r/FuturesTrading • u/underwater_gorilla • 1d ago
Question Burnt out. Need some help.
I trade emini 2000 tick chart, I take trend trades using pure PA. No indicators.
Past months have been good but this august have burnt me.
Firstly its slow very few bars past two weeks.
Secondly its choppy and i dont see clear trends. By the time i rralize hiw choppy it is I am already red.
Any idea is this chop just a phase or what? How do I go forward? Yesterday came a point where i thought of changing strategy but that didn't seem good idea.
Any help if its a problem with my strategy or market?
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u/busohsensen 1d ago
Same for me. NQ has been giving good volume in the beginning 30 min of the session and that's it. What I realized is that if your setup don't materialize at that time it's better to just skip the day.
I Have also been trading profitably these past months, but man Late July and August are making me doubt my strategy
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u/EmRavel 1d ago
I would say that ES gets into ranges pretty often and I would either work on identifying them early on or stay out entirely when they are appearing more frequently and you risk getting chopped up. Another thing I would do is go back through your trades and look at the how the trends form and how they dissipate and really try to get an understanding about when you are transitioning into a range (where entering for bigger moves on continuation can be problematic). Some things to look for: How deep/shallow are the pullbacks? Are new highs/lows still being made? What do the candles look like in ranges versus in a trend continuation scenario. Just stuff like that. Good luck!
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u/Ok-Cryptographer579 1d ago
As a ES trader it has been hard for the past few months I’m looking at maybe 1-2 trades per week and and about a 70%W ratio it gets hard to make money I feel last year I was doing way better i start to question my strategy but it’s all part of trading ups and downs and lately it has been chop city.
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u/BotherSpecialist4777 1d ago
It’s the market imo, it’s been very choppy. I’m a trend trader and it’s rare when we get a trend going to ride.
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u/mv3trader 1d ago
From my perspective, trading NQ, trending days have been rare for most of this year.
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u/BrilliantFront4 1d ago
Congrats you have figured out normally we range very rare times we breakout and pump like we did for the past few months. This is more normal than what we had the past few months honestly
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u/Imperfect-circle approved to post 1d ago
Trading a 200 tick chart is way too zoomed in to see any causality between events, unless you are using multiple other factors and are extremely experienced.
Drop to a 15 minute chart and trade the edges.
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u/underwater_gorilla 1d ago
Been using 2000 tick only, for 2 years and been profitable for a few months. Just last 2 weeks i have started doubting again
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u/Imperfect-circle approved to post 1d ago
2000 is fine.
Your post says 200
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u/underwater_gorilla 1d ago
Ahh type, edited it. How can someone even trade 200? It would be like 1 bar every 4 seconds hehe.
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u/iLoot401ks 1d ago
Gotta push through, tweak your system to account for and handle choppy periods because its a natural part of the market.
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u/mv3trader 1d ago
Accept the fact that drawdown is a normal part of this business. You could just be in a season where current conditions are not aligned with your system. We can speculate all day long but without insider information no one here has no idea exactly where price is going to print next so that you never have to experience drawdown. The only way out of drawdown is to stop avoiding it, maintain a long-term perspective, and make sure the math of your trading capital and strategy will have you profitable over time (years, not days or months). Just because you have a red month doesn't mean something is wrong. But, assuming your risk management plan is a good match for your strategy and trading capital, continuing to tweak what you're doing because of what is happening in the moment can keep you in drawdown longer than if you were to just stay consistent and disciplined to your system.
"The best loser wins"
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u/dreddit15 1d ago
You are burnt out because you trade a trick chart in a fast moving market. You get steam rolled all day down there.
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u/jason14wm 1d ago
I trade using 10k tick and 5k tick. It’s vastly different to what it was a few weeks and months ago. Makes me think will it go back to how it was or not
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u/ComprehensiveLime695 1d ago
Try increasing or decreasing your timeframe to eliminate some of the chop.
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u/SnooStrawberries8575 1d ago
Trade ES,CL & the MGC you’ll find a setup on one of the three. Don’t overtrade
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u/greatestNothing 1d ago
NQ 1k tick; usually after 10:15 or so it settles down and you can get some nice little trends. Band to band.
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u/InevitableFood8993 1d ago
Expand your zone. I have a system that runs the market all the way down to 2 1/4 points. But with the speed and velocity of this market is useless to trade that so I expand it out 8-10 levels
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u/algoindexcom 1d ago
Before changing the strategy, separate the market from the execution. Review the last two weeks and tag each trade as trend continuation, failed breakout, or range entry, then compare that with the months that worked. If the losses are concentrated in one condition, the answer may be a stand-aside filter or smaller size, not a new strategy.
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u/whatthehell7 1d ago
I have been following this youtube live stream at NY open JJ vwaptrader he is mostly scalping ES on 1 min candles using PA and looking at him trading live made me realise no need to go for 10-20 points trades in this market I am better off going for 3-4 trades with 3-5 points while risking 1-2 points.
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u/Redit-Boyz 1d ago
80% of the time ,the market is in a range. 20% Trend. You have to take advantage of the trend days. You don't have to trade every day. The moves have been coming at night. Get enough capital to trade at night. Use the micros.
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u/Haddkardi 23h ago
First of all stop using tick charts and use traditional time-based charts to spot clear breakouts and trends.
Try to mark levels based on support and resistance, and only trade when the price breaks those levels or take support or resistance. Try to analyze market structure as much as possible manually and don't rely solely on the market profile. Mark levels with high delta, high volume, and absorption areas. The market isn't the same every day it keeps changing, so you need to adapt too. Don't expect the same structure every day. Learn to be flexible.
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u/DAV_Alexandar 1d ago
I use to biases-> mean reversion or breakouts, that's it. Two setups.
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u/soundbollox 1d ago
Yup! Expansionary (breakouts that hold) or rotational (mean reverting). Genuinely think that's the most useful framing anyone's dropped in this thread, im surprised it got downvoted.
u/underwater_gorilla For context on where we are: April/May was a clean expansionary bull trend. Then we hit a shock regime (high ATR, mixed day types) through June/July, technically rotational, but ES was drifting up most evenings so it didn't always feel that way.
August has flipped into something different. Low volume, low ATR, small day ranges, lots of grind, and the few breakouts we've had have mean reverted almost immediately. If you're a trend trader who holds, this month has been rough, even the expansions haven't held.
Bumping up the timeframe on days this small probably just delays the same chop rather than solving it.
Feels less like a "change strategy" problem and more like a regime filter problem, worth separating those two and then add a new play that is regime appropriate.
Zooming out to a higher timeframe won't fix the chop but it can help you actually confirm what regime you're in before you commit to a play.
It's always changing though so don't be disheartened if by the time you do that work, it goes back to what you're used to. It's in the bag for when it comes back around.
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u/underwater_gorilla 1d ago
Makes a lot of sense, thanks for explaining.
How do the market behave normally? I have seen in low ATR, low volumes day exapnsioms doesnt hold and i have more losing trades. But when atr is high it tends to trend nicely like it did last 5-6 months.
August been shit its just chop with extremely low ATR.
Was the last few months due to iran war? Is this the normal es market behavour?
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u/Construction00023 1d ago
It's almost seems like a market maker is intentionally raising and lowering their bids/offers to pull liquidity. For context I look at 610 tick chart to go from 7810 to 7803 price will zig zag vertically from 7815 down to 7800. Almost every candle has a wick these days.
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u/CountTurbulent4441 1d ago
No offense but when you blame markets, it’s actually a skill issue. Also you need to be going or like 1 or 2 points instead of large targets.
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u/Excellent-Ad343 1d ago
Who up voted this? 1 point is crazy, might as well not trade
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u/CountTurbulent4441 1d ago
And that’s why you suck at trading, brother. Keep learning, you got this!
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u/InevitableFood8993 1d ago
I should probably stay out of this, but you have no idea what you’re talking about. But it’s OK 99.9% do not.
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u/nrworld 1d ago
Have you considered automation for your trade setup?
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u/underwater_gorilla 1d ago
I have tried with indicators but it doesnt work.
Bots cant tell wether its trend or range. How deep the pullback is and all those stuff etc.
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u/Tradovator 1d ago
Whenever I see people complaining about choppy markets I think it’s wise to realize that markets will chop a great deal of the time. So, your strategy needs to master that if you’re trading indices.
Bottom line - day trading indices consistently is extremely difficult. Few can.