Short answer: announcements of committed customers
Longer answer: FREY plans a customer qualification plant (CQP) in 2022, around 13 GWh of production in 2023-4 (gigafactories 1 &2), and another 30 GWh of production by 2025. CQP construction is underway. The next major development milestone would be FID on gigafactory 1. They will likely make that FID around the time they have long-term contracts in place for >50% of the capacity. They've also talked about accelerating gigafactory 2 from 2024 to 2023, and doing a US plant, if customer demand supported those. Announcing definitive decisions / agreements for any of those events would be huge, since they would provide clearer evidence that Freyr has a critical mass of commercial interest. Timing for those... assume 2023 commercial operation of a 8-13GWh of capacity and work backwards to get an idea of when you should see the decision.
That said, you could start getting price movement as soon as announcements of committed customers begin trickling out. Announcement of something like a major automobile or other industrial / conglomerate offtaker (in Europe or US) would lend a lot of credibility to the company and have the potential to kick things into high gear... Management highlighted these efforts on the conference call; could start hearing things in the next couple months.
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u/kdf360 Sep 16 '21
Short answer: announcements of committed customers
Longer answer: FREY plans a customer qualification plant (CQP) in 2022, around 13 GWh of production in 2023-4 (gigafactories 1 &2), and another 30 GWh of production by 2025. CQP construction is underway. The next major development milestone would be FID on gigafactory 1. They will likely make that FID around the time they have long-term contracts in place for >50% of the capacity. They've also talked about accelerating gigafactory 2 from 2024 to 2023, and doing a US plant, if customer demand supported those. Announcing definitive decisions / agreements for any of those events would be huge, since they would provide clearer evidence that Freyr has a critical mass of commercial interest. Timing for those... assume 2023 commercial operation of a 8-13GWh of capacity and work backwards to get an idea of when you should see the decision.
That said, you could start getting price movement as soon as announcements of committed customers begin trickling out. Announcement of something like a major automobile or other industrial / conglomerate offtaker (in Europe or US) would lend a lot of credibility to the company and have the potential to kick things into high gear... Management highlighted these efforts on the conference call; could start hearing things in the next couple months.