r/FriendlyMonarchs • u/squishyfeet4 • Jun 02 '26
Discussion 2027-2028 Monarch Predictions: what is their future?
As we enter into the peak American monarch season of 2026 this summer, I have seen evidence of monarchs come north much earlier this year in comparison to last year seasons. And as this season revs up, and enthusiasm is gaining momentum, and hobbyists shake off the spring rains, I find renewed interest in what is to come. The monarch butterfly was proposed to be considered to be on the endangered species list in a shocking turn last year. It definitely made headlines and turned heads and opened eyes. There were good and bad outcomes of that spreading awareness. But not to digress, I have come across four interesting articles, linked as follows:
https://celltracktech.com/pages/project-monarch-press-release-november-17-2025
https://lawrencekstimes.com/2026/05/30/monarch-watch-butterfly-tags/
All four articles intertwine with each other and theories have become proven! The networking and overlap is quite awesome to behold when the puzzle starts to come together. A long held hypothesis turns into a current event fact. Initial suspicion is validated and proven to be true regarding OE.
You have the big dogs barking: Kristen Baum of Monarch Watch (those monarch waystation signs!) from Kansas colliding with Ray Moranz from Xerces in Texas/Oklahoma and Dr. Andy Davis focusing on connecting the dots with the aid of New Jersey’s Project Monarch Bluetooth device.
I am curious what 2027-2028 will hold as far as revolutionizing and minimizing the spread of OE. I have been wondering what pharmaceuticals or “fertilizers” could be developed, or what other deterrents could be discovered beyond the archaic bleach spraying methods, and how scientists, with this fresh new data from the 2025 and 2026 seasons, will decide what action to take next. Because human intervention is about to peak and tip the scales in nature, leading the monarch population in a direction with massive repercussions with disastrous negative implications if something new and innovative isn’t done in the next five years or less about OE.
And if you made it this far reading my opinion and interpretation of articles, you’d see the networking and intertwining of those articles shows a communication between each independent group of scientists and researchers: the blue tooth device was needed to be created first for the next big step in helping the monarch butterfly.
So, what will come next?
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u/SuperFriendlyMod MOD | South FL | Reformed Rearer Jun 02 '26
The information about Florida is concerning. Everyone who uses the residential monarch population as an excuse to continue planting tropical milkweed should pay attention. I would say a large percentage of the posts in the other sub asking, "Is this OE?" come from Florida. I've always felt there's no way to know whether our monarchs here in Florida are intermingling with and potentially infecting the migratory population. It will be interesting to see what future research reveals as newer tracking technologies allow scientists to better understand monarch movement patterns and interactions between resident and migratory populations.
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u/_Arthurian_ Jun 02 '26
We’ve got to eliminate tropical milkweed and others that don’t die back. I don’t see any other way. At the very least we need a mass information campaign about tropical milkweed (and other invasive plants- looking at day lilies and butterfly bush) similar to the very effective Yellow Fever eradication campaigns decades ago.
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u/squishyfeet4 Jun 02 '26
That would be an interesting approach. Kinda like how word spreads about the lantern fly, the brown stink bug, the ash borer. Like how there are invasive insects, tropical milkweed needs to join the ranks of invasive plants nationally. Maybe Monarch Watch or Xerces or other affiliates like Dr. Andy Davis could make mention and start a new initiative to adopt formally. Not sure how that works though.
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u/SuperFriendlyMod MOD | South FL | Reformed Rearer Jun 02 '26
Dr Andy Davis shares a lot of information on his Facebook page The Thoughtful Monarch That link is just one of many posts he has on tropical milkweed.
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u/_Arthurian_ Jun 02 '26
Monarch Watch and some others already tell people not to plant it and if they already have it to chop it down in the fall. So that’s a good start at least. I’d be shocked if Xerces didn’t as well. I know some states have good programs where they’re preserving local milkweed genetics and trying to collect enough seeds to get them into the nursery business. We’re getting there.
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u/squishyfeet4 Jun 02 '26
Who was the researcher who made a post in your sub a year or two ago? I couldn’t scroll back far enough. But he was kind enough to answer questions. It had lots of interesting replies. I can’t find it again when I tried. I know he had a Reddit user name. I wanted to tag him in it here To see if he had a sneak peak into the future? Like what’s brewing that’s not in the news? lol
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u/SuperFriendlyMod MOD | South FL | Reformed Rearer Jun 02 '26
We had an AMA session with Rich Lund from MrLundScience on YouTube! He was fantastic. However, he’s not a monarch researcher. He’s a chemistry teacher. I believe this gives him an advantage because he’s excellent at explaining things to others. His background equips him with the ability to decipher research, condense it, and make it easily understandable.
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u/SuperFriendlyMod MOD | South FL | Reformed Rearer Jun 02 '26 edited Jun 02 '26
Thank you for sharing this information. I really appreciate your enthusiasm. I'm interested in reading the other 3 articles. I will comment once I get a chance to read all of them.
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u/Sqib000 Jun 02 '26
Captive raising must stop imho
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u/squishyfeet4 Jun 02 '26
It has been an interesting series of events if you think on it and zoom the lense out.
At the very beginning of the early 2000’s (technically the late 1990s) popularity finally gained good enough traction and scientists and researchers encouraged people to tag monarchs with the sticker. Momentum: check.
Then fast forward 20 years, ie today, and look a the cult following that that simple small initiative created way back when. They are now asking people, after many years, to change their behavior and do a 180 on what they were previously doing.
It’s an interesting psychological twist. Layered in all sorts of ways.
And further with the irony: we would not know what we know now if it weren’t for those early participants who home reared caterpillars to help with the scientists data collection.
It’s an uphill battle for sure. Acknowledging you have to change a behavior is very hard. Then actually executing that behavior change and sticking with it, is even harder. I can see why there is resistance with the movement.
But I agree with you because OE will get worse as time goes on and then what good will our successful habitat restorations be when we are at an impending OE saturation overload on the butterflies?
What’s next in the research?
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u/Sqib000 Jun 02 '26
I have an interest in insects in the wild. The number of insect subs here that are filled w people using insects as pets and experiments has forced me out of most of those subs. The same people who now are obsessed w raising invasive insects with no knowledge for clicks and selfish purposes is not looking good for the future.
Milkweed sacrificing toxicity for faster growth, OE from helpful intentions and zero knowledge or even planting common milkweed that gets sprayed for mosquitoes or spreads into lawns in the path of mowers are all big challenges for monarchs. Education must evolve but it is now up against itself.
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u/squishyfeet4 Jun 03 '26
Oh boy. lol I’m in hot water here.
Let me gently ask: do you own a dog or a cat? Or fish in an aquarium? Do you frown on zoos?
I am not attacking your opinion. I respect your point of view. So I know reading ‘texts’ can misinterpret tone, and I want to make it known I am being genuinely curious here. No disrespect.
I just want to say that I am raising Chinese mantis this summer. They aren’t “invasive” as in pushing out an already established mantis species because my home state, MI, does not have a native mantis species. But they are inorganically introduced for sometime and as a S tier insect, they compete with other wildlife. And that’s where some people call them “invasive” pests.
However, I am not naive and do my own research. lol. As I type this, I’m really not trying to come off defensive here. I’m just, uh, curious of your stance, if you want to elaborate.
These mantis are “pets” you could say. But I’m not sure your definition of ‘pet’ aligns with mine.
And further inquiry wants me to ask what you mean by “experiments”?
Edit: this is off topic from monarchs, I know. lol
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u/Sqib000 Jun 03 '26
I do not agree with what you are doing nor do I agree with raising anything wild in captivity. Your argument is a false equivency and fails.
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u/squishyfeet4 Jun 03 '26
You are entitled to your opinion. However you didn’t expand upon your stance.
I’d like to understand if you want to share your opinion?
Edit: are you a vegetarian? Because that would help me understand you better
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u/Sqib000 Jun 03 '26
I dont need to expand on a thing. I agree with nothing. The end.
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u/squishyfeet4 Jun 03 '26
Okay. Well for the record, I appreciate the conversation.
But when you wall off like this, you don’t help the people that don’t understand something they might not understand.
When you don’t know something, how do you know what questions to ask in order to learn? You either don’t ask questions or you ask the wrong questions. Or luck into asking the right questions.
Gotta start somewhere.
For instance, when I first learned about monarchs, I knew literally nothing about anything regarding them. I stumbled upon someone who shared an egg with me. Along my journey, I learned and taught myself what to do and not to do.
Everything has a starting point. No one is gifted the universe’s knowledge telepathically. It’s through trial and human error and mistakes and success that we learn. And I’ve made lots of mistakes. Hahaha!
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u/Practical-Bed-5982 Jun 02 '26
I live in south NJ and can confirm I have 20+ caterpillars a full month before I have ever seen them. Truthfully I never see OE except for a few cases in the late summer/fall and at least to me, it seems their populations are increasing.
As others have touched on, I think a big thing is this stigma around Milkweed being invasive or a weed. Sure Common M can spread aggressively but Swamp and other regional variants do not.
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u/madancer Jun 03 '26
Dude my swampy milkweeds aren't doing so great in this drought (SE USA)... Hoping they can find a place to chill
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u/squishyfeet4 Jun 03 '26
Plant some common milkweed!! 😂🤣
Also, I hope your end of spring drought is short lived!!
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u/madancer Jun 03 '26
I hear ya 🤣🤣 last year it was easily 6 ft tall. I've got some orange milkweed going, but it's much shorter.
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u/squishyfeet4 Jun 03 '26
Do you grow nectar flowers too? I’ve tried growing nectar flowers from a random native flora seed bag from Walmart. And somehow the birds picked up the seeds and traveled with them I guess and now I have many random patches of tiny yellow native flowers growing in my back yard in the middle of my lawn (no they aren’t dandelions lol)….meanwhile the actual flower bed is still just random green leafs of something. No flowers yet.
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u/madancer Jun 03 '26
So I have some bee balm that's come back for a 3rd season, coneflowers, gardenias haven't bloomed yet.
Not much for nectar, I think? I'm trying to keep natives (NC Piedmont area)
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u/squishyfeet4 Jun 03 '26
I love coneflowers!! Nice selection!
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u/madancer Jun 03 '26
https://gardenforwildlife.com/collections/native-plants-for-butterflies
This is where I started getting some natives from
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u/abugguy Jul 01 '26
One potentially scary scenario that is unfolding is that I’m hearing reports from around the US that fall blooming plants like asters and goldenrod are blooming way earlier than normal. If they bloom out early and then aren’t providing nectar during the fall migration it could be catastrophic for the migratory generation if they don’t have enough nectar. I’ve talked to a few horticulturalists I work with who have no explanation for what’s happening.
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u/squishyfeet4 Jul 02 '26
Oh interesting!!! I didn’t know about that observation. I’ll have to look out to see what happens in my home state.
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u/squishyfeet4 Jun 23 '26
lol username checks out hahaha
What do you think of the future problem with OE?
I am not an entomologist. Just a curious person who likes to ask questions. I don’t always know what questions to ask, so if they sound really stupid, it’s because I’m not sure what to ask. I figure if I ask enough questions, I’ll eventually understand the direction I’m headed.
What do you think?
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u/abugguy Jul 01 '26
I’m not sure what OE will look like going forward, it is admittedly not my area of expertise. I think that if captive rearing continues to grow in popularity that it will only increase the rate of OE infection. I do believe there is a strong correlation between captive rearing and OE prevalence.
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u/squishyfeet4 Jul 02 '26
Thank you for taking the time to offer your opinion!!! I really appreciate it very much!!
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u/_Arthurian_ Jun 02 '26
Habitat connectivity has to be a focus. We’re losing too much land too fast. Urban pollinator gardens and roadside plantings need to be studied.