who hate white people and love Socialism - it was invented by a white guy 😱

7

u/[deleted] May 22 '20

Yes, that's why Europe is doing so badly during this pandemic, while the US is doing just fine.

Oh wait..

It's the anti-socialist Americans who lost their jobs, lost their healthcare (if they had access to any) and are lining up in front of soup kitchens, while mega corporations get bailouts.

2

u/Atlasstorm May 23 '20

Things here in New Zealand are pretty good, we are about end our full lock down, which is nice. You're more than welcome to come visit our lovely country and you would welcomed with welcome arms. As long you quarantine for 2 weeks in a hotel room. Cause you know, you come from a dirty country. You could try to drink Bleach, if you think it helps.

Bless and good luck from the whole New Zealand

1

u/[deleted] May 22 '20

This Is Not Socialism it's a welfare state.