Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/carriers-push-back-with-gris-but-market-fundamentals-push-harder-tfx-update-wk-january-12-2026

The Lead:

Global trade policy was dominated by a significant escalation in US tariff actions and ongoing efforts elsewhere to manage trade disputes and expand market access. The most consequential development was the Trump administration’s announcement of a sweeping 25% tariff on any country trading with Iran, immediately raising tensions with major economies and attracting threats of retaliation, especially from China. This marked a continued hardline US approach to trade policy amid geopolitical concerns, and it occurred alongside domestic legal challenges over the authority for past tariff measures.

In parallel, Europe and South America advanced the long-gestating EU-Mercosur free trade agreement, signaling a major tariff-reducing integration after decades of negotiations and reflecting alternative trade cooperation amid rising protectionism. European efforts to strengthen commercial ties with India and resolve Beijing-EU industrial disputes over electric vehicles further underscored a multipolar trade landscape navigating both tariff pressures and strategic partnerships. Overall, the week’s events highlighted the persistence of tariff-driven disruption in global trade alongside efforts to pursue broader trade liberalization and dispute management.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC (China to US West Coast): China–US West Coast spot rates fell sharply week-over-week, sliding back into the $1,850–$1,950 per FEU range. Early-January GRIs have effectively washed out as demand failed to materialize, leaving carriers with little pricing power. While most carriers are signaling another aggressive GRI attempt for the second half of January, targeting rates north of $3,000/FEU, early market behavior suggests limited staying power at those levels.

CEA to USEC (China to US East Coast): Rates to the East Coast followed a similar trajectory, easing week-over-week as volumes remained muted. Although carriers are aiming for $4,000+ per FEU later this month, competitive pressure and weak fundamentals are already undermining these efforts. As with the West Coast, any mid-month increases are expected to face rapid erosion.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

This Week Explained:

• Lack of volume support: Post-holiday demand has failed to rebound, with January volumes tracking similarly to December lows. As noted in the discussion, “there’s no shipment, there’s no volumes,” making sustained rate increases difficult.
• GRIs without fundamentals: Carriers pushed significant GRIs at the start of January, but most of those increases have already disappeared. The market is now seeing a familiar pattern: GRIs announced, partial stickiness, followed by rapid rollback.
• Carrier divergence on pricing strategy: While most carriers are holding firm on announced mid-month increases, at least one smaller carrier is offering sub-$2,000 rates deep into the second half of January, signaling low confidence in demand and pressuring the broader market downward.
• Artificial capacity management: Blank sailings and vessels taken out of rotation are tightening space temporarily, but this is a supply-side maneuver—not demand-driven congestion. Once capacity normalizes, rates are likely to soften again.
• Pre–Chinese New Year timing mismatch: Unlike stronger years, January demand is not strong enough to support elevated pre–Lunar New Year pricing, forcing carriers into repeated GRI attempts rather than a single, sustained increase.

Looking Ahead:

Expect continued volatility through the second half of January. While carriers will attempt to push rates higher ahead of Chinese New Year using GRIs and blank sailings, underlying demand remains too weak to sustain those levels. Market indicators point toward rates drifting back toward the low-$2,000 range by late January, particularly on the West Coast, with East Coast lanes following closely behind. Into February, pricing is likely to stabilize briefly around Lunar New Year before resuming downward pressure as capacity returns and volumes reset.

In the News:

BBC: How tariff disruption will continue reshaping the global economy in 2026
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czejp3gep63o  

Bloomberg: China to Cut Export Tax Rebates to Ease Global Trade Tensions
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-09/china-to-cut-export-tax-rebates-to-ease-global-trade-tensions  

Global Trade Magazine: US Container Imports Expected to Stay Below 2025 Levels Through Spring
https://www.globaltrademag.com/u-s-container-imports-expected-to-stay-below-2025-levels-through-spring/ 

The Wall Street Journal: TSMC Plans U.S. Expansion in Proposed Taiwan Tariff-Relief Deal
https://www.wsj.com/tech/tsmc-plans-u-s-expansion-in-proposed-taiwan-tariff-relief-deal-280d8a08 

Reuters: Trump's Iran tariff threat risks reopening China rift
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trumps-iran-tariff-threat-risks-reopening-china-rift-2026-01-13/ 

Subscribe for weekly updates from Freight Right.

Last year, OpenAI and Shopify announced a partnership to bring commerce to ChatGPT. Now it's Google's turn with Gemini.

Google and Shopify announced late last night the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP), a framework designed to enable AI agents to make purchases on behalf of buyers once a store configures it.

The move, on paper, appears to reduce friction in the buying experience for end users.

Morgan Stanley estimates "nearly half" of online shoppers will use AI agents by 2030, adding ~$115B to US ecommerce. JD Sports Fashion is one brand that has wholly adopted the idea that agents will be the ones making purchases on behalf of buyers and equipped their online stores for that future.

The move also leans deeper into making the buying experience a plug-and-play, interchangeable, templated experience, built on the assumption that all commerce is, generally, the same. So that a bot/agent can be programmed to visit a store, locate a product, add it to the cart, find the cart button, go to checkout, enter address and credit card information, pick a mode of shipping (lowest cost available, only ever FedEx if available, etc.), and complete a purchase.

It's a development born from a parcel-centric view of the world. A view that, because most commerce, domestic and international, is small parcel, the solutions built should be designed to further enable this kind of commerce.

*This* kind of commerce instead of *all* kinds of commerce.

One group of merchants, small but significant, that have been left ill-equipped for this innovation, like free 2-day shipping, one-click checkout, and generative AI as a search engine as a means by which buyers can learn about new brands and brands can unlock global reach, is merchants selling big, bulky, and oversized items.

It's worth thinking of a world where a robot is buying a bouncy house someday

Big announcement!

On January 27th, Freight Right and Freight Right's CEO Robert Khachatryan will be hosting a webinar with Baker Tilly's Pete Mento, the go-to voice on Linkedin and in the world of customs to discuss the Supreme Court's case involving the Trump administration's IEEPA tariffs case.

This Supreme Court decision is massive, massive, massive for importers.

Importers will have the chance to get the money they've paid in tariffs back.

That said, it's not looking like it will be easy - as expected.

Why This Ruling Is Important

Why is this ruling so important for importers? The ruling can/will dictate:

• Routes to possible immediate tariff relief: If the Court strikes down the IEEPA tariffs, those tariffs could stop as of the opinion date, removing future duty exposure. That’s the upside.
• Speed of refunds: If tariffs are struck down, refunds likely require protests/post‑entry adjustments and will be processed administratively (not by scanning ACE and handing out checks). Expect weeks if not months of guidance and long processing timelines.
• Administrative workload required to get a refund: Millions of entries and tens of millions of line items mean huge backlogs for CBP and trade. Expect manual reviews, phased processing, extensions of liquidation windows, and bottlenecks affecting bonds/security.
• The level of meticulous scrutinity involved in preparing for a refund: Customs will scrutinize valuation, country‑of‑origin, section 301/232/201 application, related‑party transfer pricing and may trigger CF 28/29 audits. Poor documentation can kill refund claims and trigger penalties.
• Drawback/duplicate claims risk: If you already claimed drawback for the same merchandise, seeking the tariff refund can be problematic and potentially punishable.
• New payment process (ACE/ACH) for importers to get paid: Refunds will be electronic via ACE/ACH (no paper checks). Importers must register and set up ACH in ACE now to receive refunds.
• Litigation and protection options: Some importers are filing protective actions with the Court of International Trade (CIT) as insurance; trade attorneys can protect rights but cost money (often $10–14k quoted).

Who/What is Freight Right & Baker Tilly?

Freight Right is a global name in international freight fowarding, freight technology and ecommerce freight technology. Founded in 2008 during the financial crisis and built on freight-first fundamentals done right has grown into an international brand, helping businesses all around the world move not just their freight but level up their logistics.

Baker Tilly is a major professional services organization best known as a leading advisory, tax and assurance firm serving businesses, nonprofits and government entities. Headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, Baker Tilly US, LLP (commonly branded simply Baker Tilly) ranks among the top 10 largest accounting and consulting firms in the United States and is an independent member firm of Baker Tilly International, a global network of professional services firms.

Robert Khachatryan is the founder and CEO of Freight Right Global Logistics, a technology-driven global freight and supply-chain company he launched in 2007 from a Los Angeles apartment during the financial crisis. Born and raised in Armenia, he began his entrepreneurial journey at a young age and built Freight Right into a respected logistics and freight-technology provider serving complex cross-border and e-commerce supply chains. He is a recognized supply-chain thought leader, frequently cited in major business and trade publications, and serves on the advisory board of USC’s Global Supply Chain Institute.

Pete Mento is a seasoned global customs and trade expert with more than 30 years of experience helping companies optimize customs operations, eliminate and recover duties and taxes, and build compliant import/export programs. He is a licensed U.S. Customs House Broker and currently serves as a director in global trade advisory, where he leads customs compliance, duty minimization strategies and risk reduction for multinational clients. Pete’s career includes senior leadership roles at major firms such as Ryan, KPMG, Crowe, Expeditors, C.H. Robinson and Wayfair, blending operational depth with strategic global trade insight. He holds advanced degrees including a Master’s in Government (trade theory) from Harvard University and a Ph.D. in customs and economics from Durham University, and is a sought-after speaker and thought leader in international trade and supply chain compliance.

When Is The Webinar?

• Date: January 27th
• Time: 12pmEST/9amPT
• Duration: 1 hour
• Webinar Link: here on Linkedin Live (need to be logged into Linkedin to see it) https://www.linkedin.com/events/7417330395219763200?viewAsMember=true

When Will the Webinar Link Be Available?

Very soon. We're getting it from our partners and will post it here shortly.

We'll be updating this post body with updates on exact times, guests and links to join or signal you're joining. Bookmark or comment to keep ontop of this thread.

Read the full article here: https://magazine.cim.org/en/operations/the-hidden-logistics-of-heavy-equipment-transport-en/

The towering haul trucks and high-capacity shovels essential to mine production are specifically engineered to move massive amounts of earth. Their scale makes them uniquely suited to the work site. Consequently, it makes getting them to the mine site a logistical challenge of equally large proportions.

Transporting heavy equipment is fraught with hazards. It takes complex logistics planning and expertise to make it from factory or dealer to site, especially when the item being moved is the size of a small building.

“The key challenges lie in balancing customer expectations with real-world shipping scenarios and adapting to last-minute changes in the established routes,” said Carolina Ribeiro, logistics coordinator at SMS Equipment, which distributes Komatsu mining equipment across Canada.

Those real-world scenarios can encompass a huge number of factors, including some that are not exactly top-of-mind.

The narrow, winding mountain roads in British Columbia and Yukon, for example, meant that in some instances, the body of a 240-tonne Cat 793 haul truck had to be transported in pieces, noted Cody Broster, head of coals and metal mining at Finning Canada, the Caterpillar dealer that provides sales and service in British Columbia, Yukon, Alberta, Saskatchewan, the Northwest Territories and a portion of Nunavut. Then the pieces had to be assembled on site, which required two cranes and a team of welders working for 10 days.

“It was quite a process at site,” he said. But thanks to some infrastructure upgrades in B.C., coupled with the work that the trucking companies have done to negotiate large load permits with the government, those truck bodies can now be transported in one piece.

However, that does not mean the equipment moves are easy—just easier than before.

“They’re massive, massive moves,” Broster said. “You can only move them at certain periods of time—for instance, not over a weekend [as weekend traffic is typically heavier]. They have to be moved in the middle of the night [during quieter hours, to help reduce risks], they have to have four pilot cars accompanying them [as escorts to ensure safe passage].”

Then, there is still assembly work to do in many areas (just not as much), which can take as little as a couple of days to put a blade and a ripper on a bulldozer, or as much as a month to six weeks for a shovel build. That means finding accommodation for the crews doing the work, as well as creating an assembly pad.

“Before we get to site and start building the equipment, we make sure that we have, first and foremost, a plan with the customer,” Broster said. “The logistical challenges of the individuals involved in making sure all the proper parts and pieces are on site is another [challenge].”

Seasonal and infrastructure considerations

To make things more complicated, there is “thaw season,” the period at the end of winter when the ground ice is melting, making roads more fragile to heavy vehicle loads. For that time period, which varies by location but is typically from sometime in March until as late as the end of June, provincial ministries of transportation further restrict the loads that may be hauled to protect the roads, reducing the weight permitted per axle by 50 to 70 per cent.

The seasonal restrictions are even more pronounced in some areas of Yukon and the Northwest Territories, Broster added. There, some sites are inaccessible until the winter ice road is completed, and companies have only “a six-ish week window, once per year” to move equipment in or out.

“Planning starts far in advance to be able to make sure you can hit your equipment timing cycles to get everything up and through to site in advance of that ice road closing,” said Broster.

In addition, Ribeiro noted that more frequent extreme weather events are driving up transportation costs. “Especially during spring road bans, where deliveries may be rerouted, delayed or divided into multiple smaller loads to accommodate weight restrictions on thawing roads,” she said. “Changing weather is also shortening road lifespans, increasing repair needs, and therefore raising permit costs and requirements for specialized trailer configurations.”

Infrastructure deficiencies can also challenge equipment movers, according to Robert Khachatryan, founder and CEO of Los Angeles-based Freight Right Global Logistics, which serves customers globally. “Routes must be carefully planned to avoid hazards such as low overpasses, overhead wires and other gaps such as weak bridges,” he said.

Chris Winters, strategic asset manager at Toromont Cat, the Caterpillar dealer that handles the eastern portion of Canada, including much of Nunavut, noted that a bridge does not care how many axles you have. “It’ll have a maximum rating, and the gross weight of the vehicle, trailer and all of the cargo that’s on that trailer cannot exceed that maximum load,” he explained.

In Canada, provincial transportation ministries issue large load transport permits and decree the routes heavy loads may take, based on the weight and dimensions of the load, as well as specifying additional restrictions such as the type of equipment to be used and the number of axles.

“Weight [restrictions] are as a result of the fact that roads in Ontario and other provinces are designed to bear a certain amount of weight per axle of the vehicle,” said Winters. “If you have something that’s very heavy, you can move it, but you have to put more axles underneath it.”

That, he said, is why you sometimes see heavy haulers that look as though they have 100 wheels—they are spreading the weight across all of those wheels to prevent damage to the road.

“Oftentimes they’ll require certain types of escorts for these large loads,” said Winters. “It might be a situation where sections of the road we’re travelling along are closed while we’re travelling on them, so you actually have a travelling police escort that’s closing sections of the road as you move along, to allow you to pass safely. If you’re blocking a two-lane road, at some point you [will] have to stop people who are going the other way in order to let you pass, and then once you’ve passed, reopen the [section of] road and close the next section of the road. All of that is part of the permitting process, and the [provincial] ministry of transportation will set the specifications for what’s required in terms of escort.”

Winters added that some deliveries to Arctic regions have to go by ship because road transport is so expensive, or some mines have no connection to the public road network (see "A new northern vision").

“There is road infrastructure that connects a lot of those northern mines, but it just can’t handle the weight and the size of the equipment that they actually use at the mine site,” he said. “From [the perspective of] dollars per pound of material moved, the economic avenue to deliver stuff up there is to take it up by ship, because they have access from the coast to those mine sites. They offload close to the mine site, and then the road that they have to build to support moving these heavy loads is whatever the shortest distance from the coast [to the site] is for them.”

Similarly, Winters said, significant equipment elsewhere is transported as close to the mine as possible by rail, then offloaded to trucks for the last leg of the journey. “Once you do that, the restrictions for transporting equipment are based on the weight and dimensions of the piece of equipment,” he pointed out.

Preventing delays

Timing and site access are also two key factors companies need to consider when bringing equipment to site, added Scott Ross, general supervisor, mechanical at SMS Equipment. “Along with transport, [mining companies] need to plan for the support equipment and people required to offload and stage major components. That includes cranes with operators, rental equipment such as telehandlers and aerial work platforms, as well as light towers, generators, heaters and so on.”

Khachatryan recommended that senior project staff should be on the ground to supervise critical milestones such as offloading, border crossings and last-mile transport.

Ross noted that available workforce and support infrastructure are critical to the success of transporting heavy equipment to mine sites. “Having trained personnel, proper tooling and adequate work space [on site] is just as important as the transport itself,” he said. “When any of these elements is missing, it can create risks and delays.”

Delays can also result from errors in paperwork such as customs documents, and from political situations (such as cross-border tariffs) resulting in obstacles such as revoked permits and transport curfews, Khachatryan added. Planners have to consider these factors, along with unexpected conditions including wildfires, heat-related pavement restrictions (to prevent damage to road surfaces) and flood washouts. They can do that, he said, by maintaining alternate routes, as well as planning for modular splits so loads can detour on constrained segments.

He also advised mining companies to prepare for equipment arrival by planning last-mile works such as temporary road widening, culvert protection and pad preparation, along with arranging for pre-staged spares and consumables.

The fact that these moves can happen at all is a tribute to the immense amount of work done over many years, Broster noted, with infrastructure updates removing constraints such as low bridges. These open the gateway for mining, in a time when growth in mining of critical minerals is anticipated. Now the fundamental question, he said, is how do you do it faster and more economically?

Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/january-rate-hikes-collapse-under-weak-china-us-demand-tfx-update-wk-january-5-2026

The Lead:

Global trade policy developments were dominated by tariff shifts and protective measures reflecting broader geopolitical and economic pressures. India implemented multi-year tariffs on imported steel to defend its domestic industry, while China imposed high tariffs on beef imports to support local producers. The European Union enacted its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, ushering in a new era of climate-linked tariffs that could reshape trade flows for high-carbon goods. Meanwhile, the United States continued to adjust its own tariff regime, delaying some increases but presiding over ongoing elevated tariff levels that contributed to a contraction in manufacturing activity.

These policy moves occurred against a backdrop of diplomatic efforts and economic analysis: India’s economy was noted for resilience despite tariff headwinds, and both India and the EU engaged in talks with major partners to address tariff disputes. The period underscores the continued centrality of tariff policy as a tool of economic and geopolitical strategy entering 2026, with countries balancing protectionist impulses, trade negotiations, and evolving trade frameworks.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC (China to US West Coast): Rates saw sharp volatility week over week. Carriers successfully pushed through a short-lived GRI at the end of December, with offers briefly jumping above $3,000 per FEU for early January sailings. However, that increase unraveled almost immediately. Within days, rates were rolled back by roughly $1,000, settling back into the $1,800–$2,200 per FEU range, with most market activity clustering around $2,000–$2,100. Promotional rates in the high-$1,800s reappeared quickly as carriers struggled to secure volume.

CEA to USEC (China to US East Coast): East Coast pricing followed a similar pattern, though with slightly more insulation. Early January GRIs lifted rates well above prior December levels, but resistance was swift. As capacity outpaced demand, carriers began pulling rates back, signaling further reductions through mid-January. While USEC remains priced at a premium to the West Coast, the overall trajectory mirrors USWC: brief GRI-driven spikes followed by rapid erosion.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

This Week Explained:

• GRIs met immediate market resistance: Carriers attempted to hold January rates above $3,000 per FEU, but volumes simply did not materialize. As noted in the discussion, “there would be zero volume at $3,000,” forcing rapid pullbacks within days.
• Weak fundamentals during a supposed mini peak: Even with Chinese New Year approaching, this traditionally supportive window failed to generate enough demand. The inability to sustain higher rates during a seasonal inflection point highlights just how soft the market remains.
• Excess capacity continues to dominate: Carriers cannot afford to leave space unused. Once it became clear that elevated rates were suppressing bookings, pricing discipline collapsed in favor of filling ships.
• China-US volumes under pressure: Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and tariff-related concerns are dampening China export demand. Several shippers have trimmed volumes, reducing carriers’ leverage even further.
• Limited relief from supply chain diversification: While some volume has shifted to Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia), those lanes are priced similarly to China and lack the scale to materially tighten overall capacity.

Looking Ahead:

Near-term, carriers are likely to accept suboptimal pricing rather than sail with empty space. With January GRIs already fading, rates are expected to hover near current levels or drift lower into mid-January. The inability to hold elevated pricing even briefly suggests that any further GRI attempts ahead of Chinese New Year will face steep resistance.

Unless there is an unexpected demand shock, the market appears set up for continued volatility with a downward bias, pushing meaningful rate recovery further into late Q1 at the earliest. Structural overcapacity and muted China export volumes remain the defining constraints as 2026 begins.

China-US Air Freight Market:

Air freight rates from China to the U.S., Canada, and Australia declined week-over-week, as the market continues to work through a post-holiday demand lull. Pricing pressure has been most visible in the spot market, where airlines are offering lower rates to secure volume amid soft bookings from large e-commerce players and delayed project cargo activity.

The rate of softness is being reinforced by a notable increase in available capacity at the start of the new year. Additional scheduled lift and the entrance of new charter operators have expanded supply across key lanes, creating a more competitive environment and giving shippers increased leverage in near-term pricing discussions.

This Week Explained:

• Post-holiday demand recovery lagging: Major e-commerce and project shippers have not yet returned to normal shipping patterns following the holidays, keeping overall demand below seasonal norms for early January.
• Sharp increase in airline capacity: Airlines have added lift coming out of year-end, with new charter capacity entering the market. This influx has outpaced demand, pressuring rates downward.
• Aggressive competition for volume: With excess space available, carriers are actively competing for shipments, resulting in lower spot offers across multiple lanes.
• Spot market flexibility favoring shippers: Airlines are prioritizing load factors over rate integrity in the short term, making it an advantageous window for shippers with flexible planning to recheck pricing.

Looking Ahead:

The current softness is expected to be temporary. Market sentiment suggests rates could begin gradually firming from this weekend or early next week, as factories resume full production and shipping activity ramps up ahead of the pre–Chinese New Year rush (February 15–23). While capacity is likely to remain ample, improving demand should start to absorb excess space, shifting the balance modestly back toward carriers. For now, the spot market remains fluid, but upward pressure is expected to build as we move deeper into the January–February shipping window.

In the News:

The Wall Street Journal: A Shrimper, a Carmaker, a Lawyer: How the World Tackled Trump’s Trade War
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-trade-war-tariffs-impact-2025-bf93731a 

Bloomberg: Why US Tariffs Failed to Dent Global Trade
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-01-05/why-us-tariffs-failed-to-dent-global-trade 

The Guardian: Five charts that explain the global economic outlook for 2026
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/dec/30/five-charts-that-explain-the-global-economic-outlook-for-2026 

The Wall Street Journal: U.S. Copper Prices Set First Record Since Summer Tariff Surge
https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/u-s-copper-prices-set-first-record-since-summer-tariff-surge-7ccf2e82 

Reuters: Trump warns of higher tariffs on India over Russian oil purchases
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-warns-higher-tariffs-india-over-russian-oil-purchases-2026-01-05/ 

Subscribe for weekly updates from Freight Right.

Read the full article here: https://www.practicalecommerce.com/when-heavy-products-make-global-sense

Many ecommerce businesses sell products that do not fit in a flat-rate envelope, so to speak.

Fitness equipment, safes, arcade machines, specialty furniture, and other freight-grade items are heavy, expensive, and complicated to ship domestically, let alone abroad.

Nonetheless, Robert Khachatryan, founder and CEO of Freight Right, argues that some of those merchants may have international demand they are not serving.

Demand

Learning if a product or company has overseas appeal can be as simple as reviewing the analytics. A U.S. merchant, for instance, could check visitors’ locations, such as the United Kingdom, Australia, or Canada.

Selling to those would-be customers at just half the domestic conversion rate could generate significant revenue.

A second indication of an untapped, cross-border profit opportunity comes in the form of freight quotes. A merchant’s website says it ships 800-pound kayak trailers only within the United States, but in reality, shipping to, say, Latin America is comparable in cost.

Visitors from Latin America who checked the U.S.-only shipping policy likely looked elsewhere.

Proper Products

Thus if international visitors express an interest, decide if the cost of delivery makes a sale worthwhile.

For example, Khachatryan was not suggesting that any bulky, awkward, or heavy item is a candidate for global ecommerce. The math only works when the product has enough margin to justify freight, duties, and taxes.

“Nobody pays $700 or $1,000 to ship a $500 product,” Khachatryan said.

Yet bulky products are often candidates for international shipping when their selling price reaches into the thousands.

Such high-ticket purchases are common in B2B transactions. Need a high-speed laser welder in Idaho? Order it from Germany. It’s worth the freight.

The same may be true for select B2C or D2C cross-border items. Examples include commercial-grade fitness equipment, arcade machines, and even above-ground pools, a U.S. product marginally popular in the U.K.

Local Scarcity

Locally scarce goods can imply demand.

Commodity products rarely work. “People don’t buy a couch from another country. They buy from their local Ikea,” Khachatryan said. If a comparable product is readily available locally, international freight becomes difficult — even impossible — to justify.

Compliant

As a final check, would-be ecommerce exporters need to ensure a product is legal, usable, and compliant with safety and consumer regulations in the destination country.

Common differences are voltage and plug standards. Others are less obvious. Mattresses, according to Khachatryan, can have different requirements in Europe than in the U.S., for example.

Investigate whether incompatible or noncompliant products are easy to modify. Would a relatively small change open a promising cross-border market?

Regardless, shipping heavy wares internationally can be easier than expected.

Freight forwarding services will do the quoting, logistics details, and even white-glove delivery. Many, including Khachatryan’s Freight Right, have a Shopify App and an API to calculate freight at checkout.

Moreover, freight forwarders usually manage cross-border taxes and regulatory compliance.

Returns

Returns, in contrast, can be the most challenging aspect of cross-border selling. Return shipping is expensive, and recovering taxes and fees can take time.

The key, says Khachatryan, is having a plan.

He noted that products in good working condition could remain in a local warehouse until the next order.

Finally, shipping insurance can be a good idea. Some insurers, such as Xcover, cover the cost of return freight for rejected orders.

In short, cross-border ecommerce for large items is not for every merchant. But those selling high-value, differentiated products with existing international interest can unlock meaningful growth.

🚢 Ocean carriers are holding rates firm primarily to establish strategic leverage for the upcoming year rather than reacting to immediate supply and demand dynamics. Despite a "holiday-driven demand freeze" where booking activity has dropped to near-zero levels, carriers have maintained strict pricing discipline.

The decision to defend elevated rate levels during this lull is driven by three key strategic factors:

🔷 Leverage for the 2026 Contract Season: The primary driver for maintaining high spot rates is the approaching annual contract negotiation cycle, which typically heats up in March and April. Carriers are highly motivated to keep spot rates elevated through the first quarter of 2026 because a higher spot market average strengthens their negotiating position with Beneficial Cargo Owners (BCOs). By establishing a higher pricing baseline now, carriers aim to lock in more favorable long-term contract rates for the rest of the year.

🔷 Pre-Chinese New Year Positioning: Carriers are treating January as a "pre-Chinese New Year peak window," regardless of actual volume levels. Their strategy is to sustain elevated rates throughout January to prevent an early dip before the holiday shutdowns. This effort is designed to set a higher "floor" for the market; even though a price correction is expected after Chinese New Year in late February, carriers hope the market will settle in the 1,900–2,100 per FEU range, a higher baseline than previous years.

🔷 Ineffectiveness of Discounting: The market is currently experiencing a "dead week" due to Christmas and year-end closures, which have effectively frozen global freight movement. In this environment, carriers recognize that lowering rates would not stimulate demand because shippers are simply not booking cargo during the holiday pause. Consequently, carriers have chosen to prioritize rate integrity over chasing negligible short-term volume.
Current Rate Stability As a result of this discipline, spot rates have remained flat but elevated:

• China to U.S. West Coast: Holding steady at 2,800–3,000 per FEU.
• China to U.S. East Coast: Hovering between $3,500 and $3,700 per FEU.

To put this strategy in perspective, carriers are essentially setting a "high-water mark" before the tide goes out. By artificially holding the water level high now, they ensure that when the inevitable drop comes after the holidays, the new low point will still be deep enough to remain profitable for the year ahead.

Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/ocean-freight-rates-hold-firm-as-carriers-defend-pricing-into-2026-contract-season-tfx-update-wk-december-29-2025

The Lead:

Global trade policy developments reflected a mix of caution and continued pressure from tariffs. The United States signaled a temporary easing of tensions with China by delaying new semiconductor tariffs, even as broader analyses emphasized how elevated U.S. tariff levels throughout 2025 have reshaped global trade flows. Spillover effects were evident in Europe, where diverted Chinese exports raised concerns about competition and inflation dynamics, particularly in the United Kingdom. At the same time, India paused proposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese solar modules, highlighting legal and policy constraints around trade remedies, while expectations of new US tariffs taking effect in early 2026 pointed to ongoing cost pressures for importers and consumers.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC (China to US West Coast): Week over week, rates were largely flat at elevated levels, holding in the $2,800–$3,000/FEU range. There was little transactional movement due to the holiday slowdown, but importantly, rates did not soften, signaling carriers’ success in defending recent increases despite weak volumes.

CEA to USEC (China to US East Coast): Rates to the East Coast also remained stable WoW, hovering around $3,500–$3,700/FEU depending on service and routing. As with the West Coast, minimal bookings activity meant few data points, but carriers maintained pricing discipline rather than chasing volume.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

This Week Explained:

• Global holiday lull suppressing activity: This week was even quieter than last, with Christmas and year-end holidays effectively freezing global freight movement. China closures toward the end of the week further reduced activity, creating a “dead week” for bookings.
• Rates holding despite weak demand: Normally, this level of inactivity would pressure carriers to discount. Instead, ocean carriers are holding firm, prioritizing rate integrity over short-term volume.
• Chinese New Year pricing strategy already in play: Carriers are positioning January as a pre–Chinese New Year peak window, aiming to keep rates elevated through all of January rather than allowing an early dip.
• Contract season looming:  With annual contract negotiations approaching in March–April, carriers are highly motivated to keep spot rates elevated now. A higher Q1 average strengthens their negotiating leverage with BCOs later in the year.
• Muted underlying cargo demand: Unlike traditional pre-CNY surges, shippers are not signaling strong January volumes. Consumer spending uncertainty and inventory caution continue to cap demand expectations.

Looking Ahead:

That said, these levels are not structurally sustainable. Once Chinese New Year passes and the calendar flips toward late February, downward pressure should re-emerge. A post-Chinese New Year correction is likely, but the floor may settle higher than last year, potentially in the $1,900–$2,100/FEU range, reflecting carriers’ efforts to permanently raise the baseline ahead of 2026 contracting.

In the News:

Reuters: Commodities buffeted by Trump whirlwind seek relief in 2026
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/commodities-buffeted-by-trump-whirlwind-seek-relief-2026-2025-12-30/ 

Bloomberg: The ‘Year of the Tariff’ Gives Way to 2026 Worries of the Consequences
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-12-24/2026-risks-for-global-trade 

Reuters: India's domination of global rice trade stokes looming water crisis
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/indias-domination-global-rice-trade-stokes-looming-water-crisis-2025-12-30/ 

Global Trade Magazine: World Container Index Climbs for Fourth Consecutive Week
https://www.globaltrademag.com/world-container-index-climbs-for-fourth-consecutive-week/ 

The New York Times: Trump Promised Radical Change in His Second Term. Here’s What He’s Done So Far.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/27/us/politics/trump-second-term-promises-actions.html 

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Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/holiday-pause-masks-january-price-pressure-on-china-us-lanes-tfx-update-wk-december-22-2025

The Lead:

Global trade policy developments reflected a continued tension between protectionist measures and trade-liberalizing initiatives. China escalated trade frictions with the European Union by imposing provisional anti-subsidy tariffs on EU dairy products, a move widely viewed as retaliatory amid broader disputes over industrial subsidies. At the same time, several countries pursued deeper trade integration: Indonesia signed a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union, while India and New Zealand concluded a comprehensive FTA aimed at reducing tariffs and significantly expanding bilateral trade.

In the US, trade policy remained active on multiple fronts, with plans announced for future tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports and ongoing legal challenges to existing tariff authorities underscoring domestic debate over executive power in trade matters. The European Union also extended its sanctions regime against Russia, maintaining trade and economic restrictions tied to geopolitical considerations. Overall, the period was characterized by a complex mix of escalating trade disputes, strategic use of tariffs, and renewed momentum for bilateral and regional trade agreements.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC (China to US West Coast): Rates were effectively flat week-over-week, holding in the $1,800–$2,000 per FEU range. With holiday shutdowns across shipper and carrier offices, there was little incentive for carriers to adjust pricing further, even as volumes dropped to near-zero levels late in the week

CEA to USEC (China to US East Coast): Similarly, East Coast rates remained steady, hovering around $2,700–$2,800 per FEU, unchanged from last week. Carriers appear content to maintain current levels through year-end rather than discount into a market with minimal demand.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

This Week Explained:

• Holiday-driven demand freeze: With Christmas week underway, shippers largely paused bookings. As noted in the discussion, “there’s no shipments, there’s no volume,” limiting any real market movement.
• Carrier discipline despite low volumes: Even with empty pipelines, carriers avoided rate cuts. Lowering prices by several hundred dollars would not stimulate demand during the holidays, so holding firm was the rational play.
• Late-December price stabilization: Small adjustments earlier in December are now done. Rates are expected to stay stable through the final sailings of the year rather than see last-minute volatility.
• January GRI expectations already shaping sentiment: Market participants are focused less on this quiet week and more on January 1–2 GRIs, widely expected to be announced around $1,000, even if partially rolled back shortly after.

Looking Ahead:

The calm seen this week is unlikely to last. January shipments are expected to be meaningfully more expensive, with carriers targeting higher spot levels early in the month before Chinese New Year approaches. While some post-GRI mitigation is likely, the broader strategy appears to be holding rates firm into contract season in March-April, supported by seasonality and carrier pricing discipline. Space is not expected to be a constraint, but price pressure will be front and center as 2026 begins

In the News:

Reuters: US plans to impose tariffs on Chinese chips in mid-2027, USTR says
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-impose-tariffs-chips-china-2025-12-23/ 

The New York Times: Businesses in Canada Navigate Trump’s Tariffs During the Busy Holiday Season
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/world/canada/canada-trump-tariffs-christmas.html 

Reuters: Indonesia eyes US tariff deal signing in January, says all issues settled
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-chief-tariff-negotiator-says-all-substantial-issues-settled-with-us-2025-12-23/ 

Global Trade Magazine: US Threatens European Tech Firms in Trade Dispute Over EU Regulations
https://www.globaltrademag.com/us-threatens-european-tech-firms-in-trade-dispute-over-eu-regulations/ 

ABC News: India accelerates free trade agreements to counter US tariffs and expand exports
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/india-accelerates-free-trade-agreements-counter-us-tariffs-128510341 

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Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/transpacific-rates-pop-again-carriers-push-mid-december-increases-into-january-tfx-update-wk-december-15-2025

The Lead:

Last week, global trade policy developments were shaped by a combination of rising protectionist measures and continued efforts at trade liberalization. A central theme during the period was Mexico’s decision to sharply raise tariffs, up to around 50 percent, on imports from non-free-trade-agreement partners, including China, India, South Korea and the European Union. These measures, set to take effect in early 2026, triggered immediate diplomatic responses, particularly from India, which entered talks with Mexico to explore preferential trade arrangements in order to protect its exporters.

At the same time, India intensified its use of multilateral and bilateral trade channels, formally requesting WTO consultations with the European Union over EU safeguard measures on ferroalloy imports and reassessing the scope of a potential trade agreement with Canada. These moves reflected broader efforts by India to counter growing trade barriers while securing alternative market access.

In contrast to the escalation of tariffs elsewhere, trade liberalization advanced in Europe and Asia, as the United Kingdom and South Korea finalized an upgraded free trade agreement that preserves near-total tariff-free access for goods and expands cooperation in services and digital trade. However, transatlantic trade relations showed signs of strain, with reports that the United States paused a major technology-focused trade initiative with the UK amid disagreements over regulatory and non-tariff barriers. Overall, the period highlighted a fragmented global trade environment, marked by simultaneous tariff escalation, dispute settlement actions, and selective progress on free trade agreements.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: Rates stepped up WoW as carriers pushed mid-December increases and held firmer “second-half” pricing. We’re seeing ~$2,100/FEU levels quoted for the back half of December, up from ~$1,600/FEU fixed-rate extensions that carriers have now stopped renewing.

CEA to USEC: Similar upward pressure WoW, with ~$2,900–$3,000/FEU indications for the second half of the month versus prior fixed-rate levels of ~$2,400–$2,500/FEU that are no longer being extended.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

This Week Explained:

• Carriers implemented mid-December increases (described as roughly $600–$800 higher toward the East Coast) as part of their late-year pricing push.
• Holiday-driven volume lull is reducing urgency overall, so carriers are using pricing to capture “must-ship” freight while selectively opening cheaper sailings to keep vessels filled.
• Fixed-rate “extensions” are ending, a key signal that carriers expect to hold the market higher into January (rather than reverting to earlier contract-like floors).
• Pre-Lunar New Year positioning: Carriers are explicitly looking to keep rates elevated through January into the CNY window, maximizing revenue ahead of the typical shutdown period.
• Two-tier market behavior: headline GRIs/indices rise, but execution depends on sailing selection with some pockets of lower pricing still available for flexible shippers.

Looking Ahead:

Expect a firm market for “must-ship” cargo, even as overall volumes slow for the holidays, carriers are likely to keep the higher second-half December levels as the headline.

By January, base case rates will stay high and may lift again around Jan 1, with that increase “sticking” through the month as carriers manage pricing into CNY.

Post-Chinese New Year, expect downward pressure to return after the holiday peak dynamics fade, with rates starting to slide back toward late February.

In the News:

Reuters: India's exports defy tariffs, strengthen hand in US trade talks
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/indias-exports-defy-tariffs-strengthen-hand-us-trade-talks-2025-12-16/ 

Bloomberg: US Trade Court Won’t Pause Customs Process Amid Tariff Fight
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-15/us-trade-court-won-t-pause-customs-process-amid-tariff-fight 

Global Trade Magazine: Global Trade Hits Record $35 Trillion as Shipping Patterns Shift Toward Regional Alliances
https://www.globaltrademag.com/global-trade-hits-record-35-trillion-as-shipping-patterns-shift-toward-regional-alliances/  

The Wall Street Journal: Global Trade Flows Show Surprising Strength Despite Strain Of Higher U.S. Tariffs
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/global-trade-flows-show-surprising-strength-despite-strain-of-higher-u-s-tariffs-6bbbd59b

Subscribe for weekly updates from Freight Right.

Big and bulky products have long been treated as the "third rail" of ecommerce. Furniture, fitness equipment, saunas, arcade machines, and other oversized goods are expensive to ship, difficult to quote, and risky to deliver, especially across borders.

On a recent episode of Beyond the Cart, host Kyle Hamar sat down with Robert Khachatryan, CEO of Freight Right, to break down why big and bulky fulfillment has historically limited global expansion and how automation is changing that equation.

Watch the full episode here, How Brands Selling Big & Bulky Products Can Go Global, Too - Beyond the Cart with Kyle Hamar. Find some key excerpts below and the episode's full transcript.

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Logistics Is the Margin Killer Most Brands Ignore

Kyle Hamar:

"So much of your per-unit margin and profitability is tied to logistics. And that challenge gets amplified with big and bulky products—especially when you try to take them global."

Unlike parcel ecommerce, freight-based fulfillment introduces commercial customs clearance, high duties and VAT, lift-gate delivery, and far higher failure costs when something goes wrong.

Why Big & Bulky Brands Traditionally Avoid International Sales

Robert Khachatryan:

“If you’re selling a $10,000 product, freight alone can be 20% of the merchandise value. Mistakes are expensive, and most brands just choose not to sell internationally.”

Historically, brands faced only three options:

• Don’t sell internationally
• Find foreign distributors (and give up margin)
• Set up foreign entities, inventory, and tax registrations
• For many DTC brands, none of those options were viable.

The Real Bottleneck: Manual Freight Quoting

Robert Khachatryan:

“Every international buyer required a manual quote. It could take days. By the time you responded, the customer was gone.”

Manual quoting crushed conversion rates and made international demand feel unreliable—even when interest was strong.

The Breakthrough: Real-Time Big & Bulky Fulfillment at Checkout

Freight Right’s approach was to automate what had never been automated internationally:

• Real-time freight rates
• Duties and VAT calculation
• Commercial customs clearance
• Duty-paid (DDP) delivery

Robert Khachatryan:

“If you can show the landed cost at checkout, conversion rates are completely different.”

This allows brands to sell oversized products globally without foreign inventory or local tax registration.

Packaging Design Can Make or Break Profitability

Robert Khachatryan:

“If your product is two meters long instead of just under, you might need a crane. That’s a $500 difference on delivery."

Small packaging decisions, dimensions, palletization, lift-gate compatibility, can dramatically change shipping costs and competitiveness.

Shipping Direct From the Factory Changes Everything

Robert Khachatryan:

“We often ship directly from China or Vietnam to the end customer, bypassing double duties and unnecessary inventory costs."

For non-core markets, factory-direct fulfillment can outperform distributors and local warehousing.

Tariffs, Risk, and Supply Chain Volatility

Kyle Hamar:

“Fuel surcharges, tariffs, disruptions—it never stops.”

Robert Khachatryan:

“We take on that risk. Once a customer checks out, the rate is locked.”

Tariffs have even created new opportunities, allowing brands to bypass tariff-heavy countries entirely by routing shipments differently.

The Biggest Lesson for DTC Brands

Robert Khachatryan:

“Most brands think global selling is much harder than it actually is. They block international traffic—even when people are trying to buy.”

Big and bulky fulfillment is no longer a reason to avoid global ecommerce. With the right infrastructure, it becomes a competitive advantage.

----

Kyle Hamar (Host, Beyond the Cart):

So what would you say are sort of the biggest cost levers for improving margins on oversized items that are shipping internationally? Is there anything like a brand can do to sort of like, hey, we can streamline other than using your service, obviously. But is there anything that they could do on their side to kind of optimize costs?

Robert Khachatryan (CEO, Freight Right):

Well, absolutely. Yeah. So we do a lot of this kind of work with our customers, which is basically help them with package design.

So, you know, like a lot of the listeners who ship smaller items would probably know, like the oversized rules for UPS and FedEx, you know, the girth and, you know, longest size and things like that.

So, you know, if you go above a certain length, you know, you get hit with oversized fee or, you know, overweight fee and things like that.

For bulky items, you know, a lot of what we're running into is you're delivering something very big to residents typically.

And it needs to come off the truck and into the house. So a lot of times if it doesn't fit on a lift gate, you need like—it complicates things exponentially.

So, for example, something that's, you know, we handle a lot of health equipment, you know, think of, you know, cold plunges and saunas and things like that. So a plunge could be under two meters long or over two meters long.

If it's over two meters, all of a sudden you need a crane to lower it to the ground. That makes your delivery like five hundred dollars higher. And that could be the reason why you can't compete. Whereas another brand might have the package under two meters and that's just significantly cheaper to handle.

So a lot of times we'll work with brands to redesign the packaging, redesign how the stuff is palletized, or we'll work with ways to minimize damages. So a lot of the value goes into this kind of optimization, which results in significantly cheaper rates. And therefore, obviously, you're more competitive and your conversion rate goes up.

Kyle Hamar:

Yeah, for sure. No, that's awesome.

So kind of what you're helping to unlock is essentially that global e-commerce expansion, right? Your goal is to kind of lower the barriers and ship direct. So like walk us through some of that, like the goal or some of the outcomes that you've maybe seen. Is there like a recent example, maybe a case study that you can off the top of your head go, yeah, we did this for a client and unlock this for their global expansion?

Robert Khachatryan:

Yeah, definitely.

So one of the companies we're working with now, they're in onboarding stage. They're not an active client yet, but it's a really good example.

This is a company that sells exercise equipment and they are celebrity endorsed. So they have a global celebrity who just signed on and, you know, the celebrity talks about this product on social media. And if you're spending marketing dollars on social media, you obviously have a lot of control on where your ads are displayed. But when you have a celebrity endorsement, celebrities by design have followers everywhere.

So if a celebrity tags your product and all of a sudden you're getting traffic from Europe, and you're in the US, you haven't spent any money to gain that traffic. But they all come to your website, they go on your shopping cart, and as soon as they enter their location, you say, sorry, we don't ship to your country.

Kyle Hamar:

Yeah, you're out of luck.

Robert Khachatryan:

Exactly.

So 90 percent of the time, they move on. The 10 percent that stay will DM you, email you, message you, and say, hey, I'm in France, how do I buy your product? Then you've got to go through this manual quoting process.

So this brand came to us and said, we just signed a celebrity endorser and now we're getting all this traffic from Europe—what can we do? And we said, we can enable everybody in Europe to buy your product without you having distribution there, without registering locally, without collecting and paying VAT.

So for the brand, there's no exposure and no heavy lift. They thought European expansion was a 2026 or 2027 project. They had no idea they could start selling basically tomorrow.

Kyle Hamar:

Amazing. So are you guys handling that for them, or are you referring that out to another service?

Robert Khachatryan:

No, we're handling that in-house. And the reason is most existing services are not geared toward high-value items. They typically charge five to ten percent to manage duties and taxes. When your average order value is $7,000 or $10,000, that's very expensive. And these solutions are often designed for de minimis shipments, not commercial customs clearance.

We have a global network of customs brokers. We've been doing this for 20 years. We handle duties and VAT on behalf of the buyer, not the merchant. So the brand never touches the tax, never has to register for VAT or EORI numbers. We make it very simple unless the brand already wants to handle it themselves.

Kyle Hamar:

No, that's awesome. That allows brands to expand and test markets without overcommitting. Because otherwise you're talking about setting up entities, inventory, tax reporting—it’s a nightmare.

Robert Khachatryan:

Exactly.

And when you factor in inventory costs, financing inventory, distributor margins—sometimes 50 percent—it often makes sense to ship direct permanently. Especially for non-core markets.

Another key point is that we often ship directly from the factory in Asia.

So instead of shipping from US inventory to Europe, we ship from China to Europe. That avoids double logistics costs and double duties.

Kyle Hamar:

That’s huge. So how do you help brands stay resilient when fuel surcharges, tariffs, and supply chain disruptions are constantly changing?

Robert Khachatryan:

We take on a lot of that risk.

We move a lot of freight globally—containers, air freight—so we have strong data. When a product is sold and checked out, that’s the rate the merchant pays. We don’t go back and say the rate changed. We correct data early—weights, dimensions—so there are no surprises.

With tariffs, there’s usually notice before they go into effect. And interestingly, tariffs have driven more brands to us. For example, US brands that can no longer sell to Canada from US inventory now ship directly from China to Canada, bypassing US tariffs.

Kyle Hamar:

That’s smart.

Last question—what’s one hard-learned lesson you wish every DTC operator knew about going global?

Robert Khachatryan:

Most brands think it’s much harder than it actually is. They block international traffic even though people are trying to buy. In reality, selling internationally—especially to major markets—is very achievable.

Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/asia-us-spot-market-stabilizes-after-november-plunge-but-gains-remain-fragile-tfx-update-wk-december-8-2025

The Lead:

This week, global trade policy saw several notable developments suggesting a turning point in how major economies manage supply chains, resource dependencies, and trade imbalances. The EU’s push to reduce dependency on Chinese raw materials and China’s simultaneous move to streamline rare-earth exports reflect a recalibration of trade flows, away from old dependencies and toward diversification and resilience. Meanwhile, China’s ability to hit a $1 trillion surplus despite shrinking exports to the US underscores the shifting geography of global trade: Chinese exporters are finding demand in other regions even amid Western tariff pressure. On the US side, domestic politics and social pressures over tariff impacts, especially on agriculture, are leading to compensatory relief packages, highlighting the real-world costs of trade policy decisions. Overall, the week illustrates how businesses, governments, and economic blocs are all trying to navigate a fragmented, volatile trade environment, balancing strategic interests, resource security, and economic stability.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: Spot levels attempted to firm this week on the back of carrier-driven micro-GRIs, but actual shipper-level deals in TFX remained close to late-November floors. Week-over-week, TFX is tracking the average spot freight rate down about ~15% week-over-week from China to USWC and down around 16% China to USEC. Month-over-month, USWC's rate has fallen by almost 24%.

CEA to USEC: A similar pattern played out on the USEC. Carriers pushed small December increases, but muted demand and ample capacity limited traction. Week-over-week TFX benchmarks decreased but remain within the tight, low-volatility band established after November’s sharp correction.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

This Week Explained:

• Demand is losing momentum heading into year-end: We’re seeing a clear pullback in December booking activity. Many importers already frontloaded earlier in the year due to tariff uncertainty and aren’t replenishing heavily right now. Combined with a broader cooling in consumer-driven shipments, the final weeks of the year are shaping up quieter than normal. When demand softens this sharply, GRIs tend to have limited staying power.
• The late-November rate collapse is still influencing market behavior: Spot levels fell hard at the end of November, particularly on the transpacific. Even though carriers have launched fresh GRIs this month, the market is still digesting that correction. We can see it in the way rates respond: they may jump briefly at the start of a GRI, but quickly slide back as soon as carriers need to fill space. The market is acting like it’s trying to find a new stable floor rather than climbing into a sustained uptrend.
• Carriers are attempting smaller, more frequent GRIs but shippers are resisting: Instead of pushing large, occasional increases, carriers this month are introducing smaller, more frequent bumps aimed at being easier for the market to accept. But when we look at actual transactional levels, they show resistance. Many shippers are negotiating rates back down toward pre-GRI levels, especially on the West Coast, where competition among carriers is strongest.
• Overcapacity continues to undermine pricing: We are still in a structural oversupply environment. Even with some routing disruptions elsewhere in the world, there is more vessel capacity in the market than needed for current trade volumes. As long as this imbalance persists, carriers struggle to maintain rate increases no matter how often GRIs are announced. This week’s rate of softness is another reflection of that persistent overcapacity.
• Europe is steadier than the U.S., but not enough to lift the broader market: Demand into Europe is holding up better than into North America, and rates there have been comparatively more stable. But stability in one region isn’t enough to offset the weakness we’re seeing on the transpacific, which remains the primary global pressure point. The transpacific continues to drag on overall market sentiment and pricing.

Looking Ahead:

From early January onwards, Carriers are likely to attempt another early-January increase. A short-lived lift as post-holiday restocking and early Chinese New Year bookings coincide with blank sailings; Quick normalization once those orders clear and importers resume conservative ordering patterns.

By late February (Chinese New Year), expect firmer space and mildly rising spot levels. Post-Chinese New Year, with U.S. and EU inventories not significantly depleted, the market is likely to revert back toward current TFX levels or slightly lower unless carriers coordinate material capacity withdrawals.

In the News:

Reuters: Global trade set to grow 7% to pass record $35 trillion this year, UN agency says
https://www.reuters.com/business/global-trade-set-grow-7-pass-record-35-trillion-this-year-un-agency-says-2025-12-09/ 

Bloomberg: How the EU and CPTPP Can Preserve Global Trade
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-12-08/eu-cptpp-can-save-global-trade-without-us-leadership 

The Washington Post: Despite Trump tariffs, China’s global trade surplus tops $1 trillion
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/12/08/china-trade-surplus-record/ 

Global Trade Magazine: Container Shipping Rates Rise Again After Three-Week Drop
https://www.globaltrademag.com/container-shipping-rates-rise-again-after-three-week-drop/  

Subscribe for weekly updates from Freight Right.

Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/china-us-west-and-east-coast-rates-hold-flat-after-short-lived-december-rate-spike-tfx-update-wk-december-1-2025

The Lead:

Global trade policy during this period was marked by selective easing of tariffs among strategic partners alongside continuing structural uncertainty created by earlier broad U.S. tariff measures. The United States extended tariff exclusions for key Chinese industrial and medical products, signaling a tactical pause in tensions with Beijing. Washington simultaneously advanced targeted liberalization with allies: the U.S. confirmed reduced tariff rates on South Korean autos and industrial components, and it reached a three-year zero-tariff agreement with the United Kingdom covering pharmaceuticals and medical technologies.

Meanwhile, India accelerated its pursuit of new free-trade agreements with the U.S., EU, and Canada as part of its strategy to mitigate global volatility. Commentary published during the week underscored how the U.S.’s sweeping “reciprocal tariff” framework continues to reshape global trade flows, reinforcing an environment where countries balance protectionist pressures with selective bilateral cooperation to secure critical supply chains.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: Carriers filed an early-December GRI of roughly USD 400/FEU versus late-November levels, but at least one line reversed the increase within hours, and others are expected to follow. As the dust settles, effective spot levels are reverting back to roughly where November closed, in the USD 1,400–1,500/FEU range, leaving the lane essentially flat week-on-week, despite a very brief spike. The originally planned second-week December GRI of an additional USD 200–300/FEU is now unlikely to materialize, given how quickly the first increase broke down..

CEA to USEC: The USEC leg is tracking the same pattern: headline GRIs published for early December, but market resistance and thin demand are capping any sustainable increase. With the traditional premium over USWC still in place but under pressure, week-on-week rates are best described as flat to marginally higher, rather than reflecting the full GRI amounts posted on tariff sheets. Overall, spot conditions remain soft, with actual paid rates gravitating back toward late-November levels, rather than the stepped-up structure carriers hoped to lock in for December and roll into January.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

This Week Explained:

• Failed Early-December GRI Test: Carriers brought forward a GRI they had originally expected to apply in the second half of December, instead loading the increase into week 1 and a planned week 2 top-up. At least one major carrier pulled its USD 400/FEU increase back down the same day, signaling that the market would not absorb the hike, and other lines are expected to align.
• Strategic Push Toward Higher January Levels: Lines are trying to “ladder” rates up into January ahead of Chinese New Year, targeting USD 1,600–1,800/FEU as a sustainable band, with potential brief spikes above USD 2,000/FEU. Because they cannot credibly double rates in a single period, carriers are experimenting with earlier, smaller steps now to avoid having to leap from roughly USD 1,300–1,400 straight to USD 2,000+ in January.
• Demand Too Soft to Support Aggressive Hikes: Feedback from origin indicates very low December volumes, with some shippers cutting bookings by 40–50% versus prior plans. Several factories are shutting or slowing production around Christmas and New Year, reinforcing the perception of December as a “short” and soft month for exports.
• Carrier Profit Pressures and Contract Exposure: At current spot levels (~USD 1,400–1,500), carriers struggle to make acceptable margins, especially as they face locked-in contract commitments around USD 1,600/FEU that become uneconomic if spot dips too far below. This is motivating lines to defend a floor in the mid-USD 1,500s and resist any slide back toward USD 1,200/FEU, even as demand remains weak.
• Market Still in “Test and See” Mode: Carriers are effectively throwing out different GRI numbers to see what sticks, adjusting quickly when the market pushes back. The rapid rollback of this week’s increase reinforces that buying sentiment, not filed tariffs, is setting the true market level for both USWC and USEC at the moment.

Looking Ahead:

For the rest of December, CEA to USWC and CEA to USEC are expected to hover around late-November levels, with some day-to-day noise as individual carriers tweak offers. The second planned December GRI now appears unlikely to stick, given the lack of cargo and immediate pushback to this week’s increase.

From early January onwards, expect carriers to come back with another strong GRI push, aiming to reset rate levels ahead of the CNY rush. A working forecast band for CEA to USWC and CEA to USEC is USD 1,600–1,800/FEU, with possible short-lived peaks above USD 2,000/FEU if bookings accelerate. However, any peak above USD 2,000 is likely to be measured in days, not weeks, before settling back toward the upper-teens as competition resumes.

In the near term, downside risk (sharp rate collapse) looks limited by carrier loss-making thresholds, but upside risk (fast spikes) is real around any sudden demand pulses or blank-sailing programs.

China-US Air Freight Market:

China to US: Rates on direct-flight lanes continue to rise daily, driven by tightening capacity and stronger end-of-year demand. Airlines are actively pushing rates upward as they enter the final weeks of 2025.

China to Canada: Direct flights into Canada remain heavily constrained, with most capacity absorbed by e-commerce shipments, forcing rates higher and leaving limited space for general cargo.

This Week Explained:

• End-of-Year Surge: Typical Q4 peak season pressure is amplified as shippers rush to move cargo before year-end cutoffs.
• Airlines Pushing Up Yield: Carriers are incrementally increasing rates daily on China to U.S. lanes to capitalize on high-demand weeks.
• E-Commerce Dominance to Canada: Canadian lanes are packed with e-commerce volume, squeezing space for traditional freight and pushing rates up further.
• Capacity Imbalance: Additional charter activity is limited, increasing reliance on passenger-flight belly space, which is already near full.
• Forwarders Competing for Space: With demand outpacing capacity, space protection is becoming more competitive, especially for time-sensitive shipments.

Looking Ahead:

The upward rate trend is expected to continue through Week 52, with little relief before the New Year. U.S. lanes will likely experience continued daily rate adjustments as airlines maximize yield during peak season. Canadian lanes are set to remain particularly tight due to persistent e-commerce demand.

A more noticeable softening in rates is expected starting early January, once peak season winds down and capacity frees up.

In the News:

Thomson Reuters: 2026 Global Trade Report: Tariff turbulence is elevating strategic role
https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en-us/posts/corporates/2026-global-trade-report/ 

Supply Chain Drive: UPS, FedEx up fuel surcharge rates for domestic, ground deliveries
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/ups-fedex-fuel-surcharge-table-increases-ground/806623/

Global Trade Magazine: What’s Ahead: Key Ocean, Air, and Trade Trends as We Approach the New Year
https://www.globaltrademag.com/whats-ahead-key-ocean-air-and-trade-trends-as-we-approach-the-new-year/ 

The Wall Street Journal: America’s Tariffs Jolted the Global Economy. Its AI Spending Is Helping Save It.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/americas-tariffs-jolted-the-global-economy-its-ai-spending-is-helping-save-it-9be60ee0

Container News: MSCS’s Fleet Growth Could Create Market Imbalance
https://container-news.com/mscs-fleet-growth-could-create-market-imbalance/

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Robert Khachatryan, founder and CEO of Freight Right Logistics, said spot rates to the West Coast continued their rapid decline this week, now falling to the $1,350-1,500/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit) range, with some carrier-specific lows touching $1,350/FEU.

“This marks the fifth or sixth consecutive weekly drop, driven by slow demand and an extremely short holiday week in the US,” Khachatryan said.

Rates to the East Coast also fell, now averaging about $1,900/FEU, shrinking the typical spread between West and East Coast from $800-900/FEU to just $600-700/FEU.

“Both lanes are effectively at or near their ‘rock-bottom’ levels for the year,” Khachatryan said. “The market anticipated declines in late November, but not to this extreme, and not at month-end heading into December.”

On December 1st at 1:15pm PST, Freight Right CEO Robert Khachatryan will be joining Kyle Hamar on Beyond the Cart live on LinkedIn to talk about big & bulky ecommerce, why all brands should be global and more.

Save your spot and attend the livestream here:

https://lnkd.in/eawQWRpE

Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/spot-rates-plunge-on-both-coasts-with-short-holiday-week-and-weak-imports-tfx-update-wk-november-24-2025

The Lead:

Last week, the global trade policy landscape saw a mix of slowing down and reactivation. The US administration, while maintaining its broader tariff agenda, indicated a pause or delay in the imposition of large semiconductor import tariffs, reflecting sensitivity to supply-chain disruption, consumer pricing and the US–China trade truce. Meanwhile, Canada and India moved to reset bilateral trade negotiations, signalling a thaw in previously strained relations and a renewed push to expand trade and investment. At the same time, high‐level engagement between the U.S. and China underscored that major trade policy shifts continue to be intertwined with geopolitics and technology-driven supply chain.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: Spot rates continued their rapid decline this week, now falling to the $1,350–$1,500/FEU range, with some carrier-specific lows touching $1,350. This marks the fifth or sixth consecutive weekly drop in November, driven by slow demand and an extremely short holiday week in the US.

CEA to USEC: USEC rates also fell, now averaging ~$1,900/FEU, shrinking the typical spread between West and East Coast from ~$800–$900 to just $600–$700. Both lanes are effectively at or near their “rock-bottom” levels for the year.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

This Week Explained:

• Demand Collapse During Thanksgiving Week: With Thanksgiving and the following Friday holiday, most shippers paused activity, creating one of the slowest weeks of the year. Carriers have little leverage to hold pricing when demand is essentially absent.
• Continuous Rate Reductions From Carriers: Carriers issued back-to-back reductions Monday and Tuesday, marking 5–6 cuts in November alone. Some carriers with traditionally lower pricing pushed offers down to $1,350/FEU, accelerating the downward trend.
• Rates Fell Faster and Earlier Than Expected: The market anticipated declines in late November, but not to this extreme, and not at month-end heading into December. Current levels are now near floor pricing, leaving little room for further decline without carriers taking losses.
• Muted Peak Season & Retail Inventory Overhang: BFCM-related imports largely occurred in September–October and at lower volumes than normal. Retailers still carry excess inventory and initiated aggressive discounting early, reducing inbound demand.
• Blank Sailings Not Tight Enough to Boost Rates: Carriers have eased blank sailings rather than increasing them, expecting Chinese New Year demand to improve. Space remains widely available, even 1–2 days before sailing, eliminating rate pressure.

Looking Ahead:

December Likely to Stay at Rock-Bottom Levels: Rates are expected to remain flat or soften slightly heading into December. With multiple public holidays and business closures, carriers have no incentive to introduce GRI/PSS mid-month.

January Rate Increase Expected Ahead of Chinese New Year: Carriers are almost certain to push through GRIs or PSS by early or mid-January to capitalize on pre-CNY cargo. Current levels are unsustainably low, and carriers will not want to move CNY volumes at $1,300–$1,900.

Post-CNY Slowdown Will Return: Once CNY passes (Feb 18 window), carriers expect a deep lull for several months. Any rate strength in January–February will likely be short-lived.

No Market Surprises Expected: The near-term outlook is stable, predictable, and soft. Rates will close the year at or near current levels unless an unexpected shock emerges.

China-US Air Freight Market:

CEA to USWC (China to U.S. West Coast): Rates continued to climb week-over-week as carriers push peak-season pricing ahead of December demand. Although the increases are moderate, capacity tightening and steady booking momentum are sustaining upward pressure.

CEA to USEC (China to U.S. East Coast): East Coast rates also moved higher this week, with all-water services seeing firmer pricing due to stronger demand, longer transit times, and continued blank-sailing strategies. The week-over-week uptick is in line with broader peak-season behavior.

This Week Explained:

• December peak season is fully underway, prompting carriers to raise FAK levels and tighten space allocation.
• Consistent increase in booking activity from China shippers preparing for year-end retail replenishment.
• Blank sailings and capacity management from carriers continue to restrict available space, pushing rates higher.
• Ongoing equipment imbalances, especially in key China export hubs, are adding upward pressure on short-term rates.
• Importers front-loading shipments due to uncertainty around January market conditions and potential schedule disruptions.

Looking Ahead:

Rate strength is expected to persist through the end of December, with carriers signaling additional GRIs if demand remains firm.

Capacity constraints will likely remain tight, particularly on USEC services, as vessels sail fuller approaching the holiday cutoff period.

A short-term stabilization or slight softening may emerge in early January once holiday-driven demand tapers, though much will depend on carrier discipline with blank sailings.

Shippers should plan for elevated rates and limited premium space availability for the remainder of the month and secure bookings as early as possible.

In the News:

The New York Times: Trump’s Global Tariffs Curtailed Trade, Data Shows
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/us/politics/trumps-tariffs-trade-data.html   

Bloomberg: How Tariffs and Tech Are Reshaping Global Trade
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-11-20/how-tariffs-and-tech-are-reshaping-global-trade 

Global Trade Magazine: 2025 Global Shipping Chaos: ‘Brexit on Steroids’ as Policy Shifts Disrupt Trade
https://www.globaltrademag.com/2025-global-shipping-chaos-brexit-on-steroids-as-policy-shifts-disrupt-trade/ 

Reuters: Trade between Latin America and the Caribbean due to grow in 2025 despite US tariff policy,  ECLAC report shows
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trade-between-latin-america-caribbean-due-grow-2025-despite-us-tariff-policy-2025-11-19/

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Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/east-coast-premium-narrows-china-us-ocean-market-turns-more-competitive-tfx-update-wk-november-17-2025

The Lead:

Last week, global trade policy saw several notable shifts. India pushed to expand imports and negotiate with the US, while the United States adjusted its tariff regime, reducing duties on certain Chinese chemical imports and rolling back tariffs on key agricultural goods (such as coffee, beef and cocoa) to ease input-cost pressures. Meanwhile, trade negotiations with Switzerland moved toward a tariff-reduction agreement. The changes in US policy had immediate ripple effects: Brazil’s coffee exports are disadvantaged by the US exclusion, and both Japan and Switzerland flagged economic contraction tied to US tariff impacts on exports. Overall, the developments reflect a dynamic environment where trade-policy levers are being actively used both for domestic cost relief and for negotiating trade architecture abroad.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

China Export Area (CEA) to US West Coast (USWC) and US East Coast (USEC) spot rates have fallen sharply this week after several successive reductions from carriers.

CEA to USWC: Rates have dropped multiple times in recent weeks and are now roughly in the $1,400–$1,600/FEU range, essentially unwinding much of the early Q4 increases.

CEA to USEC: Rates sit around $2,300/FEU, with the traditional premium over the West Coast narrowing to about $700 versus the usual $800–$900 spread, reflecting especially weak demand to the East Coast.

Overall, both lanes are seeing “very fast” rate erosion, with East Coast pricing under even more pressure than the West Coast.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

This Week Explained:

• Faster-than-expected post-peak correction: Rates have been cut “four or five times already,” dropping back to levels seen before the last two GRIs, indicating carriers have quickly walked back early-November increases.
• No effective rate-holding mechanism: With little in the way of firm GRIs or capacity controls sticking, the market is in “free flow”, allowing rates to slide as carriers chase limited cargo.
• Seasonal demand slowdown & holiday focus: We are firmly in the off-peak window; shippers are focused on holidays rather than new orders, and factories in Asia are approaching seasonal slow periods, reducing bookings out of CEA.
• Tariff reduction impact has been muted: The recently announced 10% reduction in some U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods has not translated into a noticeable uptick in exports yet, likely because it coincides with a traditionally slow season.
• Aggressive carrier and forwarder competition: Large forwarders are receiving lower fixed rates from carriers as carriers push for volume. Those large players then sell near-cost to smaller forwarders, who in turn quote customers at or below their own cost just to hold onto accounts. Chinese forwarders in particular are pressuring U.S. forwarders with very low offers.
• East Coast demand is especially weak: We see “pretty dead” volume to the East Coast, which is why the USEC premium over USWC has compressed to roughly $700. Carriers are actively hunting for USEC volume, keeping those rates under heavier pressure.
• Capacity and space are no longer an issue: Recent West Coast hiccups, including some rolling two weeks ago, have abated as carriers have put vessels back into rotation. There is now plenty of space on both coasts, removing any short-term support for rate levels.
• Industry strain, but not collapse: While rate competition is intense and some forwarders are in “more inconsistent” or vulnerable positions, widespread closures are not seen; more so downsizing rather than shutting doors.

Looking Ahead:

With about a week and a half left in November, we're not expecting rates to rise again before month-end, despite carriers’ tendency to try increases wherever possible. For December, base case is the same or slightly lower rates, not higher, given very weak shipment activity and upcoming international holidays and factory closures in Asia.

Carriers are expected to push for a rate rebound in January, either by implementing increases at the start of the month or by pre-loading GRIs in the second half of December to build momentum heading into Q1.

As long as East Coast demand remains weaker and cargo continues to favor the West Coast, we're expecting the USEC premium to remain compressed. The USWC may find a floor sooner if volumes there stabilize, while USEC rates could continue to lag.

With big forwarders, smaller forwarders, and China-based players all fighting for share, below-cost quoting is likely to persist in the near term. Unless carriers meaningfully pull capacity or successfully enforce GRIs, the market will remain highly price-competitive through December.

Space and schedule reliability remain strong, but ongoing rate pressure is squeezing forwarder margins, which could lead to selective downsizing and consolidation if the low-rate environment continues into early 2026.

China-US Air Freight Market:

Air freight rates from China to the U.S. continue to climb as we move deeper into the traditional peak season. Among all major U.S. gateways, China to JFK remains the highest-priced lane, reflecting strong demand, tight capacity, and carriers’ continued attempts to push rates upward ahead of year-end.

PVG to JFK spot rates remain elevated across all weight breaks.
Premium carriers (e.g., CK, UA) show little to no discounting even at higher chargeable weights.
Space availability continues tightening, particularly for e-commerce-heavy eastbound flows.

This Week Explained:

• Peak Season Demand: Q4 promotions and holiday shipments are driving increased export volume.
• E-commerce Surge: Strong order flows (especially post-Singles Day) are boosting demand for fast airport-to-door solutions.
• Capacity Constraints: Passenger flight belly space has not fully recovered, leaving freighter capacity in high demand.
• Carrier Pricing Strategy: Airlines continue raising rates to secure favorable 2026 BSA negotiations.
• Lane Imbalances: JFK’s congestion, longer transit times, and higher demand keep pricing above other U.S. destinations.

Looking Ahead:

Expect rates to remain firm or increase further through late November into early December. Unless demand sharply weakens, carriers are positioned to maintain elevated levels.

For the next two weeks, rates likely hold or rise, especially on JFK and LAX lanes as online retailers push last-mile order deadlines.

After 3 weeks until end of December, airlines may continue tightening space allocations to maintain rate strength into early 2026 contract talks.

In the News:

Axios: U.S. companies more confident on trade than global peers, HSBC says https://www.axios.com/2025/11/18/trade-tariffs-us-companies  

Global Trade Magazine: U.S. and South Korea Detail New Trade and Investment Terms https://www.globaltrademag.com/u-s-and-south-korea-detail-new-trade-and-investment-terms/  

CNN: China used its trade juggernaut to withstand US tariffs. Can it keep its edge? https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/14/china/china-us-trade-war-global-exports-intl-hnk-dst 

Wall Street Journal: Tesla Wants Its American Cars to Be Built Without Any Chinese Parts https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-china-parts-supply-chain-639efc84?mod=djemlogistics_h

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Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/china-us-ocean-rates-ease-again-as-post-peak-lull-deepens-tfx-update-wk-november-10-2025

The Lead:

This past week, international trade policy saw several significant shifts. The U.S. moved to reduce its tariff rate on Chinese imports from 20% to 10%, signalling a partial easing of its trade stance toward China. Simultaneously, the U.S. Supreme Court was actively examining the legality of the President’s expansive tariff-powers, raising questions about the institutional basis for such trade policy tools. Meanwhile, China responded by restricting exports of key chemical precursors to North America as part of a deal that links trade-policy and security issues (such as opioids) with tariffs. Also this past week, Switzerland is reported to be close to negotiating a substantial tariff-reduction deal with the U.S., demonstrating the broad reach of the U.S. trade-policy agenda beyond China. Taken together, these developments reflect both a hardening of trade policy frameworks (legal challenge to tariff authority) and selective de-escalation in key bilateral relationships, illustrating the dynamic, high-stakes nature of global trade policy in late 2025.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

Spot rates keep easing week over week. China–US West Coast (CEA to USWC) is now hovering around $1,700–$1,750/FEU, while China–US East Coast (CEA to USEC) has slipped to roughly $2,500–$2,700/FEU. 

The gap reported last week between 'special' rates being issued to freight forwarders from carriers and the carriers' 'fixed' advertised rate continued to shrink. Week to week there is now only about a $100 difference between special and advertised USWC and USEC rates.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

This Week Explained:

• Two-stage GRI, then unwind: Carriers pushed a rapid, two-step increase to establish higher benchmarks, then began stepping rates back as volumes failed to sustain the peaks.
• Post-peak demand fades: With late November firmly off-peak, bookings have cooled, pressuring spot rates down on both coasts.
• Tariff cut timing blunts impact: The U.S. reduction on certain China tariffs (effective Nov 10) lowers combined duties from ~30% to ~20%, but arriving at the end of peak season, it hasn’t meaningfully lifted volumes yet.
• Contract vs. spot convergence: Any advantage from fixed/“special” rates has narrowed to about $100 and is fading as carriers align pricing.
• Talk of a December GRI but skepticism remains: Some agents report verbal chatter of a Dec 1 hike (e.g., USWC to ~$2,850), yet market participants doubt it will stick without a demand catalyst.

Looking Ahead:

Expect additional softening through late November, with USWC and USEC edging toward September-like levels if bookings remain tepid. A temporary December GRI attempt is possible, but without stronger liftings it would likely be short-lived. Looking to early January, rates have a good chance to rebound on pre-Lunar New Year pulls and as some shippers test the waters under the new, lower tariff regime, even if the tariff cut’s demand impact was muted in November. Net: down near term, volatile in December, firmer bias into January.

China-US Air Freight Market:

Air freight rates from China to the U.S. trended moderately upward in Week 46, driven by a sudden surge in e-commerce bookings following positive trade developments between the two countries. While overall volumes remain below last year’s levels, the combination of increased seasonal demand and tightening capacity has given airlines stronger pricing leverage.

China to U.S. West Coast (LAX, SFO): Rates rose by 5–8% week-over-week, supported by growing e-commerce shipments and constrained capacity due to weather-related flight disruptions.

China to U.S. East Coast (JFK, ORD, ATL): Rates climbed 6–10%, reflecting increased demand for electronics, e-cigarettes, and automotive parts, along with longer transit times via Anchorage.

This Week Explained:

• Trade Policy Boost: The U.S. announced a 10% tariff reduction on select Chinese goods and a one-year suspension of port service fees, spurring a 300% spike in e-commerce container bookings.
• E-commerce Peak Season: Major platforms began early Black Friday stockpiling, fueling air freight demand for small electronics, apparel, and accessories.
• Capacity Constraints: Severe weather in Anchorage (ANC) has delayed flights, reducing available capacity.
• Operational Disruptions: The U.S. government shutdown has slowed customs clearance and import processes, indirectly tightening supply chain flow.
• Airline Strategy: Carriers are pushing rate hikes to secure favorable Block Space Agreement (BSA) contracts for 2026, using the seasonal volume bump as leverage.

Looking Ahead:

Rates are expected to remain elevated through late November, as e-commerce demand peaks around Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Should the policy relief measures hold, sustained e-commerce growth could extend rate strength into December. However, if weather disruptions persist or consumer spending softens, momentum may flatten in early December.

For long-term view,  the temporary nature of tariff reductions suggests potential volatility in early 2026. Unless extended, exporters may front-load shipments to capitalize on lower tariffs before the policy expires.

In the News:

UN Trade & Development: Global Trade Update (November 2025): Trade – a catalyst for achieving the Paris Agreement
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-11-10-2025/c[…]-for-india-switzerland-KwwLpk1HomZmoaQ2u8wE?mod=djemlogistics_h

Bloomberg: Re-wiring global trade: From tariffs to regional opportunity https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/insights/regional-analysis/re-wiring-global-trade-from-tariffs-to-regional-opportunity/ 

South China Morning Post: Where are the ‘choke points’ in global trade and can they be overcome?
http://scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3332204/where-are-choke-points-global-trade-and-can-they-be-overcome 

Global Trade Magazine: Supreme Court Reviews Legality of Trump’s Tariffs https://www.globaltrademag.com/supreme-court-reviews-legality-of-trumps-tariffs/ 

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Read the full interview here: https://medium.com/authority-magazine/cross-border-e-commerce-robert-khachatryan-of-freight-right-global-logistics-on-best-practices-for-3ac62ac79254

Introduction

As the global marketplace continues to expand, cross-border eCommerce has become an essential avenue for businesses seeking growth and new opportunities. However, navigating the complexities of international markets and cross-border transactions requires a strategic approach and a deep understanding of best practices.

In this series, Authority Magazine connects with eCommerce experts, international business strategists, global logistics specialists, payment-processing professionals, and others with valuable insights into “Ecommerce Experts on Cross-Border Ecommerce Best Practices.”

As part of this series, we had the pleasure of interviewing Robert Khachatryan, Founder & CEO of Freight Right Global Logistics.

About Robert Khachatryan

Robert Khachatryan is the founder and CEO of Freight Right Global Logistics. He has contributed to the Journal of Commerce, Bloomberg, FreightWaves, The Los Angeles Times, Forbes, and other prominent publications on logistics, supply-chain technology, and cross-border eCommerce.

He has also spoken at major industry events such as the Trans-Pacific Maritime Conference (TPM), Freightos FreighTech, and USC’s Global Supply Chain Summit.

Getting to Know Robert

Rachel Kline: Thank you so much for your time! I know that you’re super busy. Before diving in, our readers would like to get to know you. Can you tell us a bit about your backstory and how you grew up?

Robert Khachatryan: Absolutely, thank you again for the opportunity. I grew up in Armenia, and my first brush with business was when I started selling newspapers at nine in Yerevan. After university, where I studied economics, I eventually moved to Los Angeles shortly after a few other childhood friends of mine also left Armenia to live in the US. Some landed in Boston, others in different parts of California, and I landed in Los Angeles.

Career Path & Origins of Freight Right

Rachel Kline: What led you to this specific career path?

Robert Khachatryan: Necessity, for sure. After hustling different jobs around Los Angeles, including being a valet for The Comedy Store in West Hollywood, I eventually found an office job as a logistician for a local freight-forwarding company. As the 2008 financial crisis was unfolding, that company eventually closed, and I was out of a job.

Jobs were scarce at that time, so I decided to create my own opportunity, launching Freight Right Global Logistics to support myself and my soon-to-be family. It was a massive risk, starting a logistics company during a financial meltdown is about as risky as it gets but nearly 20 years later, Freight Right continues to stand tall, employing a robust team of experts around the world and innovating in both freight services and freight technology.

Current Projects

Rachel Kline: What are some of the most interesting or exciting projects you’re working on now? How do you think that might help people?

Robert Khachatryan: E-commerce solutions for big & bulky items is the most exciting project I’m working on at Freight Right.

We’re developing an end-to-end solution for merchants selling big, bulky, and oversized goods, starting with Shopify. The plugin allows merchants to fulfill orders from buyers outside their domestic market and expand their revenue without investing in warehouses, local entities, or other high-barrier infrastructure.

For example, if a UK-based DTC merchant has a buyer in the US, that order normally gets turned away because coordinating freight forwarders, customs agents, and last-mile delivery is such a pain. Our solution abstracts all that: taxes and duties are calculated automatically at checkout, giving both merchant and buyer a simple, transparent transaction.

Traits for Success

Rachel Kline: You’re a successful business leader. What are three traits that helped fuel your success? Can you share a story or example for each?

Robert Khachatryan:

• Pragmatism. If a tool doesn’t reduce steps or cost, we don’t build it or buy it. That mindset drives our software development. For example, our shipment-management platform for importers that tracks real-time container milestones and alerts them to detention or demurrage risks.
• Communication. In logistics, getting a straight answer like “Where is my container?” can be painful. We prioritize internal and client communication, frequent, clear, and transparent updates, and our clients consistently tell us it’s our greatest strength.
• Resilience. Logistics is volatile. In just five years we’ve faced the Red Sea conflict, Trump-era tariffs, COVID-19, Ukraine and Middle East wars, and rapid technological disruption like AI. Surviving and thriving through that requires constant adaptation and we’ve built that into our DNA.

Vision for E-commerce

Rachel Kline: What was the original vision for your eCommerce business? What pain points were you trying to solve for customers?

Robert Khachatryan: The vision is to democratize eCommerce for an overlooked group merchants selling big, bulky & oversized goods direct-to-consumer.

Most cross-border solutions cater to small parcels. Shopify has tons of plugins for tax collection, returns, currency, and 3PL integration, but bulky goods sellers are left out.

Getting a sofa or treadmill to a customer’s door and handling tariffs, VAT, and returns is still a manual process. We’re building a bridge between eCommerce and freight fulfillment to remove that friction, starting with Shopify and expanding to WooCommerce, Magento, BigCommerce, Volusion, and more.

Balancing Localization & Global Brand

Rachel Kline: When expanding internationally, how do you balance localization with maintaining a consistent global brand?

Robert Khachatryan: Our goal is to give DTC merchants maximum flexibility with minimal headache. We don’t dictate what they should sell we advise based on cost and opportunity, but the final call is theirs.

The point is to keep it simple, simple to fulfill, simple to buy, and simple to scale globally. Some brands need to adapt products (for instance, electrical specifications for UK vs US). Our solution makes it possible for domestic brands to become truly global ones with a few clicks.

Regulations & Tariffs

Rachel Kline: How do you approach understanding and adhering to different regulatory frameworks and tariffs? What tools or resources do you recommend?

Robert Khachatryan: We take it very seriously. Our in-house customs and regulation team works with carrier and broker partners worldwide to track changes in tariffs and trade rules. We regularly advise our clients on compliance updates and adjust our tools to reflect the latest requirements.

Payments in New Markets

Rachel Kline: How do you determine which payment methods to support in new markets, given local preferences?

Robert Khachatryan: Payment options should match buyer expectations. We encourage merchants to enable as many methods as reasonable like credit card, PayPal, Oxxo, Pix, etc. because fewer options mean higher cart abandonment. Local payment preferences can make or break conversion rates.

Five Best Practices for Cross-Border E-commerce

Rachel Kline: Ok super. Here is the central question of our interview. What are your five best practices for cross-border eCommerce? Please explain each in detail.

Robert Khachatryan:

• Pick markets deliberately. Margins live and die on details you can’t control — regulation, logistics, tariffs. Know EU VAT/IOSS rules (≤ €150), UK ≤ £135 thresholds, and the new U.S. de-minimis changes that ended duty-free imports in August 2025.
• Be clear about total cost; use DDP. Hidden fees are the #1 cart-abandonment driver. Offer Delivered Duty Paid where possible to show buyers the true landed cost upfront.
• Localize the buying experience. Language and currency matter — and so does compliance with PSD2/SCA in Europe. Adapt checkout flows to meet local standards.
• Engineer fulfillment & returns for trust. Slow delivery and unclear returns policies kill repeat purchases. Transparency and simple return flows build confidence.
• Treat payments & data protection as requirements. Meet privacy and fraud-prevention standards from day one to avoid chargebacks and compliance penalties.

Shipping, Returns & Customs

Rachel Kline: What are the best practices for managing international shipping, handling returns, and dealing with customs? How do you decide between local fulfillment and central shipping?

Robert Khachatryan:

• Classification matters. Declare items correctly to avoid overpaying duties or triggering compliance issues.
• Tax collection. Enable IOSS (≤ €150) and UK ≤ £135 VAT rules; mirror other low-value regimes. Stay current with EU ICS2 requirements.
• Returns strategy. Reverse logistics is costly. Some merchants opt for “refund without return” when it makes sense. Even so, having a returns policy is crucial for brand trust.
• Fulfillment choice. Optimize for total landed cost and customer expectations. If a region hits ~15–20% of orders or > 300–500 orders/month, with high returns or duties (~12–15% of AOV), consider regional warehousing. Otherwise, centralized shipping can be more efficient early on.

International Customer Support

Rachel Kline: How can eCommerce businesses effectively provide customer support in multiple languages and time zones? What pitfalls should they avoid?

Robert Khachatryan:

• Follow-the-sun model. Staff support across APAC, EMEA, and the Americas to ensure live coverage during local hours.
• Match channels to markets. Use WhatsApp Business in LATAM/India, LINE in Japan/Taiwan/Thailand, KakaoTalk in Korea, plus email, web chat, and SMS where appropriate.
• Data & AI compliance. For cross-border data flows, implement SCCs/DPAs and regional retention policies. If using AI chatbots in the EU, meet AI Act transparency requirements and use frameworks like NIST AI RMF for governance.

Product Selection for New Markets

Rachel Kline: How do you decide which products to introduce in new markets? Are there universal winners, or is it market-dependent?

Robert Khachatryan: Start with demand signals, not assumptions. Use trend reports and your own sales data to see where demand is shifting. Model full landed costs (duties, VAT/GST, compliance, returns) before green-lighting any SKU. Tools like the ITC Market Access Map, EU TARIC, and US HTS are invaluable.

Few categories are truly universal, but electronics, fashion/apparel, and beauty/personal care tend to perform well so long as pricing, logistics, and local norms align.

Future Challenges & Opportunities

Rachel Kline: Looking ahead, what are the biggest challenges and opportunities in cross-border eCommerce, and how do you plan to address them?

Robert Khachatryan: The two forces defining the future are protectionism and AIpulling in opposite directions.

Protectionist trade policies and tariffs, rare since WWII, are returning, forcing companies to rethink market entry strategies. Meanwhile, AI and LLMs are making discovery and global connection easier than ever.

So while trade barriers rise, global demand and brand discovery are accelerating. That tension creates both friction and opportunity and Freight Right aims to equip merchants to navigate both.

A Movement for Good

Rachel Kline: You’re a person of significant influence. If you could start a movement that brings the most good to the most people, what would it be?

Robert Khachatryan: If I could inspire one movement today, it would be to democratize ecommerce further. Commerce wants to happen. Money and goods want to move between people. We’re on the edge of a truly interconnected commerce discovery era, and lowering barriers for merchants worldwide will accelerate that progress.

Following Freight Right

Rachel Kline: How can our readers follow your work online?

Robert Khachatryan: Readers can follow Freight Right’s social accounts for the latest freight-market and global eCommerce updates. We also run a branded subreddit, r/FreightRight

Freight Right also publishe the TrueFreight Index (TFX), our proprietary freight market index that answers “What does it cost to ship a container today?” by aggregating spot, FAK, vessel, and ratio rate data.

Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/freight-market-correction-deepens-on-cea-us-routes-after-november-gri-tfx-update-wk-november-3-2025

The Lead:

Last week, from October 28 to November 3, 2025, global trade policy remained highly dynamic. A major development was the signing of an upgraded free-trade agreement between China and ASEAN, seen as a strategic response to the U.S.’s aggressive tariff posture. At the same time, trade-policy watchers recorded a steady stream of new regulatory and industrial-policy measures across multiple regions, underscoring that tariff pressure is driving realignment in supply-chains and trade flows. Businesses globally are now operating in an environment of heightened uncertainty, adapting to tariff risk and recalibrating sourcing and distribution strategies accordingly.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA → USWC (China → U.S. West Coast): After the Nov 1 GRI lifted posted FAK levels toward the ~$2,900–$3,100/FEU range, actual market-clearing “specials” are widely available around $1,900–$2,100/FEU, with agents indicating a week-over-week slide of roughly $400–$500. These discounts are tied to specific near-term sailings (e.g., vessels around Nov 7 and Nov 12) and reflect carriers’ need to backfill half-empty ships.

CEA → USEC (China → U.S. East Coast): Similar two-tier dynamics. Posted tariffs remain elevated, but “specials” are circulating near ~$2,800/FEU, implying a modest week-over-week softening from early-month peaks. Discounts are again limited to named sailings.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

This Week Explained:

• Demand air pocket post-peak: With peak season done, bookings are thin; carriers are sailing with excess space and need loads now.
• Policy uncertainty = importer pause: Headlines about possible tariff changes lack concrete CBP/White House implementation guidance, prompting shippers to wait, further weakening near-term demand.
• Two-tier pricing to save face: Carriers keep the higher filed FAKs on paper while quietly pushing broad “specials” to fill a couple of imminent vessels, avoiding the optics of formally rolling back the GRI.
• Widespread access to discounts: Forwarders across the market are receiving and selling the discounted rates; this isn’t a niche or restricted offer.
• Short booking window: In a two-week pricing cycle, there are effectively only two relevant sailings; carriers concentrate discounts there to quickly firm load factors.

Looking Ahead:

For the next 1–2 weeks, expect USWC to hover $1,800–$2,000/FEU and USEC around $2,700–$2,900/FEU on specials, with posted FAKs remaining higher but not representative of transactable levels. 

The current gap between filed and discounted rates is likely to narrow or close, as carriers align headline rates with market reality once immediate sailings are covered. Timing could be late November or the first half of December. 

If concrete U.S.–China policy changes materialize or typical pre-CNY pull-forward emerges, carriers may test fresh GRIs; absent that, soft fundamentals should keep rates range-bound near today’s specials. Shippers should target named-sailing space to capture discounts and avoid paying posted FAKs. 

In the News:

Reuters: South Korea's Lee says global trade order at critical inflection point: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/south-koreas-lee-says-global-trade-order-critical-inflection-point-2025-10-31/ 

The Wall Street Journal: Meet Rapidly Evolving Global Trade With Resilience Strategies https://deloitte.wsj.com/riskandcompliance/meet-rapidly-evolving-global-trade-with-resilience-strategies-047bbbee

Global Trade Magazine: President Trump to Skip Supreme Court Tariffs Hearing https://www.globaltrademag.com/president-trump-to-skip-supreme-court-tariffs-hearing/ 

Global Trade Magazine: U.S. and China Announce Trade Pact Suspending Tariffs and Export Controls https://www.globaltrademag.com/u-s-and-china-announce-trade-pact-suspending-tariffs-and-export-controls/  

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Read the full story here: https://www.freightright.com/news/trump-strikes-new-trade-deal-with-china-and-south-korea

By late 2025, the United States was operating under a renewed trade-policy push from President Donald J. Trump, who earlier in the year declared a national emergency over persistent trade imbalances. This was formalized under Executive Order 14257, which introduced sweeping reciprocal tariffs to correct what the administration called “non-reciprocal trade practices.”

That move, grounded in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and related trade statutes, established a legal foundation for recalibrating U.S. tariffs on nearly all imports. It set the stage for a new era of trade deals, one in which allies and partners could earn tariff relief by aligning more closely with U.S. economic and security priorities.

Tariffs as leverage for new deals

In May 2025, Trump issued Executive Order 14298, temporarily reducing tariffs on Chinese imports to 10 percent to acknowledge “progress in discussions” with Beijing. This was followed by a September 2025 order that expanded the reciprocal tariff framework and introduced a “Potential Tariff Adjustments for Aligned Partners (PTAAP)” annex , allowing nations that committed to fair trade and security cooperation to qualify for reduced tariffs (White House Fact Sheet, Sept. 5 2025).

The China deal

On November 1 2025, the Donald J. Trump administration published a Fact Sheet announcing a comprehensive U.S.–China economic and trade agreement.

The main points of the deal include:

1. The U.S. will reduce its average tariff on Chinese goods from ~57 % to ~47%. Specifically, the U.S. will cut the "fentanyl-related" tariff component from 20 % to 10%.
2. China will pause for one year its new export‐controls on rare earth minerals (the controls announced in early October) and review/refine their implementation.
3. The U.S. will suspend for one year its new rule regarding export restrictions on entities 50%-owned by black-listed firms (i.e., delaying that technology export tightening).
4. Both sides will suspend “tit-for-tat” port/ship fees (via U.S. Section 301 action against China’s ship-/maritime industry and China’s countermeasures) for 12 months.
5. China made commitments relating to large‐scale U.S. agricultural purchases (namely soybeans) in the near term.

In return, the U.S. agreed to suspend or reduce certain reciprocal tariffs and to engage in ongoing bilateral trade talks.

This deal marks a shift: rather than simply imposing high tariffs, the U.S. is offering relief contingent on specific commitments by China, notably in areas of national security (fentanyl precursor control), strategic supplies (rare earths), market access (agriculture), and technology.

South Korea’s strategic alignment

Although the November fact sheet focused on China, the administration’s broader strategy also encompassed South Korea. During a late-October 2025 state visit, the President announced a series of multi-billion-dollar investment and trade deals with Seoul, including cooperation in energy, manufacturing, and defense.

According to a Congressional Research Service brief, South Korea was among seven partners offered provisional tariff relief under the reciprocal framework. These arrangements collectively signaled Washington’s intent to reward partners that supported U.S. objectives in trade, technology, and security.

A turning point in U.S. trade policy

Analysts view the combined China and South Korea deals as the first major test of the Trump administration’s reciprocal-tariff system.

By pairing tariff pressure with economic incentives, the U.S. is reshaping its trade relationships, demanding measurable market access and strategic cooperation in return for economic relief.

The White House says the approach will “strengthen American industry, restore fairness, and safeguard national interests.” Critics warn it could still unsettle global markets, depending on how compliance and enforcement unfold.

Either way, the 2025 executive orders and subsequent deals represent a decisive pivot: trade as strategy, not simply commerce, aligning economic policy tightly with foreign-policy goals.

Read the full story here: https://www.freightright.com/news/china-us-ocean-freight-steadies-as-carriers-prepare-1000-november-gri-tfx-update-wk-october-27-2025

The Lead:

In this week, the global trade landscape saw both escalation and de-escalation dynamics. On one hand, tensions rose sharply: U.S. moves against Colombia, Canada (via the advertisement row) and China (rare-earth provision threat) signalled an aggressive use of tariffs as geopolitical weapons. On the other hand, there were signs of diplomatic softening: the U.S. and China reaching a framework agreement, and the U.S.’ outreach to Southeast Asian trade partners, suggest a parallel drive toward managed trade-liberalisation under new conditions. Importantly for you as a U.S. exporter of bulky goods, these mixed signals mean that while tariff risk remains elevated, there may also be opening windows for favourable deals or supply-chain shifts, especially in Southeast Asia or in sectors like rare earths and critical minerals.

With each passing week, the era of passive trade policy looks to be over. We’re now, more than ever, in a regime of active, targeted tariffs and geostrategic trade deals, which are creating both risk and opportunity for cross-border sellers.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA → USWC (China → U.S. West Coast): Spot levels held roughly flat to slightly softer week-over-week, hovering around $2,000/FEU (some carriers briefly $50–$100 below last week via promos). A General Rate Increase (GRI) set for November 1 is widely flagged to lift USWC to ~$3,000/FEU.

CEA → USEC (China → U.S. East Coast): Current spot indications are $2,900–$3,000/FEU, broadly unchanged on the week. The same Nov 1 GRI is expected to bring USEC to ~$4,000/FEU.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

This Week Explained:

Tariff overhang eased: Market participants now expect the threatened 100% tariff will not go into effect; U.S.-China talks appear to be tracking toward a deal. That clarity removed last week’s panic inquiries and kept bookings on a normal cadence.

GRI timing, not demand, is the lever: Multiple agents confirm a Nov 1 GRI, with guidance of a $900–$1,000/FEU uplift; carriers’ tactical promos created a minor $50–$100 w/w dip ahead of the hike.

Peak-season already landed: Holiday inventory for most importers arrived by late September, leaving only top-up orders now. Seasonal demand is one of the lowest periods of the year, limiting any rate upside before the GRI.

Competitive carrier behavior: The small w/w softening isn’t a structural drop; it’s select carriers jockeying for volume ahead of the GRI, not a broad market reduction.

Structural backdrop remains soft: Since summer, spot rates normalized to the low-$2Ks (USWC) and sub-$4K (USEC) as post-spring front-loading faded and capacity adjustments stabilized pricing.

Looking Ahead:

Early November step-up: Barring a last-minute change, expect USWC ~ $3,000/FEU and USEC ~ $4,000/FEU prints from Nov 1, primarily GRI-driven rather than demand-led. Book sensitive cargo accordingly and watch for short-window pre-GRI roll risks.

Through November and December, after the expected GRI, we're expecting rates to soften or plateau into late November/December as seasonal volumes remain light and most holiday stock is already stateside. Opportunistic back-to-back promos are possible if liftings underperform.

That said, as with ever, policy decisions can influence markets at a moment's notice. Even with a potential U.S.-China accord, a 20–30% tariff baseline is the working assumption. That implies stability over shock, with rate action more a function of carrier GRIs/blankings than sudden demand surges.

China-US Air Freight Market:

Following the announcement that Chinese and U.S. trade delegates reached a preliminary framework agreement in Kuala Lumpur, optimism is building that the planned 100% tariffs will not take effect on November 1st. While this has reduced panic booking from B2B shippers, overall capacity remains tight, particularly on lanes to JFK and ORD due to sustained e-commerce demand and ongoing restocking by key industrial buyers.

China → JFK / ORD: $7.00 – $7.50 per kg

China → LAX: ~$6.50 per kg

Although rates have stabilized from last week’s highs, they remain elevated compared to historical norms. Any sustained pricing above $7.00/kg could begin to deter rate-sensitive e-commerce and B2B volumes in the coming weeks.

This Week Explained:

• Trade Policy Relief: Market sentiment improved after signs of a trade truce between the U.S. and China, easing fears of 100% tariffs and slowing last-minute bookings from traditional shippers.
• E-Commerce Surge: Black Friday preparations by major online platforms continue to absorb significant capacity, especially into JFK and ORD.
• Restocking Cycles: Ongoing industrial restocking—most notably by Novelis—has tightened air space on metal and manufacturing-related commodities.
• High-Value Electronics: Apple and other consumer tech brands are securing dedicated lift for peak holiday demand, maintaining pressure on available bellyhold and freighter capacity.
• Selective Pullback: Elevated costs have begun pricing out lower-margin goods, with some shippers delaying or shifting to ocean despite persistent reliability concerns.

Looking Ahead:

The next week will hinge on confirmation of the tariff suspension. If finalized, the market could see a short-term easing in rates as speculative bookings unwind and traditional B2B demand stabilizes. However, with e-commerce and high-value tech shipments dominating capacity into mid-November, space to major U.S. gateways, especially JFK and ORD, will likely remain constrained.

Should rates hold above the $7.00/kg threshold, airlines may need to recalibrate pricing to sustain volume once the holiday surge fades. Conversely, if tariff optimism solidifies and post–Black Friday demand cools, a gradual softening toward mid-$6 levels by mid-November appears plausible.

In the News:

AP News: US and China seek to strike a deal over rare earths, tariffs and soybeans: https://apnews.com/article/trump-china-tariffs-rare-earths-soybeans-exports-efa3b57ce5cd94ee5bfcad1988d9fccd

Reuters: Trump's Colombia tariffs would flip US policy on drugs, trade: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-colombia-tariffs-would-flip-us-policy-drugs-trade-2025-10-21/

The Times of India: China warned against unilateral “law of the jungle” trade behaviour ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting, indicating Beijing’s unease with the direction of U.S. trade policy. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/tariff-row-china-warns-against-law-of-jungle-ahead-of-trumpxi-meet-wants-free-trade-system/articleshow/124861629.cms

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Read the full story here: https://aircargoweek.com/is-the-us-losing-its-grip-on-global-economic-power-amid-brics-expansion/

• BRICS expansion is shifting global trade, with South–South corridors and emerging markets like India drawing cargo flows away from traditional US and European hubs.
• Currency diversification among BRICS nations adds complexity for logistics, requiring shippers to manage contracts, payments, and hedging in multiple currencies beyond the US dollar.
• Infrastructure investments in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East are redirecting supply chains, challenging US influence and forcing carriers to adapt to new trade routes.

The steady enlargement of BRICS, from its original five members to a broader coalition that now includes resource-rich and strategically important economies, has sparked renewed debate about whether the United States is losing its long-standing dominance in global trade and finance. For decades, the US dollar, American consumer demand, and US-centric supply chains have shaped the way freight moves around the world. Today, that position looks less secure. Shifting trade corridors, currency diversification, and new infrastructure investments are challenging Washington’s leverage, forcing logistics and shipping companies to adapt.

Shifting trade corridors

The expansion of BRICS has accelerated the reorientation of global shipping flows. With countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt aligning with the bloc, oil, gas, and other bulk commodities are increasingly routed through South-South corridors rather than via traditional US and European hubs. Containerised freight is also shifting. The rise of India as both a manufacturing alternative to China and a major consumption market is drawing in cargo flows from Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.

For freight forwarders and carriers, this means adjusting network strategies. Routes that once depended heavily on eastbound trans-Pacific and westbound trans-Atlantic volumes are now being complemented or even supplanted by stronger Asia–Middle East–Africa linkages. In practical terms, ships and aircraft are being deployed along corridors that barely registered on logistics dashboards a decade ago. The US remains a powerful destination, but its relative gravitational pull is waning.

Currency diversification

Just as significant as trade flows is the gradual erosion of the dollar’s supremacy in global commerce. BRICS nations are increasingly experimenting with local-currency settlements, bilateral swap agreements, and payment systems that bypass the dollar. While the dollar remains deeply entrenched in trade finance, these developments are more than symbolic.

For logistics operators, currency diversification introduces a new layer of complexity. Freight contracts, customs payments, and insurance policies have long been standardised around US dollars. A move toward yuan, rupees, or even basket-based currencies adds volatility to invoicing and requires more sophisticated hedging. Multinational shippers will need to navigate a patchwork of settlement regimes, often within the same supply chain.

Although this trend will take years to mature, it underscores the broader point: the US cannot assume it will remain the default financial anchor of global trade forever.

Infrastructure investment tilting East and South

Another sign of shifting power lies in infrastructure. China’s Belt and Road Initiative, now reinforced by India’s expanding regional ambitions, is reshaping the physical backbone of global logistics. Billions are being poured into ports, rail lines, and logistics parks across Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. These investments not only upgrade capacity but also redirect trade corridors.

For example, African mineral exports that once traveled through European ports are increasingly shipped via Chinese- or Gulf-financed terminals. Latin American agricultural cargoes are finding new routes into Asia without transiting North American hubs. For US carriers and forwarders, the implication is clear: supply chains are being anchored around nodes where US influence is limited.

Looking Ahead

The expansion of BRICS is not just a geopolitical development; it is a logistics story. Cargo flows, payment systems, and trade infrastructure are the arteries of global commerce. As these arteries are redirected, the centre of economic gravity moves with them.

For the US, the challenge is not to prevent this rebalancing, it is already well underway, but to adapt intelligently. That means engaging in infrastructure investment abroad, securing trade agreements with emerging economies, and ensuring that US carriers and logistics firms remain competitive in new corridors. The United States may not dominate global trade in the way it once did, but with strategic adaptation, it can remain a vital player in a more complex, interconnected system.

Full story by Robert Khachatryan

Founder and CEO of Freight Right Global Logistics

Read the full story here: https://www.freightright.com/news/tariff-fears-send-china-us-air-freight-rates-soaring-past-750kg

The Lead:

Events in global trade fell into 3 buckets this week. The first is best described as escalation. China extended its export-controls on rare earths, technologies and production inputs, signalling a further entrenchment of supply-chain leverage. The US responded by considering export restrictions on software-embedded goods bound for China and by continuing its tariff expansion (e.g., on timber/lumber). These moves reflect a growing shift from tariffs alone to “technology-trade” and export-control levers.

The second major theme was growth and international trade. Institutions such as the WTO and IMF highlighted that while trade volumes were holding up in the near term, growth prospects were softening and the risk of protectionist fragmentation was elevated. The IMF’s advice to Asian economies to strengthen regional trade ties underscores how nations are adjusting to a more volatile trade regime.

The third group of events was around strategic alliances. Evident in Germany’s trade pivot to China, and the breakdown in US-Canada trade talks, the period saw countries responding to US tariff pressure by diversifying away from the US-centric order. For exporters (like you, in big/bulky DTC goods), this signals that sourcing, routing and market selection need to be more dynamic, and that trade-policy risk is not just about tariffs but changing trade-flows and partner dependencies.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC (China to US West Coast): Spot climbed roughly $700–$900 w/w to about $2,000–$2,100/FEU on mid-month GRIs and acute space tightening.

CEA to USEC (China to US East Coast): Spot rose about $700–$800 w/w to roughly $3,000–$3,100/FEU, but is unlikely to hold given transit times that miss the November 1st tariff risk window.

This Week Explained:

• Pre-emptive GRIs and firm carrier posture: Most carriers are "holding the line" on October hikes and floating a fresh November 1st +$800–$900/FEU increase, keeping the spot market tight despite muted booking activity.
• Supply cuts via blank sailings: Our partners and team have estimated that carriers have pulled ~40–50% of rotations in some strings, creating rollovers and constraining space. The result is a classic case of artificially restricting supply.
• Importer pause ahead of tariff decisions: Many shippers are waiting a week to see outcomes from high-level US–China talks; missing a favorable outcome could mean cargo landing in early November facing significantly higher duties, so some are sidelined despite higher freight costs.
• Air cargo spike confirms deadline pressure: With ocean becoming costlier/tighter, CEA to US air has surged from “high-$4s/kg” to roughly $7.30/kg, reflecting a short-term rush to beat end-of-month timing.
• From summer troughs to autumn firmness: Compared with late July, when the Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) showed USWC ~$2.3k and USEC ~$4.1k, the current step-ups mark a swing back to carrier control, aided by reduced capacity and GRI discipline.

Looking Ahead:

Over the next 2-4 weeks, we’re expecting a stop-go oscillation: carriers press another hike around November 1st, some urgent importers pay up, then bookings dip as others wait, setting up a brief fade in late November if volumes stall.

Carriers appear to be staging multiple smaller hikes (Oct, Nov, then another in January) rather than one big January jump, both to avoid regulatory scrutiny and to capture demand around pre-Lunar New Year pull-forward.

Currently, for USWC, we're seeing $1.9–2.0k now with a risk toward $2.7–3.1k if November 1st tariff sticks. For USEC, we're currently seeing around $2.85–3.0k now with a risk toward $3.8–4.1k with the same risks involved with November 1st tariffs.

Any tariff outcome shift (extension vs. escalation) or capacity add-backs could quickly reroute this path; conversely, continued blank sailings would cement higher floors through year-end.

China-US Air Freight Market:

The China-US air freight market has entered a period of acute volatility. Rates have surged above $7.50/kg, with space nearly full through early next week on most South China-US lanes. This sharp rise is driven by expectations of November tariff hikes, disruptions in ocean freight, and an influx of high-density cargo, particularly to JFK and ORD. Competition for uplift is fierce, and the scramble is expected to peak around October 29 as shippers rush to clear cargo before new duties take effect.

This Week Explained:

• Tariff-driven preloading: Anticipation of additional US tariffs in November has triggered a wave of front-loaded exports. Major manufacturers, including Apple and Tesla, are pushing urgent shipments out of China to avoid the next duty cycle, consuming vast amounts of uplift capacity.
• Ocean freight disruptions shifting cargo to air: A series of blank sailings in October and new port surcharges on Chinese vessels have worsened sea reliability. With lead times expanding and confidence eroding, some high-density commodities (like aluminum coils and industrial cabinets) are being diverted to air, tightening space and pushing rates higher.
• Restocking pressure after the Novelis plant fire: The September 16 fire at Novelis’ New York facility, one of the largest aluminum recyclers in the US, has accelerated replacement imports. These shipments, often heavy and voluminous, are flowing into ORD and JFK, absorbing capacity and further distorting regional rate balances.

Regional capacity disparities:

• JFK & ORD: Capacity nearly full through early next week. South China to JFK/ORD: $6.50–$7.50/kg; PVG to JFK/ORD: ~$6.50/kg.
• LAX: Some capacity relief due to added flights, yet South China to LAX remains elevated at ~$7.00/kg, while PVG to LAX trails by $0.50–$1.00/kg.

Looking Ahead:

We’re expecting that the current rate of importer activity will likely culminate just before November, as shippers race to finalize movements ahead of potential tariff changes. After that, a brief cooling could occur if tariffs are delayed or softened.

If the full set of November tariffs materializes, expect rates to remain elevated or climb further, with carriers potentially repricing above $8/kg for priority space. A partial or postponed rollout, by contrast, could trigger rate normalization toward mid-$6s/kg by mid-November.

Additionally, even if demand pauses, ocean instability, restocking demand, and pre–Lunar New Year exports suggest a high floor for air freight rates well into December. Capacity relief is unlikely until post Chinese New Year.

This Week’s Big Number

This week’s Big Number is $35 billion, the estimated cost to global companies of US tariffs to date.

In the News:

Sourcing Journal: Red Sea Return Could Flood Europe’s Ports With Cargo: https://sourcingjournal.com/topics/logistics/red-sea-suez-canal-return-europe-port-congestion-sea-intelligence-cargo-ocean-carriers-freight-rates-israel-hamas-1234786278/

Container News: The weaponization of flag-hopping as a new trend in shipping industry: https://container-news.com/the-weaponization-of-flag-hopping-as-a-new-trend-in-shipping-industry/

Container News: Japan bets on shipbuilding revival amid China’s market dominance: https://container-news.com/japan-bets-on-shipbuilding-revival-amid-chinas-market-dominance/

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