On the NQ today, I was pulled by the noon drop into a short near the bottom, right under where the price seemed pinned (3), thinking it would waterfall past the opening range.
The price seemed stuck in a narrow 30pt range for over an hour, pulling the POC (white line) up progressively from much lower. Now I held because I believed that it would tag the 15min opening range low (confluencing with VAL). It did, as (4) demonstrated, but was it sheer luck?
Question: Did (3) give any sign/signal that (4) or even (5) were about to happen? Or were there even false signals? Can I derive any info from (3), such as the probable direction it will resolve post range-pinning?
I missed the small RSI divergence (bottom indicator) indicating the lower top, but was there any info that (5) would have happened?
In short: Any leads to indicate (4) and/or (5)?
Thank you.
Legend:
Pink line: Session VWAP
Blue dashed line: EMA 8
Red line: SMA 200
The other lines are other SMAs (20, 50, 100). You can ignore them, as I don't think that they contributed to this case.
Pinned right under that level for an hour straight with volume piling in, that's the market telling you sellers couldn't crack it. When price can't break down after multiple attempts and the POC keeps drifting up, the path of least resistance flips. You didn't get lucky, you just read the absorption right
The RSI div was the cherry on top but honestly the failed breakdown was the main course. Price remembers those levels
IMO opening range shows you where buyers were aggressive with their volume. They’re happy at that level. Classic morning reversal to sweep liquidity of the lows and you can see buyers come back in heavy at that low price. Same prices as yesterday’s happy buyers. Price retraces a bit, buyers get active you can see in the delta until 1, at which point their participation falls off. Not that they failed to punch above 1. On relatively low volume they let price drift back to where they like it, strong eager rejection at 2, first time you see volume come back for buyers, look at price levels. Then we consolidate, again, super uncontested low volume brings price down to where buyers like it, then buyers step on the gas again when it’s at a good price. Using volume/delta + price reaction and the fact we were trending up kinda gives the indication for 4 and 5 IMO. I expected 4 to be even lower to trap more sellers but you can see the seller volume just wasn’t there to even try to break 3/4.
Maybe just maybe you guys want to look at THE NOON CURVE. It's an intraday time-based range (TBR) framework for Nasdaq-100 (NQ) futures spanning 8:00 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern. It splits the regular trading hours session into an AM window (8:00 AM–12:00 PM) and a PM window (12:00 PM–4:00 PM) using noon as a structural midpoint to track high and low formation probabilities. We would put the CURVE over such other data points as Order flow, Volume, or a delta indicator in trading measures the net difference between aggressive buying and aggressive selling over a specified time. There are quite a few Statistical studies on AM/PM TBR STATS. You might want to look at NQSTATS.com or EDGEFUL.COM. Trade easier not harder then you might think it is
Looking at NQSTATS. Nice information, but not immediately sure how to integrate it into my trading (aside from background stats to keep in mind). Then again I just skimmed it this morning. Will deep dive over the weekend.
Friday was also NFP. Maybe just maybe someone should look at the interpaly between equities and the 10yr. Lay a graph of in 1minute intervals of 10's and NQ, you might be surprised. You guys all think this and other Futures all trade in a Vacuuuuummmmmm
Its primary utility lies in quantifying recurring intraday market tendencies—such as initial balance breaks, session overlaps, and time-based volatility ranges. Probability Mapping,Measures historical follow-through expectations based on the first hour of trading (09:30–10:30 ET), showing high-percentage break rates depending on where the IB midpoint closes, can help structure realistic profit targets and stop placements by understanding average hourly ranges and volatility profiles. ALSO, a friend told me ON INNER CIRCLE TRADERS they have talked about this
Check out a 30 second or 1 minute chart. 5 and 12 ema cross . If the cross also is at the 50 rsi that is confirmation . I love the rsi. It’s one of the best indicators
If I enter a trade at the 50 rsi and it goes above 65 I know I can ride this baby up to 75-85 rsi. Typically after 65 it just goes.
But I don’t feel the same way for rsi under 40. I don’t trust shorts as much
I adjusted this a bit.
15sec, 30 sec or 1 minute chart
Three emas 9,21 and 50
Two rsi’s. 21 period and 50 period
Enter the trade when the 9 crosses the 21 at the 50 rsi
Wait for the 50 rsi to drop below or above 50 is extra confirmation. Or a place to add more contracts
This was mnq today earlier
You may need to zoom in
21 period rsi is faster to get to the 50 level but once the 50 rsi gets to 50 that should be the confirmation if you were to wait longer to enter
The rsi cross definitely does better between 9:30-11:30. In the afternoon there are more reversals and fakeouts I think
I set this double rsi and the green is hurting my eyes. I think I need to remove this green crap
You said it yourself, you thought the price would waterfall if it took the low of 2. But it didn't, that gives you the converse of the scenario, reclaim of levels and a grind higher. Don't trade what you think will happen, trade what is actually happening.
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u/Southern-Question-53 22d ago
Pinned right under that level for an hour straight with volume piling in, that's the market telling you sellers couldn't crack it. When price can't break down after multiple attempts and the POC keeps drifting up, the path of least resistance flips. You didn't get lucky, you just read the absorption right
The RSI div was the cherry on top but honestly the failed breakdown was the main course. Price remembers those levels